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US elevates Pakistan to regional kingpin By M K Bhadrakumar
Delhi, but the visit was called off at the last minute because of "bad
weather".
However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said in Moscow on
Wednesday, "Taking into consideration the continued escalation of tension in
Afghanistan, we intend to continue to provide assistance to that country,
including in the military field. [This will be done] primarily to help the
Afghan Army to improve its combat preparedness and equipment and ensure its
ability to protect the state's interests on its own." In a recent article,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov critically referred to the United
States' proclivity toward "monopolizing conflict resolution" in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the Russian and Indian foreign ministers reviewed the regional
situation, including Afghanistan, during consultations on the sidelines of
President Vladimir Putin's visit to Delhi on Thursday. The indications are that
Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee will visit Tehran on February
6.
Central Asian countries feel equally nervous about the deteriorating situation
in Afghanistan. A spurt in radical Islamist activities in the Ferghana Valley
in Central Asia is noticeable. China also recently claimed to have come across
extensive links between Uighur militants in Xinjiang and "international
terrorist" organizations. Evidently, the "war on terror" in Afghanistan is
becoming a hot topic in the region all over again.
But will the cozy US-Pakistan condominium that has been at the steering wheel
in the "war on terror" in Afghanistan allow regional powers like Russia (or
Iran and India) to mess around in the Hindu Kush? The exclusivity of that
condominium has been an integral part of the war through the past five years.
The geopolitics of the Afghan war are seldom talked about, but they have
figured throughout at the center of the closely guarded US-Pakistan agenda. For
the same reason, very little is heard nowadays about the idea mooted by French
President Jacques Chirac at NATO's Riga summit in late November regarding the
formation if a "contact group" on Afghanistan comprising countries in the
region that have an interest in Afghanistan's stability. The proposed group
would have made the conduct of the war more transparent and regional powers
would have found such a forum useful.
But Washington has all but smothered the French proposal. Both the US and
Pakistan would be horrified if any such contact group took shape and then
proceeded to demystify the hunt for the elusive Taliban and al-Qaeda in
Afghanistan.
But there are other nuances, too. It appears that the US has broached with
Pakistan the issue of "help and assistance" in respect of its standoff with
Iran. At any rate, the timing of Musharraf's tour of the pro-American Sunni
Arab capitals Riyadh, Cairo and Amman last weekend was important. The hurriedly
arranged tour followed consultations of the US secretaries of state and defense
in Riyadh.
In a rare gesture, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia personally received Musharraf
at the airport at Riyadh. Also, a grateful Saudi king conferred on Musharraf
the "King Abdul Aziz Prize", Saudi Arabia's highest award. For some obscure
reason, Musharraf has become the first-ever Pakistani leader to receive such an
honor.
The emphasis during Musharraf's discussions in the pro-American Sunni Arab
capitals has been on joint "Islamic action" in tackling the crisis in the
Middle East. Curiously, fleshing out Bush's new Iraq strategy, former US
secretary of state Henry Kissinger recently explained at some length from
another angle what such an "Islamic action" could amount to.
Kissinger wrote that Bush's Iraq strategy will require in the downstream "an
international concept involving both Iraq's neighbors and countries further
away that have a significant interest in the outcome". Kissinger underlined
that the US will expect that "other countries must be prepared to share
responsibilities for regional peace ... [since] it is impossible for America to
deal with these trends unilaterally".
Equally, Pakistan and NATO seem to have finalized their agreement establishing
an institutionalized framework of cooperation. NATO and the US have been
pressing Musharraf for early conclusion of such an agreement. But Pakistan has
been dragging its feet. Without doubt, Washington will appreciate that
Musharraf has once again braved potentially vehement domestic opposition to
deliver on a key US demand.
Musharraf is sending Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to NATO headquarters in
Brussels on Tuesday. A NATO spokesman hailed the visit as "vitally important",
and underlined that the visit will "deepen the political relationship between
NATO and Pakistan".
Formal NATO-Pakistan cooperation is bound to impact on the "war on terror" in
Afghanistan. As the NATO spokesman succinctly put it, Pakistan will henceforth
become "part of the solution". The million-dollar question for regional powers
is whether the Taliban also will become "part of the solution".
Conceivably, a significant step was taken by the Afghan Parliament when it
approved on Wednesday the formation of a National Reconciliation Commission.
Speaking in Parliament, the enigmatic veteran Wahhabi leader Abdul Rasul Sayyaf
strongly urged dialogue with the Taliban. Sayyaf couldn't have spoken in a
vacuum. In a checkered political life spanning four decades, he has kept links
with Saudi Arabia, the ISI, the Taliban, the Northern Alliance and Karzai. Who
precisely motivated him on Wednesday, it is not easy to tell.
At the same time, emerging ties with Pakistan will enable NATO to begin to
reduce its dependence on Russian airspace (and Russian goodwill) for ferrying
supplies for troops in Afghanistan. Not only that: at a time when Israel's
formal admission to NATO is under active discussion, NATO will have already
established a foothold on the Persian Gulf region's eastern periphery. Most
important, the configuration works to the great advantage of the US in the
event of an outbreak of military hostilities against Iran, which borders
Pakistan.
The rapid sequencing of these developments is interesting, to say the least. It
is hardly a week since the new chairman of the US Senate Intelligence
Committee, Jay Rockefeller, told the New York Times that the Bush
administration's statements about Iran were uncomfortably reminiscent of the
rhetoric in the run-up to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Being a lawmaker
with access to highly classified intelligence, Rockefeller's views carry
particular weight. So indeed do Negroponte's.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service
for more than 29 years, with postings including ambassador to Uzbekistan
(1995-98) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
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