Page 2 of 2 US, Britain stung by an Afghan
temper By M K
Bhadrakumar
them, to provide additional
training, to conduct joint operations, should they
[Pakistani military] desire to do so". But
Musharraf's speech at the Royal United Services
Institute in London on Friday vividly brings out
that he can afford to ignore Gates' veiled threat.
In essence, Musharraf knows he may have put a
particularly difficult period behind him.
Timely backing from China has also
strengthened Musharraf's hands. In an
extraordinary commentary titled "No more turmoil
in Pakistan is permissible", China's People's
Daily has come out with a whole-hearted
endorsement of Musharraf's leadership. It
said,
"President Pervez Musharraf has resorted to a host
of viable measures ... Pakistani government has
been making unremitting efforts in defense of the
supreme national interests ... Some opposition
forces at home and a few powers overseas impose
pressures or punitive measures against Pakistan in
the name of 'democracy', 'freedom' and 'opposition
to terrorism'. So the nation is currently in very
complex and stark circumstances and its government
is confronted with unprecedented challenges."
The commentary went on to laud Musharraf's
leadership: "Thanks to the effective leadership of
the Musharraf government along with joint efforts
of people from all walks of life, Pakistan has on
the one hand worked to coordinate with the
struggle of the international community against
terrorism. On the other hand, the nation has
scored remarkable successes in socio-economic
development, and also eased off its strained
relations with its neighbor India."
The
commentary concluded with a warning against any
outside attempt to destabilize the existing
political order in Pakistan. It said, "Major
policy measures taken by the Pakistani government
with the aim of safeguarding internal stability
and social order will surely be understood and
accepted by the people in the nation and
subsequently win their support. Likewise, the
international community should also have a
sober-minded awareness and understanding of these
related useful measures being implemented there as
Pakistan will absolutely not be the sole nation to
suffer provided its stability is not fully
guaranteed."
Musharraf must be greatly
relieved that Beijing has finally broken its
silence and come down unequivocally in support of
him at a crucial juncture in his desperate
resistance of the US game plan to remove him from
power and to disgrace the military by deploying
American troops on Pakistani soil.
Karzai and Musharraf on same side
What outsiders often overlook is that
Afghan-Pakistani relations have different
templates, including some strange templates. The
fact is the Punjabi-dominated Pakistani
establishment has largely accommodated the Pashtun
elite. Thus, the real issue today is Pashtun
alienation in Afghanistan. Conceivably, there can
be a commonality of interests between Karzai and
Musharraf. It is not something being deliberately
fostered by either side - at least, not yet - but
it is there somewhere just beneath the surface. In
the period since his last visit to Islamabad in
November, Karzai has been extremely careful not to
criticize Pakistan.
In his interview with
CNN last week in Davos, Karzai touched on his
expectations from Musharraf. Karzai said, "I had a
very fruitful talk with President Musharraf last
time. From that respect, I hope there is more
recognition of [terrorist] dangers there and of
the dangers of the future of both countries and
the region. Based on that, I hope there will be a
stronger effort in Pakistan and the region, and
help from the rest of the world."
Increasingly, Karzai and Musharraf find
themselves in a somewhat similar predicament. They
cannot do without American support, but they do
not accept US pressure tactics. They know US
regional policies are part of their problem within
their own countries and, therefore, they need to
differentiate themselves for their political
survival. Paradoxically, their attempt is to
perpetuate the US's dependence on them while they
work at consolidating a political base of their
own, which is independent of US control. In
Karzai's case, the 3-4 million votes that
Musharraf can mobilize from the Afghan refugee
population in Pakistan will always remain a
decisive factor in his re-election as president.
Besides, there are regional powers - China
and Iran in particular - which are keenly watching
the geopolitics surrounding Pakistan and
Afghanistan. The Iranian thinking is that there is
a concerted US-Israeli plot to destabilize
Musharraf's regime with the twin objective of the
US establishing a base in Pakistan for its
military intelligence operations directed against
Russia and China and at the same time for
neutralizing Pakistan's nuclear capability.
In the Iranian perception, after some
dangerous brinkmanship in recent weeks, the US and
Israel have somewhat backed off, but a systematic
US attempt continues to undercut the Musharraf
regime. In a recent commentary, the Tehran Times,
which reflects official thinking, warned that
Washington is using its "minions" in the region to
weaken the authority of Musharraf's government and
to create tensions within Pakistan's federal
structure. It called on the Pakistani people to
understand the "gravity of the situation" and to
"confront the hidden hands" destabilizing their
country.
The Iranian commentary has been
much more forthright than the People's Daily, but
essentially, there is a similarity of views. Both
China and Iran are keen on the stability of the
Karzai government. Both would like Karzai to
continue to explore the parameters of a neutral,
independent foreign policy free of US
manipulation. Both visualize that Afghanistan can
serve as a vital land bridge between them, playing
a strategic role in the rapid expansion of
Sino-Iranian relations. To quote the Tehran Times,
the primary reason behind the US mounting pressure
on the Musharraf regime has been for consolidating
its control over Pakistan, which is "situated at a
strategic crossroads in South Asia bordering West
Asia and Central Asia and within proximity of
China's western frontier".
Interestingly,
the People's Daily took a broadly similar line -
in innuendos, though - when it commented, "As is
known to all, Pakistan is a fairly sensitive
nation ... Its unique, specific geopolitical
factor proves [that] if its situation is out of
control and the entire nation [is] in unrest and
turmoil, the scope of negative influences would
outreach its adjacent areas and negatively impact
the global situation ... stability in Pakistan's
surrounding areas is sure to be menaced, and new
variables will add to the war on terror being
waged in Afghanistan and, consequently, the
hard-won situation in South Asia featured with
peace, development and cooperation could possibly
get lost."
M K Bhadrakumar
served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service for over 29 years, with postings including
India's ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and
to Turkey (1998-2001).
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