SPEAKING
FREELY When it pays to be a
rogue By Elizabeth Mills
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
The revelation this
week that Pakistan is building a new nuclear
reactor at an established nuclear-weapons facility
has ruffled international feathers, again raising
the specter of mad mullahs with bombs.
In
some respects, what is more interesting is the
development's timing, coming as India's
much-vaunted nuclear deal with the United States
is wending its way through the US Congress.
The story initially broke in the
Washington Post, which reported
that
a US-based nuclear-non-proliferation outfit, the
International Institute for Science and
International Security, released commercially
available satellite images showing the
construction of a second reactor at Pakistan's
Khushab complex in Punjab. Pakistan has had a
small reactor in operation at the complex since
1998, but the images showed that the construction
of a second, larger reactor was under way.
The US government sought to brush this
off, arguing that it was aware of developments at
the complex, but took the opportunity to urge
Pakistan not to use the reactor for military
purposes. Pakistan reacted ambiguously, with a
Foreign Office spokeswoman responding to the
question of whether this was a new energy reactor
or an expansion of the nuclear program with:
"Pakistan is a nuclear-weapons state; it's a known
fact. It is also a known fact that Khushab is
hosting nuclear facilities."
India made no
comment on the situation.
So why should
the international community be worried? After all,
Pakistan may well have plans to use the plant to
address its mounting energy problems. It does,
after all, have an interest in increasing its
nuclear-energy capacity from the current paltry
425 megawatts to 8,800MW by 2030.
Like
India, Pakistan suffered years of international
nuclear sanctions as a result of both countries'
1998 nuclear tests, hobbling the nuclear-energy
sector's development. Obviously, given the fact
that Khushab is a weapons facility, the key
concern is what Pakistan will use the reactor for,
and here the shadow of Abdul Qadeer Khan casts
itself across the debate.
A Q Khan was the
flamboyant architect of the country's nuclear
program, revered as a national hero. His fall from
grace was swift and painful to many Pakistanis.
In early 2004, Khan appeared on state-run
television at the behest of President General
Pervez Musharraf to admit his guilt in the sale of
nuclear secrets. It emerged that these had been
traded with Iran, Libya and North Korea. Khan
remains under house arrest in the capital,
Islamabad, but was spared any further ignominy
with a pardon from Musharraf and shelter from
international questioning.
This has proved
a bugbear for the international community. The
Pakistani government, having distanced itself from
any sense of complicity in Khan's dealings, has
conducted its own investigation, rejecting
attempts by the likes of the US and inspectors
from the United Nations' International Atomic
Energy Agency to pursue their own line of
questioning. As a result, too many questions about
the network remain unanswered, and it is difficult
to believe that Pakistan would have been let off
so lightly on this issue had it not been such an
important US ally in the "war on terrorism".
So, with this in mind, the notable factor
about this reactor is that it will produce
plutonium. Currently, Pakistan is estimated to
have between 30 and 50 nuclear bombs, all of which
have been constructed from uranium, which makes
them heavier and less easy to manage than their
more sophisticated plutonium-based counterparts.
Given that India has plutonium-based
nuclear weapons, Pakistan is believed to be quite
keen to ditch its old-school uranium models for an
upgrade. But does this mean the new reactor at
Khushab will be used for nuclear-weapons
production? Not necessarily, but for a non-NPT
(Non-Proliferation Treaty) country with a poor
proliferation track record and troubled
relationship with India, it is a possibility.
Returning to the development's timing:
sources in Pakistan reveal that plans to build the
new reactor have been in the offing for at least
two years, but something has now prompted
construction work. Could it possibly be the
existence of the nuclear deal between India and
the United States?
That agreement, made
last July and finalized this March, will -
assuming it passes congressional muster - give
India access to sensitive nuclear materials
reserved only for the use of NPT states, all of
which are committed to using them for their
civilian energy purposes. In return, India has
pledged that materials will only be used for its
civilian nuclear program and has agreed to allow
international inspectors to monitor its civilian
facilities. The deal, which is currently working
its way through the US Congress, is not without
its detractors, some of whom argue that it will
prompt an arms race with Pakistan.
It will
be interesting to see the Khushab revelations
color the final debate when the deal comes before
the US lawmakers for final approval. The United
States needs to alter its own laws before it can
start shipping nuclear materials to India. This
amendment has been supported in two key
committees, with the final vote expected in the
coming weeks.
There can be no doubt that
the India-US deal is making Pakistan uneasy. To be
fair, the US has recognized the problem, but has
previously stated that it will not treat India and
Pakistan on the same terms when it comes to
nuclear relations. Furthermore, it has sought to
pacify Pakistan with a large arms offer, the jewel
in the crown being a nice new set of F-16 fighter
jets.
For many in the Pakistani
establishment, this just isn't enough. They want
an energy deal or possibly some sort of regional
disarmament program. A nuclear-energy deal similar
to that agreed with India was one of the key
issues raised by Pakistan and rejected by the US
during talks between Pakistani leaders and US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last month.
As such, Pakistan has had to revert to
slightly more dubious forms of pressure, and by
maintaining an ambiguous stance, it ensures that
an already jittery global community can read the
worst into Pakistan's decision to build a new
nuclear reactor.
Elizabeth Mills
covers South Asian political and security affairs
for macroeconomic forecaster Global Insight.
(Copyright 2006 Elizabeth Mills.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
