India lays out a red carpet for
Myanmar By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - India has come to realize that
the main beneficiary of strained India-Myanmar
relations will be China, whether for access to
all-important hydrocarbon energy sources,
transport corridors or strategic control of the
maritime waters of the Indian Ocean.
India
has thus accorded prime importance this week to
the visit of the second-most important person of
Myanmar's ruling military junta, General Maung
Aye. Apart from China and a few East Asian
nations, it is unlikely that any other country
would extend the kind of red carpet welcome laid
out for Aye by New Delhi.
Aye has had
audiences with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Vice
President Hamid Ansari, Foreign Minister Pranab
Mukherjee
and
the top brass of the defense forces. Bringing to
fruition a series of meetings between Indian and
Myanmar officials, Aye and Ansari inked a major
transport agreement that will link a crucially
located Myanmar port with a remote and
underdeveloped part of northeastern India.
The US$130 million project permits India
to develop Myanmar's Sittwe port on the Kaladan
River - a project that could turn into an
important international trade hub - and possible
military logistical base - for the land-locked
northeast.
Prior to this, trade has only
been possible via a longer and circuitous route
through West Bengal by way of an already
overcrowded Siliguri corridor, also known as "the
chicken's neck". The new road and river link
will bypass Bangladesh, which has denied access to
Indian trade via Chittagong port due to domestic
political opposition.
"India, which is one
of the largest importers of pulses will be able to
get them directly from Myanmar instead of via
Singapore," said Minister of Commerce Jairam
Ramesh.
The route will also provide India
an access point to Sittwe, a city located just off
the Kaladan River that is being developed as an
onshore hub for Myanmar's gas once the vast
reserves in the Shwe fields in the Bay of Bengal
are depleted.
India and China are
competing over the massive Shwe natural gas
development project. Ironically, India's state
explorer, Oil and Natural Gas Corp and utility Gas
Authority of India Limited, are partners under the
majority stakeholder, South Korea's Daewoo.
According to a press statement, India has
also signed a tax treaty with Myanmar to check
evasion and to boost trade and investments. The
double taxation avoidance agreement will cover
taxes on individual incomes, company profits,
dividends, interest and capital gains.
It
is apparent that India will not desist from
dealing with Myanmar in all matters despite
Western pressure.
The Foreign Ministry,
though, issued a politically correct statement
that Manmohan "underlined the need for Myanmar to
expedite the process and make it broad-based to
include all sections of society, including
[opposition icon] Aung San Suu Kyi and the various
ethnic groups in Myanmar".
But Ansari
emphasized India's position that international
sanctions will be "counterproductive" to the
economic progress of Myanmar and detrimental to
the interests of the people.
This is a
reiteration of Mukherjee's statements last year
that the United Nations should not impose
sanctions on Myanmar and that New Delhi does not
have any problems dealing with military regimes in
its regional neighborhood.
The Kaladan
agreement is being viewed as the first serious
step in implementing New Delhi's "Look East"
policy, of which Mukherjee is a big proponent.
Aye's visit follows an aggressive
diplomatic initiative launched by India in
Myanmar. This year, India's foreign secretary
visited Myanmar to coincide with the declaration
by the military junta of a constitution referendum
in May and democratic elections in 2010.
For over a decade India has been trying to
engage Myanmar, with which it shares a 1,600
kilometer border, despite international pressure
to isolate Yangon over its human rights record and
the recent crackdown on pro-democracy protesters.
Officials and experts have proffered
various reasons for India's approach. India's
geographical proximity to Myanmar makes it
important to engage with it, and trade and
economics are essential for both parties.
Additionally, Delhi has cited the need for joint
operations to confront separatist elements in
India's northeast which find refuge in Myanmar.
India has also been very uncomfortable
with the prospect of China's involvement in
building ports in Pakistan (Gwadar), Sri Lanka and
Myanmar. Recent reports suggest China's aid to Sri
Lanka for infrastructure projects has crossed $1
billion, more than double the amount being
invested by the traditional partners, India and
Japan.
Such efforts by Beijing open the
possibility of India being enveloped by a Chinese
naval presence from all fronts. However, it is
still quite unlikely that India would have
resisted international pressure to the extent it
has, had it not been for Myanmar's rich natural
gas resources. Myanmar's proven gas reserves stood
at 19 trillion cubic feet (tcf) at the end of
2006, with vast areas yet unexplored.
Over
the past five years, China has made massive
investments in Myanmar to build its case for the
energy sources. Beijing has followed a similar
strategy in Asia, Africa and Latin America to win
energy blocks and has recently struck deals in
Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Angola
- in most cases beating out India as one of the
main contenders.
Much to India's chagrin,
China has even offered to buy gas from Iran should
India opt out of the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas
pipeline. India has been dilly-dallying about the
IPI due to US pressure to forestall the project.
In response to Beijing's efforts, Myanmar
has already inked a memorandum of understanding
with PetroChina to supply 6.5 tcf of gas from
Block A of the Shwe gas fields in the Bay of
Bengal for over 30 years. This was seen as a big
blow to New Delhi's efforts to bring gas from
Myanmar.
It is increasingly apparent that
it will be either China or India that will be
given the rights to oil and gas from Myanmar.
Yangon recently rejected a request to sell gas to
Bangladesh to help the country meet its growing
energy crisis.
Bangladesh's Deputy Energy
Minister M Tamim has been quoted as saying, "They
said they would sell their gas to India and China,
but cannot export gas to Bangladesh at the moment.
Myanmar would consider selling gas to Bangladesh
only after new discoveries are made."
Outbid by Beijing for energy blocks across
the world, an alarmed New Delhi has thus softened
its stand against Myanmar in the past year.
Last September, India's Petroleum Minister
Murli Deora visited Myanmar to sign exploration
agreements, even as massive pro-democracy protests
broke out. Deora had rushed to Myanmar after being
publicly reprimanded by the Prime Minister's
Office for failing to beat out China in Myanmar's
energy stakes.
Recent reports suggest
China is mulling the prospects of building oil and
gas pipelines from Myanmar to its southwestern
province of Yunnan.
Clearly, India has a
formidable task ahead.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based
journalist.
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