Another blow for 'headless'
India-US deal By Sudha
Ramachandran
BANGALORE - The India-United
States nuclear deal has received another jolt with
key interlocutors in its negotiation leaving their
posts. Close on the heels of US Under Secretary of
State for Political Affairs and Washington's
point-person in the nuclear negotiations, Nicholas
Burns, announcing his retirement has come an
announcement from India's ambassador to the US,
Ronen Sen, that he is putting in his papers.
Both Burns and Sen will leave office at
the end of March. Unlike Burns, who is expected to
continue working on the nuclear agreement even
after he quits the State Department, Sen is not
keen to take on any advisory role on the deal.
Sen's tenure as India's ambassador in
Washington saw an
upswing in Delhi's relations
with the US. The high point of this was the
civilian nuclear agreement between the countries,
which was to pave the way for lifting of global
restrictions on nuclear trade with India.
That nuclear agreement is currently in
limbo, having run up against fierce opposition
from India's political parties, especially the
left, which provides the ruling United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) with crucial support in Parliament,
where the deal has to be ratified.
Seemingly endless political wrangling over
the deal by India's politicians last year appeared
to provoke an exasperated Sen to make an
off-the-cuff remark to a journalist that opponents
of the deal back in India were "running around
like headless chickens". The remark ruffled
feathers in India, prompting political parties
across the spectrum to demand Sen's removal as
India's envoy in Washington.
Sen
subsequently apologized and said that the
"headless chicken" remark was not about
parliamentarians but about "friends in the media"
who kept running here and there for comments. It
is a commonly used colloquial expression, he later
contended, saying that he used it often with his
wife when he found her moving about aimlessly in
the house.
Sen managed to get out of the
"headless chicken" soup. But that soup took its
toll on him. He had reportedly wanted to step down
then, but was persuaded by the Prime Minister's
Office to continue as India's envoy in Washington
through the critical final phase in the nuclear
deal negotiations.
Sen's decision to quit
now has been interpreted by some as indicating
that the deal is in a state of terminal decline
and that Sen would have continued to steer the
show in Washington had there been some hope that
the negotiations would be fruitful. Others say his
decision is unrelated to the deal itself as he had
indicated to his team last year that he would not
be keen on an extension in Washington.
Whether or not Sen's decision is related
to the fortunes of the nuclear deal, negotiations
on the latter will miss his inputs. Sen was one of
the key architects of the deal, he conceptualized
the agreement and engaged in the tortuous
negotiations on it. More importantly, he worked
the political establishment in Washington to push
it forward, winning it bipartisan support among US
legislators and marshalling the support of
Indian-Americans.
The impact of Sen's exit
will not be felt immediately as little is
happening on the American front now with regard to
the nuclear deal. India is currently negotiating
an India-specific safeguards agreement with the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Once that's
done, it will have to get clearance from the
45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Indian
diplomats have been talking to NSG members seeking
their support for a change in the guidelines so
that restrictions on nuclear commerce with India
can be lifted.
Only after these two
critical hurdles are crossed will the India-US
agreement return to the US for the final green
light from Congress. By the looks of it, it does
seem it will be a new US Congress that emerges
from the November poll which will decide on the
nuclear agreement with India.
India,
meanwhile, is already looking for a successor to
Sen.
Reports suggest that a tussle is
currently on between the Prime Minister's Office
and the Foreign Office. The latter apparently want
a career diplomat rather than a political
appointee to become India's ambassador in
Washington. The ambassador to the US has generally
been a political appointee, the one exception
being K S Bajpai, who was a serving diplomat when
he was appointed to the US.
The two
leading contenders are Shyam Saran, Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's special envoy on the nuclear deal
and a former foreign secretary, and Satyabrata
Pal, currently India's High Commissioner to
Pakistan.
Saran, who enjoys the backing of
the prime minister, has formidable experience in
handling the delicate negotiations on the nuclear
deal. As foreign secretary he was India's key
negotiator for the deal with the US since the
discussions began in July 2005 and his services
were utilized even after his retirement when the
government decided to appoint him as special envoy
on the nuclear deal. In the past year, he has been
traveling to various capitals to win support for
India in the NSG.
Saran's big handicap is
he does not have the support of the left parties,
which see him as being too pro-American.
Pal, who is being backed by the Foreign
Office, is known to be a quiet professional with
an excellent reputation. Although he is not
familiar with the intricacies of the complex
nuclear deal, he has served in New York as deputy
head of mission.
Other names that have
cropped up are Meera Shankar, India's ambassador
to Germany, and Tarun Das, chief mentor of the
Confederation of Indian Industry. Das has been
credited with energizing India's business ties
with the US over the past decade. External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee is said to be in favor
of sending a heavyweight political appointee to
Washington, even one of his ministers. The name of
Union Minister of State for External Affairs,
Anand Sharma, is making the rounds.
At
this juncture it seems that given Saran's
expertise and his backing from the Prime
Minister's Office, he stands the best chance of
going to Washington. But he has in the past been
cut out of key appointments at the 11th hour.
Saran was the prime minister's choice as
India's candidate for Commonwealth secretary
general until UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi,
arguably India's most powerful politician, came up
with ambassador Kamlesh Sharma's name. Sharma went
on to become India's candidate and won the post.
Saran remained the prime minister's envoy on the
nuclear deal.
If Saran is appointed it
will be a clear indication that India continues to
have a high level of hope in being able to clinch
the nuclear deal. It will signal that it remains
the key component of Delhi's ties with the US.
Many believe he is the best man for the job, given
the importance India has placed on the deal.
But decisions in Delhi, especially
regarding key appointments, have rarely been made
after considering merit. Saran could find himself
out in the cold again.
Sudha
Ramachandran is an independent
journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.
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