India's elusive date with
Bush By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It is certain President George
W Bush will be in India within the next few
months, most likely before the end of February,
but fixing a date is turning out to be a very
ticklish issue.
The Bush visit will follow
the landmark meeting with Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh, who traveled to Washington in
July. Manmohan's sojourn effectively sealed
Washington's strategic turn toward building India
as an economic partner and a counterpoise to China
in the region. Addressing a joint news conference
with Bush in Washington, Manmohan said, "The US
president has accepted my invitation to visit
India at the earliest."
Bush also promised
an appointment with India during the buildup to
his reelection last year. This was as much to
remove the grouse of the 2 million
Indian-Americans who complained that Bush had not
visited India during his first term.
There
is also the comparison with former president Bill Clinton,
who
has romanced the people, the women, food and
culture of India. He visited once as president in
March 2000 and several times subsequently, for
causes related to AIDS, tsunami relief and
projects funded by Indian-Americans. Clinton is on
his sixth visit this week.
Hillary Clinton
has built on her husband's good work and also
visited India as a senator, also as first lady.
India has laid out the red carpet to her in
anticipation of 2008 when Hillary is likely to
emerge as one of the frontrunners as a Democratic
candidate for president. Manmohan and the
all-powerful Congress Party president Sonia Gandhi
marked out time for Hillary when she visited
earlier this year.
The real countdown to
the Bush visit began in May when the president
interacted informally with Manmohan at a lunch
hosted at the Kremlin by Russian President
Vladimir Putin for world leaders attending World
War II Victory Day celebrations. Bush said the
Manmohan visit to the US later in the year (July)
would lead to "great, great things" in bilateral
ties. According to reports, for the first time
First Lady Laura Bush broached the subject with
Manmohan of visiting Delhi, and Bush jumped at the
idea by suggesting that he would love to be in
India after the Christmas holidays.
According to reports, Bush turned to Laura
and told her that Manmohan headed a good democracy
in a country that had a very large Muslim
population, but no al-Qaeda, and so she should not
have any fears about traveling to India.
This further set the officials in both the
countries working overtime on the dates. Later
this month Manmohan travels to the US for the
United Nations General Assembly meeting. Thus,
officials have been looking at a wide swathe of
winter months from November to February. It is
during this period that most foreign dignitaries
choose to visit India. It provides the right mix
of indoor and outdoor engagements, which Bush will
likely have in plenty, without sweating too much.
However, Bush's suggestion of a post-Christmas
visit limited the options to January-February, but
raised another difficult question.
January
is the month that Republic Day is celebrated in
India. The 26th of the month is marked by a
ceremonial parade with the president of India
taking the salute. It is also an occasion when
India showcases its military might, with the
latest armory on display. With India embarking on
a defense acquisition exercise there will be
plenty to show next year. According to a recent US
Congressional study, in the past four years China
bought more weapons than any other country in the
developing world, with $10.4 billion being spent,
followed by India with $7.9 billion. India,
however, surpassed China in 2004. The past eight
year figures also show that India bought more than
China.
Given the official wrangling over
dates, Indian officials are wary of suggesting
January. To invite Bush in this month could raise
the piquant situation of an overlap with the
Republican Day parade, where a chief guest from a
friendly country is invited. The chief guest
accompanies the president in the cavalcade to the
podium. Usually India has chosen guests who do not
raise any controversy. Thus, the president of
Mauritius, a tiny Indian Ocean island, is a
popular choice. The king of Bhutan has been
invited twice. In 2003, when India celebrated its
50th anniversary of becoming a sovereign republic,
then-Iranian president Mohammad Khatami was
invited, which did not go down too well with
several Western countries, including the US.
Bush as chief guest raises difficult
questions. This, despite the new-found friendship
with the US, is not a very wise thing to do for
the Indian government. Given the colonial and
anti-imperialist hangover in the country, the
leader of the most powerful country overseeing
India's military might on display is not very
politic.
Further, the Congress Party to
which Manmohan belongs has to contend with key
ally, the noisy left parties, on whose support the
government survives. The left parties have been
espousing a virulent anti-US stance. They have
emphasized that India and the US do not share
common perspectives on the issues of political and
economic freedom, fighting terrorism, weapons of
mass destruction (Iraq as a case) and
collaboration in operations (without UN mandate)
in third countries. The left criticism, as in the
case of economic reforms, is rooted more in
ideology rather than the pragmatic approach of
Indian policymakers.
Although a White
House spokesman has declined to confirm Bush's
proposed visit, newspaper reports in India have
plugged the first week of February as the most
likely and safest (from the official point of
view) date that Bush will be in India. White House
Press Secretary Ari Fleischer said last week that
he could not confirm that Bush would visit India
early next year, though many believe that a
simultaneous announcement will be made soon after
the administration comes to terms with the fiasco
over hurricane Katrina.
Another question
being asked is whether Bush will be able to match
the charm of Clinton, whose status in the country
is no less than that of a film star, with
hysterical girls vying for his attention, some
even breaking the strict security cordon to reach
up close. In memory of Clinton's past visits, a
kebab platter is named after him and a table
always reserved in his name at a famous five-star
hotel to commemorate a repast.
No one
really knows how deep the Bush-India connection
is. There has been a suggestion that given his
love for exercise, whether jogging or biking,
arrangements should be made for a morning at the
vast expanse of the Nehru Park in the diplomatic
area. Perhaps a Bush jogging trail could be named.
Though reams have been written about
Clinton's love for Indian tandoori food, the Taj
Mahal and the culture of Rajasthan, there is no
doubt that the real fillip to India-US relations
has come during Bush's tenure, whether in the form
of a nuclear pact, defense deals or business and
process outsourcing. Bush's pro-outsourcing and
pro-business stance goes down well with India Inc.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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