NEW DELHI - With India's general elections due before May, a carefully
calibrated chorus is emanating from the ruling Indian National Congress party
camp about its chairperson, Sonia Gandhi's son Rahul Gandhi, as a strong
contender for the prime minister's post.
No sooner did the results of the recent state assembly elections - in which
Congress snagged three out of five states - trickle in that Congress leaders
quickly seized on the opportunity to launch All-India Congress Committee (AICC)
general secretary Rahul Gandhi as the party's new mascot. Claiming that he had
played a "crucial" role in the party's success at the hustings, Rahul, 38, was
heralded as the nation's next "youth icon".
Fortuitously for Gandhi, many recent political developments have
coalesced to his advantage. For starters, a majority of his nominees for party
tickets in the assembly elections won with huge margins. Out of 32 candidates
from the Indian Youth Congress, 22 emerged victorious. In Delhi, four out of
five leaders nominated by Gandhi earned victories. Other Gandhi-affiliated
winners numbered six in Rajasthan, eight in Madhya Pradesh, two in Mizoram and
one in Chhattisgarh.
At a post-elections press briefing, senior Congress leader and AICC leader
Veerappa Moily breathlessly extolled Rahul's virtues, calling him the party's
"star attraction". Moily's remarks only help underscore the Congress party's
larger game plan to raise the Gandhi scion's profile in the buildup to the
general elections.
Even if Gandhi's campaigning has produced only mixed results in the state
elections that were dominated by regional leaders and local issues, the party
thinks its overall success gives it leverage to cast Rahul in a bigger role.
There's no denying that the Congress was extremely wary of unveiling its
"prized asset". Gandhi's role was limited to sporadic public appearances in
which he made politically correct noises (poverty alleviation, women's
empowerment, youth leadership and so on). This was key to deflecting
perceptions that the Congress was being overzealous - or impatient - in
anointing him as the party's next supremo.
Had it not been for the Congress' good performance in state elections, the
party would have deferred its plans to unveil the latest Gandhi for bigger
responsibilities. But having achieved a modicum of success - with Congress
chief minister Sheila Dixit emerging victorious for a record third time in
Delhi - and issues like terror and inflation not cutting much ice with voters,
the Congress feels it can go ahead with the coronation of its prince. (Please
see Secrets of a
three-time winner
, December 13, 2008.)
If the Congress had been vanquished in the Delhi elections, the brickbats would
have fallen on Dixit. The positive outcome negated the perception of an
anti-incumbency wave, and party loyalists are now priming the Gandhi heir to
take his place in the sun.
According to AICC functionary Prithvi Raj Chavan, Rahul Gandhi will now play a
bigger role in the party. "He has become the third pole in the Congress after
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi," said Chavan
at a press conference.
Still, apart from the Gandhi "brand", what does the young politician bring to
the table? For one thing, age. In a national political landscape crowded with
octogenarians and nonagenarians (the main opposition party Bharatiya Janata
Party's chief L K Advani, a key prime minister aspirant, for instance is 81
years old), Rahul is being groomed to attract a crucial demographic - the
under-35 Indian voter who makes up 65% of India's 1.1 billion population. There
will also be a gargantuan vote bank of some 100 million first time voters for
the 2009 elections.
Rahul is a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family, the most prominent political
family in India. His father was former premier Rajiv Gandhi, who was
assassinated in 1991. Rahul was 14 years old when his grandmother, prime
minister Indira Gandhi, was assassinated. His great-grandfather, Jawaharlal
Nehru, was the first prime minister of India, and his great-great-grandfather
Motilal Nehru was a distinguished leader of the Indian independence movement.
"Rahul has emerged as a lead campaigner for the party because he has a great
appeal for the youth of the country and Youth Congress workers," said a party
worker. "He has contributed enormously to rejuvenate the campaigning style of
the 123-year-old party." In fact the party's victory in Rajasthan is being
attributed to the widely circulated photograph of Gandhi carrying mud as part
of shram daan, a ritual symbolizing him as the son of the soil. The
purpose was to further the aam-aadmi (common man) spiel, and downplay
Rahul Gandhi's Western upbringing and aristocratic lineage.
The metamorphosis of Rahul Gandhi from a shy and dimpled member of parliament
who gave the impression of being a diligent student of parliamentary politics
into a zealous organizational leader of the Indian National Congress can't be
discounted. Few can forget his diffident maiden speech in parliament, on
education, which was read out - sans any emotion - like a school essay rather
than the spunky narrative of a prime ministerial hopeful.
Gandhi's baptism into the hurly burly of politics began at the Congress' 82nd
plenary session in Hyderabad in 2006, after which he was inducted as a general
secretary and was firmly set on the path to a coveted role in the government.
Current events, however, have propelled a far-more-confident Gandhi to even
loftier heights.
Few Congress allies are averse to the party's "Rahul-as-premier" pitch. The
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a partner of the Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA), has lent its support with DMK patriarch and Tamil
Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi welcoming the suggestion of the young Gandhi
as the UPA's prime ministerial candidate. Even the Left parties - to whom
candidates like the current PM Dr Manmohan Singh and Home Minister P C
Chidamabaram may be anathema - are a tad more accepting.
Despite the strident promotion of Rahul, the Congress party itself has
officially not made any comment on the leadership issue. Sonia Gandhi snubbed
voters who struck up a chant for Rahul's nomination for prime minister.
Manmohan was doing a fine job, said party spokesperson Jayanthi Natarajan.
The Congress is still to announce its prime minister candidate for the coming
Lok Sabha, India's Lower House of parliament, elections. In the past, current
Prime Minister Manmohan was propped up as a potential candidate for the 2009
polls, with party leader Sonia Gandhi herself putting the stamp on Singh's
candidacy at a press event last year. According to one theory, however, Sonia
Gandhi inducted Manmohan as premier in 2004 just to keep the prime minister's
seat warm for Rahul who was still politically inexperienced.
However, even as Rahul Gandhi gathers credit for the Congress' successful
performance in the state elections, many feel he's yet to make a tangible
impact on the party's election prospects. For instance, the Congress' win in
Delhi was really Dixit's win. In Rajasthan, where the Gandhis campaigned
extensively, it was actually unassuming Ashok Gehlot who trounced established
royalty - the feisty ex-chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia of the the
right-wing BJP.
Rahul Gandhi appears to realize that his legacy and charisma may no longer be
sufficient to secure victory. It was perhaps due to this that he changed the
nomination culture in the Congress party by holding Indian Youth Congress
elections at the block, district and state levels. He has also made the right
noises about the party's dynastic culture and lack of internal democracy,
admitting he was a "symptom" of what is wrong with Indian politics.
If he succeeds in putting a new order in place, he might earn his place in the
Congress hierarchy. But there will be resistance from senior Congress leaders
who have been in queue for prime minister long before Rahul. Meanwhile, the
Congress would do well to think beyond dynastic politics and proactively
address problems within the organization that have haunted it in election after
election.
That - not Rahul Gandhi - will be the true litmus test for India's Congress
party in 2009.
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