Page 2 of 2 India, Russia regain elan of friendship
By M K Bhadrakumar
out into the open in support of India over the Mumbai strikes, it shall also be
Afghanistan on which Indian regional policy shall begin to make a new beginning
and careen away for the first time in a long while from US benchmarks and
expectations.
The punch line in the joint declaration comes almost innocuously. Sharing their
concern over the "deteriorating security situation" in Afghanistan, India and
Russia called for a "coherent and a united international commitment" to dealing
with the threats emanating from that country. The implied criticism of the
US-led war is obvious as also the rejection of the US strategy to keep the war
strategy as its exclusive prerogative. The Joint Declaration then
goes on to say, "Both sides welcome Russia's initiative to organize an
international conference in the framework of Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
involving its Member states and Observers."
New Delhi has come out into open support of a regional initiative on
Afghanistan, which Washington would have loved to stifle in its cradle. The
Indian stance is significant for various reasons. India has decided that there
is no need to mark time until the Obama administration finalizes its own new
Afghan strategy. It is asserting its own stakes independent of the US strategy.
Two, India is identifying with Russia, China and Iran, which is an immensely
significant happening in regional politics. Three, India is siding with a
Russia-led regional initiative on Afghanistan at a time when various
influential American opinion-makers have been floating the idea of a US-led
"regional approach" to an Afghan settlement that virtually allows the US to be
on the driving seat.
Most certainly, India is implicitly recognizing the SCO's relevance to South
Asian security. Afghanistan is a member of the SAARC and could act as a bridge
between South Asia and Central Asia. In essence, therefore, India is spurning
the US's much-touted "Great Central Asia" strategy that aims at diluting the
SCO's role in Central Asia and instead pins hopes on India as a counterweight
to the Russian and Chinese regional influence.
It is apparent that India is dissociating from the concerted US policy to keep
the SCO out of Afghanistan. Moscow has been vainly striving to carve out a
toehold for the SCO as a regional body while Washington has been discouraging
Afghan President Hamid Karzai from lending weight to the SCO-Afghanistan
Contact Group. More than anything else, the fact remains that the Russian
initiative on an SCO conference is intended as a challenge to the monopoly that
Washington has kept in determining the contours of any Afghan settlement.
Indeed, it opens up more possibilities for Karzai to expand his "strategic
autonomy" vis-a-vis Washington, which he has been inclined to exercise, even if
timidly, of late. Karzai has every reason to cooperate with a regional
initiative in which all the major powers surrounding Afghanistan such as
Russia, China, India and Iran are associated. The onus is now on the US and
Pakistan to explain why they should dissociate.
Of course, the US would have preferred to encourage the on-going Turkish
initiative to mediate Afghan-Pakistan talks. The latest three-way round
involving the presidents of Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan just concluded in
Ankara. Washington was happy that Turkey lent a hand in keeping the Afghan
peace process as an "in-house" affair - keeping "outsiders" like Russia or Iran
at arm's length. The SCO initiative is a needless intrusion, from the
US-Turkish perspective.
SCO stance on Afghanistan
A most significant aspect of the Russian-Indian Joint Declaration is its
deafening silence on the US-sponsored talks with the Taliban. The Russian and
Indian position is that there is nothing called "moderate" Taliban leaders,
whereas, the US is edging close to a formula that so long as the Taliban
leadership disengages and disowns the al-Qaeda, there should be no problem in
assimilating them as part of a coalition government in Kabul. In fact, the
second round of talks with the Taliban under Saudi mediation is due to take
place shortly.
In the context of the Mumbai blasts, the Indian attitude towards the Taliban
can only harden further, placing itself at odds with the US strategy in the
coming period. In a manner of speaking, the Russian-Iranian-Indian convergence
in bolstering the anti-Taliban resistance in the late 1990s is straining to
reappear, though in an entirely new form. Interestingly, Iranian officials also
held consultations recently in New Delhi regarding Afghanistan.
Without doubt, India would have given thought to the SCO's collective stance on
the Afghan problem prior to lending support for the regional body's initiative
to call an international conference. The Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin's
speech at the UN General Assembly session in New York on November 10 on behalf
of the SCO becomes the benchmark for New Delhi. Evidently, Delhi finds itself
in harmony with the major elements in Churkin's speech. The key elements were:
"Concerted joint action" by the international community is necessary to arrest
the "continuing deterioration of the military and political situation" in
Afghanistan.
The policy of isolating the extremist Taliban leaders should not be watered
down and any reconciliation should only include those Taliban cadres who are
"rank-and-file Taliban members who are not tainted by military crimes".
A system of "anti-drug and financial security belts" should be set up around
Afghanistan with the coordinating role of the UN and involvement of neighboring
countries.
The NATO must cease operations involving "indiscriminate or excessive use of
force, including bombings" that cause heavy civilian casualties. The level of
collateral damage in the military operations is hampering Afghanistan's
long-term stabilization.
An enduring Afghan settlement is "impossible without an integrated approach on
the part of the international community, led by the United Nations, and at the
same time without delegating to Kabul greater independence in resolving
inter-Afghan problems".
"The situation in Afghanistan cannot be fixed by solely military means".
Therefore, security must be backed by "real measures" towards socio-economic
revival.
"It is essential to ensure respectful attitude towards national and religious
values, centuries-long customs and traditions of the multi-ethnic and
multi-religious people of Afghanistan and on these grounds to achieve
conciliation of Afghanistan’s antagonistic forces".
In sum, the Mumbai attacks may prove to be a watershed in Indian regional
policies. Relations with Russia, China and Iran assume a new level of
importance in New Delhi's regional strategies. The gravitation towards the SCO
signifies the new thinking. Not too long ago, India visualized the SCO as
primarily an "energy club". Actually, India's petroleum minister routinely
represented India at the SCO summit meetings. Now, to envisage a crucial role
for an SCO-led regional initiative on Afghanistan, New Delhi has indeed come a
long way. Surely, Medvedev would have returned to Moscow quietly pleased that
he met a long-lost friend.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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