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2 Pakistan's grip on tribal areas is
slipping By Hassan Abbas
economic situation in the area.
This will be an important test case for Pakistan,
success of which can help the state machinery to
increase its control at least in this area as it
is an important transit point for cross-border
movement into Afghanistan.
Mohmand
Agency Sandwiched between Bajaur and Khyber
agencies, this area was considered to be a
relatively peaceful region. Pro-Pakistan
government tribal leaders still have some control,
which is evident
from
the fact that houses of those giving sanctuary to
some proclaimed offenders were attacked as
recently as last week.
This was in
pursuance of a recent peace deal inked between the
Mohmand Agency political administration and the
Safi tribesmen, in which the Safi tribesmen agreed
to not provide any sanctuary to foreigners. They
also agreed to protect government property and
allow the government to move freely in the area,
ensuring the safety of roads that pass through the
agency. The presence of 200 tribal elders during
the signing of the agreement shows some element of
success on the part of the government, but the
very nature of the deal explains that the
government's writ was failing before.
The
relative peace in the agency in the past few years
owed a lot to the constructive work done by the
Pakistani army in the area in 2003-04 - by
building roads, clinics and schools. One of the
secrets of this success was sealing the agency's
68-kilometer border with Afghanistan by the
Pakistani army in late 2003. Unfortunately,
conditions have changed since then.
In
recent months, Taliban militants occupied two
Khasadar checkpoints in the Qandharo and Halimzai
areas of Mohmand Agency and snatched weapons from
officials manning the post. In early September, 10
soldiers of the Frontier Corps were kidnapped in
the area. The most tragic development, however,
has been the blowing up of a hospital, al-Sehat,
this month. It was built by a non-governmental
organization (NGO)and located about 10 kilometers
from the Mohmand Agency headquarters, Galanai. It
was meant to discourage NGOs operating in the area
as the armed men mercifully forced the hospital
staff to leave the facility before the attack.
North Waziristan Agency As early
as late 2005, Pakistani Taliban leaders had
declared an Islamic state in North Waziristan.
Pakistan opted to cut a peace deal with the power
brokers in the area in September 2006(after
convincing the US administration of its utility),
but the strategy failed. Now, abductions of
government functionaries and soldiers of the
Frontier Corps are a matter of routine. The
Taliban of the area maintain that direct US
attacks amounted to a violation of the peace deal
and hence they are retaliating. Roadside bombs are
now a common occurrence. Even those providing food
to the army units in the area are targeted.
Orakzai Agency Orakzai Agency
was also largely considered a relatively
better-governed area within FATA until 2005, but
Shi'ite-Sunni battles of the adjacent Kurram
Agency spilled over, creating sectarian tension
that consequently attracted the Taliban to this
agency. The quarrel over a shrine that both
communities venerate became a point of contention.
The government was tardy in resolving the
dispute and the political agent of Orakzai Agency
unduly sided with one of the groups, further
complicating the crisis. Even before this issue,
the Taliban patron in Orakzai Agency, Akhunzada
Aslam Farooqui, was known to be a close ally of
Taliban leader Mullah Omar.
Like other
agencies, Taliban activities are expanding into
adjacent districts of NWFP from this agency. In a
recent development in Kohat, which is part of the
NWFP and borders Orakzai Agency, local Taliban
have warned tailors to strictly observe religious
codes while sewing clothes for men and women. In a
letter sent to tailors, the Taliban threatened to
blow up the shops of those not following the
orders.
South Waziristan South
Waziristan is at the center of Taliban and
al-Qaeda activities in the region along with
neighboring North Waziristan. Recently, Mehsud
tribesmen aligned with Taliban forces abducted 205
Pakistani troops(135 army soldiers and 70 Frontier
Corps troops) along with seizing 20 of their
vehicles. The most striking fact, however, is that
the government forces offered no resistance while
being kidnapped.
After more than three
weeks, a majority of the soldiers are still in the
custody of the Taliban, and the government has
been practically forced to engage in negotiations
with them. This reflects government weakness in
the face of their growing strength and influence,
to say the least. Pamphlets being distributed in
the agency, while warning local tribes not to side
with government forces, assert that "like in
Afghanistan, we have established suicide squads
for attacks on troops and their allies in
Pakistan".
Earlier this year, the
Pakistani army partially succeeded in tackling
al-Qaeda through supporting Maulvi Nazir, a
Taliban leader somewhat sympathetic to government
objectives. He started an effective campaign
against Uzbek militants aligned with al-Qaeda in
the area and largely accomplished his goal of
evicting Uzbeks from the agency. However, he is
pursuing his religious agenda unabatedly, and it
is hardly distinguishable from the Taliban's
worldview.
The death of notorious militant
leader Nek Mohammad (now remembered as a hero in
the area) in 2004 has helped the Pakistani army
take some control out of the hands of Taliban
militants, but the vacuum created by his
elimination seems to now be filled, and Taliban
forces have revived their influence and control.
Conclusion A United Nations
report released this month said that 80% of
suicide bombers in Afghanistan had come from the
Waziristan agencies. Yet while the Pakistani
government has offered to introduce reforms in
FATA, little has been done. Political agents
continue to dole out funds to handpicked people,
often in an attempt to buy peace - hardly an
inclusive policy. The US$750 million worth of US
aid for the uplift of FATA is in the pipeline, but
there is no publicly known strategy in place on
how to channel the funds, leading to much
apprehension and conspiracy theories about who
will really benefit in the area.
Furthermore, Pakistan has been rattled by
39 suicide attacks in 2007, so far killing about
350 people, and most of these attacks targeted the
Pakistani army, the Frontier Corps and government
officials in FATA and the NWFP. A series of
attacks in the Rawalpindi region in August was
especially meant to attack the Special Services
Group (an elite commando unit) and the
Inter-Services Intelligence.
This is
unprecedented in Pakistan. Many interpret these
attacks as a consequence of Musharraf's tough
handling of the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) crisis in
July. Clearly, a majority of these attacks relate
to the volatile FATA situation and the Pakistani
army is now on the defensive. The killings of
Abdullah Mehsud and Mullah Dadullah were expected
to hit Taliban forces hard, but the Taliban are
showing uncommon resilience.
Indeed,
Musharraf's capacity to respond militarily is
curtailed because of political compulsions. For
Afghanistan and the United States, this means a
troublesome scenario. Pakistan's return to
democracy may potentially change things for the
better, but Musharraf's move in this direction is
sluggish and uncertain.
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