Page 2 of 2 NATO reaches into the Indian Ocean
By M K Bhadrakumar
In essence, Moscow has signaled to Washington (and Delhi and the other littoral
states) that it, too, can play NATO's game and has the capacity and the will to
fight a "war on terror" in the Indian Ocean.
The point is, Somalia has no effective government and the claim by NATO (or
India) to have received the permission/request from Mogadishu to undertake
naval patrolling in that country's territorial waters is untenable, to say the
least. It is also a grey area as to whether such patrolling in the high seas
will be in accordance with international law. NATO has taken cover under the
pretext that the deployment is in response to a request by UN secretary general
Ban Ki-moon, but then, Ban never acts without an eye on what Washington
desires.
Clearly, Russia is establishing its toehold as a matter of principle, asserting
that NATO and its "partners" in the region cannot arrogate to themselves the
role of policemen in the Indian Ocean.
New cold-war chill
Logically speaking, the endeavor on the part of the US and India should have
been to see if the problem of sea piracy could be handled through a regional
initiative by the littoral states in the first instance. India, in fact, has a
cooperation platform with the Indian Ocean rim countries, which could have been
activated. But this variant hasn't been explored. Instead, NATO - and India and
Russia - have hastened to assume the policemen's role. At a minimum, there
should have been prior regional consultations since this is a matter of
collective security, which also doesn't seem to have happened.
It is obvious that these first blasts of the new cold war have blown into the
Indian Ocean region against the larger backdrop of big-power relations. A new
command, Africom, has just taken over all US military operations in Africa with
effect from October 1. Previously, Africa came under the US Central Command.
The widespread perception in Africa is that Africom signifies a hidden US
agenda of a scramble for resources under the pretext of the "war on terror".
The Associated Press reported recently, "Resistance to Africom among African
governments has been so strong that [US] commanders abandoned their initial
ambitions to install a headquarters on the continent. It is based in Stuttgart
instead, with about two dozen Africom liaison officers posted at embassies."
It added, "Some African suspicions are rooted in the past. Washington's Cold
War legacy of supporting brutal dictators, coupled with Africa's tragic
colonial history, has spawned a distrust of foreigners. And many believe it's
no coincidence Africom was born as emerging powerhouses like China and India
embark on a new scramble for the continent's increasingly valuable resources."
US officials are on record that Africom and NATO envisage an institutional
linkup in the downstream. The overall US strategy is to incrementally bring
NATO into Africa so that its future role in the Indian Ocean (and Middle East)
region as the instrument of US global security agenda becomes optimal. For the
strategy to succeed in the Indian Ocean, however, NATO will need to align three
key littoral states - India, Sri Lanka and Singapore. Singapore is a Cold War
ally of the US. It overlooks the chokepoint of the Malacca Strait.
Endgame of Tamil insurgency
As for Sri Lanka, from the US point of view, its highly strategic location
overlooking the sea lanes connecting the Persian Gulf and the Malacca Strait is
of great value. The island is well placed to play the role of a permanent
aircraft carrier. Washington is pressing ahead with a military solution to Sri
Lanka's Tamil problem at any cost so that the Western-oriented Sinhalese
political elite can focus on aligning Colombo with US regional strategy and act
in concert with Delhi and Singapore.
It is plain to see that the end game of the Tamil insurgency has begun. The
continuation of the insurgency only compels Sri Lanka to seek assistance from
external quarters, including such sources as Iran, Pakistan and China. The
Sinhalese elite would gladly jettison such dependence and orientate policies in
a pro-West direction if provided the opportunity.
The US and India have been closely coordinating their policies on the situation
in Sri Lanka, keeping the geostrategy in the Indian Ocean in mind. Cleaning up
the Tamil insurgency and restoring Sri Lanka's capacity to work in concert with
US strategy in the Indian Ocean has become an imperative need. Both Washington
and Delhi are clear on this.
But for the US's strategy in the Indian Ocean, it is Delhi that is undoubtedly
the jewel in the crown. The plain fact is that like Singapore and Sri Lanka,
India also has impeccable geographical location, but additionally it also has
significant muscle militarily. The US has assiduously cultivated the top brass
of the Indian armed forces, especially the Indian navy. It has cleverly played
on the navy's ambitions and corporate interests to have an expanded,
pre-eminent presence in the Indian Ocean. The Indian navy is besotted with the
idea of gaining access to US defense technology. Delhi belatedly realizes that
the Indian navy is a powerful tool for foreign policy and diplomacy.
Equally, Washington has astutely worked on India's fears regarding a potential
"encirclement" by China. While a consensus may be lacking as regards the scope,
speed and effect of China's entry into the Indian Ocean region, the US and
Indian strategic communities agree that China is an important factor that needs
monitoring. China's increasing power, intentions and role in the Indian Ocean
inevitably figure as a "hot" topic in US-India cogitations.
Conceivably, the recently concluded US-India civilian nuclear deal will give a
fillip to military cooperation, in which navy-to-navy is already the oldest and
strongest salient. Washington insists that its embrace of India is as a
regional power and as an independent actor, especially as a naval power, and
the impetus is wider than "balancing" or "containing" China. Some influential
sections of the Indian strategic community would be inclined to take Washington
at its word.
On balance, therefore, it is entirely conceivable that Delhi made its move on
naval deployment in close consultation with the US within the framework of the
two countries' much-acclaimed "strategic partnership", while taking into
account the imperatives arising out of NATO's decision as well as the official
launch of Africom by the Pentagon.
To what degree the Indian decision targets the Somali pirates and to what
extent it remains a strategic move to dominate the Indian Ocean remains a
matter of speculation. Even a clever pirate of the Caribbean like Captain Jack
Sparrow would be left wondering whether to use wit and negotiation or to fight
- or to flee a most dangerous situation.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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