Voters snub separatists in Kashmir
By Sudha Ramachandran

BANGALORE - The ballot has triumphed over the bullet in India's militancy-hit state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Recent elections to the J&K state assembly, while failing to give any political party a clear mandate to rule, saw an unexpectedly high voter turnout.

Compared with the 44% voter turnout in assembly elections six years ago, this time around 61.5% of Kashmir's 6.4 million voters showed up to vote, braving heavy snowfall and biting cold, and more importantly, defying separatists' call for a boycott of the poll.

While the election has been hailed in India as a "victory for democracy", neighboring Pakistan - which accuses India of

 

illegally occupying Kashmir - has rejected the elections as a "farcical" attempt to dupe the international community into believing that the people of J&K were free to elect their leaders.

The electoral verdict was fractured. While the pro-autonomy, pro-India National Conference (NC) picked up 28 seats in the 87-member assembly, the "soft-on-separatists" People's Democratic Party (PDP) won 21 seats, followed by the Congress with 17 and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 11. The Congress, which partnered the PDP in the previous government, has now joined hands with the NC to form J&K's new government.

The last time the NC and Congress were in an alliance together, they brazenly rigged the assembly election, triggering popular disaffection with the democratic process and prompting thousands of Kashmiri youths to take up arms. Will history repeat itself now? Or will the alliance write a new script for J&K and the region?

Discussion of the significance of the voter turnout has overshadowed the election results itself. A fractured verdict was expected, the surge at the polling booths was not. The voter turnout has been described as a "slap in the face of the separatists".

The Hurriyat Conference, an umbrella grouping of separatist organizations, had called on voters to stay away from participating in the election. Its leaders even warned the mainstream political parties to stay away from the poll, warning them of a "social boycott", if they contested the election. But their boycott call did not strike a chord with voters.

Not only did voters line up in larger numbers than in the 2002 election, but the number of contestants was also a record high. Voters showed up at polling booths on their own volition, not under coercion by the Indian security forces as in previous elections. Turnout in separatist strongholds was higher than anticipated. In fact, even activists from the most hardline of the separatist organizations, the Jamaat-e-Islami, were seen voting.

What makes the voter turnout all the more significant is that it has come at a time, when a sullen, anti-India mood was seen to have gripped the Kashmir Valley. A few months ago, massive protests rocked J&K; the Valley witnessed some of the biggest anti-India demonstrations since 1989-90, when a Pakistan-sponsored insurgency against the Indian state began.

Thousands of Kashmiris poured into the streets demanding azadi (freedom) from Indian rule, prompting several analysts to point out that India "was on the verge of losing Kashmir [to separatist/militants] again". Indeed, many warned that holding assembly elections amidst this surge of anti-India sentiment was a disastrous move as voters wouldn't show up at the polling booth.

The voter turnout has proved these skeptics wrong.

Clearly, the separatists were out of sync with the mood in the Valley. While they portrayed the election as a process that would "further entrench Indian rule in Kashmir" and sought to keep people away from it, "ordinary" Kashmiris saw it as an opportunity to address everyday issues. As in other parts of India, it was hopes for improvements to the quality of governance and access to bijli (electricity), sadak (road), pani (water) that drew voters to polling booths in the Valley.

Many Kashmiris said they want to an see improvement in their daily lives, and that they are tired of putting issues like better hospitals and roads on hold while they wait for azadi.

"The separatists frown on the discussion of development and environment issues as it is seen to be diluting the freedom struggle," a Srinagar-based journalist, who had been threatened by militants for writing on the need to clean up the Dal Lake, told Asia Times Online.

"By voting in large numbers, Kashmiris have signaled that they want better amenities now and cannot wait for their lives to improve until azadi happens," he said. "People cannot live on azadi slogans alone and that is all the separatists could offer. "

The hold of the separatists has been on the wane for some time now. As they have marginalized themselves by refusing to engage in negotiations with New Delhi or participate in elections. Their tacit backing of the militant and jihadi groups, and strategy of endless bandhs (shut downs) and demonstrations have only brought hardship and suffering to Kashmiris, many in the Valley have come to believe.

Change was evident in January last year when for the first time in 20 years protests erupted in the Valley on issues of development - electricity, roads, colleges, etc. Traditionally it has been the separatists who have called for bandhs and demonstrations. The protests last January were however called by ordinary Kashmiris such as students, teachers, clerks and orchard owners.

"We are witnessing a new transformation in politics in Kashmir," noted Kashmir analyst Amitabh Mattoo wrote in the Indian Express. "The ordinary Kashmiri is seizing every opportunity to achieve peaceful change, from the politics of the street to the politics of the ballot."

The decline of militancy in the Valley in the past few years has opened up space for ordinary people to speak up in public about ordinary problems. According to J&K police, the number of militant attacks fell from 1,100 in 2007 to 709 last year - a 40% decrease. In previous elections, militants had enforced the boycott call with violence and intimidation. They were surprisingly quiet during the recent election. This was an important reason for voters showing up in large numbers this time.

The recent election has opened up another opportunity for India to resolve its Kashmir problem. But will Delhi seize the opportunity?

The decline of the separatists has evoked much jubilation, even triumphalism among some in India. Indian officials are proudly pointing to the five-fold increase in voter turnout in J&K's volatile capital Srinagar, often described as a separatists' bastion. But turnout was still only 20% in the recent election compared with 80% in the 1983 assembly election. This shows how far India still needs to go to get urban Kashmiris to endorse the democratic path.

There is a danger that Delhi could end up misreading the message from the voter turnout. Separatism might be down, it is not dead in the Valley. While the separatists have been dealt a huge blow, they are far from decimated. People came out and voted in large numbers but this willingness to work with the democratic process does not mean their dreams of azadi have evaporated. Their sense of alienation from India remains deep.

Besides, while militant attacks have declined over the past few years, events in recent months - the rift between Pakistan's civilian government and the military, growing ceasefire violations and the fallout of the Mumbai attacks on India-Pakistan relations - suggest that India can expect a spurt of infiltration and militancy in Kashmir this summer. The security situation remains tenuous.

Omar Abdullah, J&K's new chief minister, has a challenging task ahead. People may have turned their backs on militancy but he will have to ensure that democratic institutions deliver. Addressing the daily problems of ordinary Kashmiris will be a priority of his government but to improve this, he will have to overcome rampant corruption in the system.

There is also the regional divide, Kashmir versus Jammu, that has existed for decades. This came to the fore during the protests in summer and has been underscored by the election results. Analysts are warning that if this divide is allowed to deepen it could trigger a communal division of the state.

Omar Abdullah is a younger member of Kashmir's most well-known political dynasty. He is the son and grandson of former chief ministers. As J&K's chief minister he has also inherited a fight that his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah first waged - a fight for regaining autonomy within the Indian constitution. Omar Abdullah will have to work with the Congress party to ensure that this autonomy becomes a reality. Only this genuine autonomy, which India once promised Kashmiris, has a real chance of taking out whatever wind remains in the separatists' sails.

Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.

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