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    South Asia
     Dec 12, 2006
Page 5 of 5
SPEAKING FREELY

All along the watch tower
By Peter J Middlebrook and Sharon M Miller

smuggling; a situation which must surely be unacceptable to the UN.

8. The role that Pakistan has to play in bringing peace is pivotal. Unless Pakistan is made to feel secure in its relationship with both India and Afghanistan, it is unlikely to build a common Afghan-Pakistan-Indian axis as a powerful new alliance that could



at one moment call into question Pakistan's inalienable right to full national sovereignty.

9. Failure to develop an unbreakable political and military consensus linking Afghanistan, Pakistan and India will only expedite the realignment of states north of Afghanistan toward a political bent that is congenitally Chino-Russian, and one that is destined to strengthen ties with Iran. With US-Anglo interests in Central Asia (including Kazakhstan) already facing displacement, failure to rapidly cement political and military ties between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India could have very profound implications for Western interests in Central and southern Asia for decades to come.

10. While the amnesty program initiated by President Karzai was a significant initiative; even if it had been accepted by the Taliban, it inevitably would have failed to reconcile the grievances of history; not least because the Bonn Agreement deliberately excluded the Taliban from engagement in the forward process.

However, given that the resentment of history continues to fuel future discontent, perhaps nothing less than a full transitional justice program will suffice to finally bring everyone around the table to reach a common conclusion; the war has left deep scars in the minds and hearts of all Afghans and that demands nothing less that an acceptable process of closure. It is recommended that the country undertakes a transitional justice program, similar to South Africa, more substantial than Rwanda, whereby grievances can be aired and the discontents of history and frustration can finally be released.

Notes
[1] Ironically, and against the logic that Pakistani Pashtuns should be part of a Pashtun Afghanistan, there are in fact more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Currently, 28 million Pashtuns live in Pakistan (14.8% of the population) against 12.5 million in Afghanistan (42% of the population). Pashtuns are split across four major tribal groups (Sarbans, Batans, Ghurghusht and Karlans) and are composed on more than 100 local tribes.
[2] The Guardian, November 21, 2006, Page 13.
[3] See http://www2.hq.nato.int/ISAF/mission/mission_operations.htm. [4] See http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/afghanistan/cs-hist-setting.htm.
[5] Shir Ali's son had died, delaying any decision, because the court had been called into morning.
[6] See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Afghan_wars.
[7] North West Frontier Province has never been properly named for political reasons. In the late 1990s, Pashtuns pushed for NWFP to be renamed Pushtunkwa, but this was unacceptable to Pakistan as it possessed an ethnic dimension and in May 2006, President General Pervez Musharraf offered to rename the NWFP Khyber, which was then turned down by the proponents of Pushtunkwa.
[8] The three Anglo-Afghan wars of 1839 to 1919 were fought largely by the British East India Company as both a military and commercial power.
[9] Moreover, with the waning of Pashtun interests in what is now Pakistan as a result of the collapse of the Durrani Empire, and with losses to the Sikhs, Balochis and Persians, the Durand Line was probably seen as a convenient way to demarcate what remains a heavily contested hinterland beyond the effective purview of all de jure states; British, Russian, or Afghan.
[10] A treaty ending a war (as was the case with the Anglo-Afghan wars) may adopt the principle of uti possitetis juris whereby the parties of a particular treaty are to retain possession of (as they possess) that which they forcibly seized during war. In contradiction to uti possitetis juris, the principle of status quo ante bellum (state of things before the war) can also be applicable if deemed so. The fact that Afghan authorities have never taken the case of the Durand Line to the International Court of Justice must signify broad acceptance of the current international border with Pakistan, at least with regard to formal state interests.
[11] With a particular focus on the provinces of Konar, Nangarhar, Paktia, Paktika, Zabol, Kandahar, and Helmand.
[12] The formal inauguration of the province took place five-and-half months later on April 26, 1902 on the occasion of the historical "Darbar" in Shahi Bagh in Peshawar held by Lord Curzon. The province of NWFP then comprised only five districts. They were Peshawar, Hazara, Kohat, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan. The Malakand, which consisted of three princely states of Dir, Swat, Chitral was included in it. NWFP also included the four tribal administered agencies, Khyber, Khurram, North Waziristan and South Waziristan (now seven). The first chief commissioner of NWFP was Harold Deane. A strong administrator, he was followed by Ross-Keppel in 1908, Keppels whose contribution as a political officer was widely known amongst the tribal/frontier people.
[13] ISAF IX, the current ISAF mission, is led by Headquarters Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, commanded by General David Richards.
[14 ] ISAF integrates its efforts with the highest levels of authority at the government of Afghanistan, with the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, with the Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan, the US-led coalition, and with other actors of the international community.
[15] The role of PRTs is to assist the local authorities in the reconstruction and maintenance of security in the area. These are run via five regional commands (RCs), RC Capital located in Kabul, RC North located in Mazar-e-Sharif, RC West located in Herat, RC South located in Kandahar and RC East located in Bagram. These in turn have provincial reconstruction teams that report to them, five in the north (Kunduz, Meymana, Pol-e Khomri, Mazar-e-Sharif and Feyzabad); four in the west (Herat, Farah, Qala-e-Naw and Chaghcharan); four in the south (Kandahar, Lashkar Gah, Tarin kowt and Qalat) and 11 in the East (Bagram, Bamyan, Sharan, Ghazni, Gardez, Asadabad, Jalalabad, Panjshir, Mitharlam, Kowst and Nuristan). There are no PRTs in RC Capital. They are supported by forward support bases - one in Mazar-e-Sharif, one in Herat, one in Kandahar and one in Bagram. [16] See http://www.hq.nato.int?ISAF/mission/mission_role.htm.

Dr Peter J Middlebrook and Sharon M Miller, MA-CPA, are joint managing directors of Middlebrook & Miller LLC, (www.middlebrook-miller.com) an international consultancy and think tank specializing in national security/energy and post conflict reconstruction. Middlebrook, who has a PhD from the University of Durham, UK, served as a World Bank adviser to the government of Afghanistan in the development of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy. Miller was an adviser to the chief economic adviser to the Afghan president and is currently undertaking doctoral research at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter in the UK on US foreign policy towards the Middle East and North Africa with regard to national energy policy.

(Copyright 2006 Middlebrook & Miller. Used by permission. )

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