Page 2 of
2 Military brains plot Pakistan's
downfall By Syed Saleem Shahzad
dates and figs. He also carried
with him messages from Saudi royal family members.
He spent two days in North Waziristan before
returning safely to Islamabad. Immediately after,
the Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, Ali Awad
al-Asiri, went to Saudi Arabia. He was not
carrying good news - the Saudi offer of a
ceasefire with al-Qaeda for both Pakistan and
Saudi Arabia had been rejected, as the al-Qaeda
leadership is determined to pursue its policy of
bringing down "un-Islamic" governments and imposing
their own policies or
alternatively getting Pakistan to change its
policies in favor of the militants.
Pakistan is the first stepping stone in
al-Qaeda's global strategy. Once the organization
and its allies take control of the country or
force the decision-makers to promote global
Islamic resistance, the first direct impact will
be on the Afghan insurgency, where support would
multiply against Western coalition forces there.
Jihadis take aim The September
13 attack on Zarrar Company's Tarbella Ghazi camp
in northwestern Pakistan in which 20 military men
were killed raised alarm bells in Islamabad.
Zarrar Company is involved in anti-terror
operations.
Pakistani jihadis have
launched many attacks on the establishment and
against Musharraf, but now they face a
well-coordinated "guerrilla" strategy, spearheaded
by former army officers.
The former
military men are operating out of the Waziristan
camp of former Pakistani jihadi commander Maulana
Ilyas Kashmiri. They are mostly ex-middle cadre
(captains, majors, colonels) who resigned upon
Pakistan's U-turn after September 11.
Initially, the architect of the struggle
against Pakistan's alliance in the US-led "war on
terror" and the operations in the Waziristans
against the Pakistani military was an ex-captain
of Pakistan's Special Services Group (he served in
Zarrar Company). Captain Ahmed (not his real
name), who also served in Pakistan's peacekeeping
mission in Sierra Leone, was killed a few months
ago in the Garmser district of Helmand province in
Afghanistan fighting against British troops.
The captain had also taught Kashmir
separatists the guerrilla concepts of Sri Lanka's
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. These proved
successful in the Kashmir Valley.
In
Afghanistan, he oriented the fighters to adopt the
three-phase guerrilla tactics of Giap in the
southeastern provinces of Khost, Paktia and
Paktika. These are now being adopted against the
Pakistan Army in the two Waziristans.
The
first phase involves armed opposition to the
Pakistani forces in the two Waziristans. This has
been going on for some years, and has proved
successful, with the troops even being withdrawn
at one point, leaving the militants in peace.
In the second phase, which has now begun,
the militants are targeting isolated security
posts and enemy personnel. This had a spectacular
result recently, with more than 500 Pakistan Army
soldiers being captured in different phases,
mostly from the 7 Baloch Regiment (most of them
were also released in phases).
At the same
time, the insurgency has to spread. This it has
done, into the adjoining Mohmand and Bajaur tribal
agencies, as well as Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and
Swat Valley in North-West Frontier Province. The
intensity of the opposition will be raised to
include large-scale attacks, centered in Swat
Valley, which will be Waziristan's outpost of
insurgency and from where the insurgency is
planned to spread into the federal capital.
The only parallel in Pakistan's history
was the 1970 insurgency in East Pakistan (now
Bangladesh) when a colonel, along with a few other
middle-ranking officers in the Pakistan Army,
formed the Mukti Bahni (separatist group) for the
separation of East Pakistan. Later, Bengali
officers of the East Bengal Rifles mutinied
against Pakistan and joined the separatists.
For the final stage, the ex-army planners
aim to take the battle to Islamabad. The trigger
for this will be presidential elections scheduled
for next month in which Musharraf will run - and
while still wearing his uniform.
Notes 1. Those who
consider non-practicing Muslims as infidels.
2. Ibn Taymiyyah fought against the Tartars
who attacked the Muslim world and almost reached
Damascus. The people of Syria sent him to Egypt to
urge the Mamluke Sultan, the sultan of Egypt and
Syria, to lead his troops to Syria to save it from
the invading Tartars. When he realized that the
Sultan was hesitant to do what he asked of him, he
threatened the Sultan by saying: "If you turn your
back on Syria we will appoint a Sultan over it who
can defend it and enjoy it at the time of peace."
The strategy was successful and the Sultan was
eventually forced to fight against the Tartars.
3. Vo Nguyen Giap (born in 1911)was a
Vietnamese general and statesman. 4. For more
references of al-Qaeda-Pakistan Army connections
see Musharraf's army breaking
ranks, Asia Times Online, August 30,
2003, and Pakistan: FBI rules the
roost, ATol, August 4, 2003.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
