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India turns its back on US
arms
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - The reaction has been quicker
than expected. Peeved at the US decision to supply
F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, India has made it
more than apparent that it is not at all happy and
will play hard to get in all defense negotiations
with the US. Making India's irritation clear,
Delhi has announced new defense orders to Russia,
Germany, Italy, Israel and even Qatar, worth a
total of US$746 million.
Making
no bones about
New Delhi's annoyance, even as US Ambassador to
India David Mulford has tried to placate matters,
Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced
on Tuesday that the government had cleared
the purchase of 12 used Mirage 2000 V fighter
aircraft from Qatar and 11 Dornier 228 aircraft
from Germany for maritime surveillance, virtually
as a gesture set against the US offer to sell PC-3
Orions to India.
India will induct nine
offshore patrol vessels for the Indian navy,
purchase a C-303 submarine-fired torpedo decoy
system from Italy and manufacture eight more in
India. It will upgrade its British Sea Harriers,
fitting these with the latest air-to-air missiles
from Israeli firm Raphael, combat maneuvering
flight recorders and digital cockpit voice
recorders.
Islamabad rejected criticism
from New Delhi on Tuesday. "I am surprised by the
Indian reaction," Pakistani Foreign Minister
Khursheed Kasuri said. "This is not at all in
discord with the emerging thaw in relations with
India."
Last week, the US announced that it
would go ahead with the sale to Pakistan of two dozen
sophisticated F-16 fighter jets that India had
been opposing for a long time. The US go-ahead
comes almost 15 years after sanctions were imposed
on Pakistan due to fears of the nation turning
nuclear, which turned out to be true in 1998.
The turnaround is being seen as a reward
to Pakistan for being an ally in the "war against
terror", including President General Pervez
Musharraf's role in reigning in the Taliban, the
conduct of elections in Afghanistan, as well as
support to the US against Iran. Pakistan has
expressed extreme happiness over the decision,
while India is suitably miffed, although there is
a concomitant US offer to India to develop total
synergies in defense, including joint production,
the offer for more advanced versions of the F-16,
as well as civilian nuclear cooperation with
India. This also fits in with the Bush
administration's intentions to buttress India's
progress as a power to counter China.
US move boomerangs
Prior to the Indian reaction
to order arms
from other countries, the US decision was
also seen as a win-win situation for Washington. For
planners in the administration of US President
George W Bush, it was a clear instance
of geostrategic diplomacy being cloaked to promote
the highly competitive business of arms sales, the
potential of an arms race in South Asia set aside,
as long as it benefited the US arms industry.
There are reports to
suggest that the sale to Pakistan may have saved
5,000 jobs at Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer
of F-16s, located in Texas, Bush's home state.
"If India's requirements are beyond any
existing fighters, we are prepared to make upgraded
F-16s to India's specifications with complete
transfer of technology," Mike Kelly, senior executive
of Lockheed Martin, was quoted as saying after the Bush
administration cleared US companies (including
Boeing) for bidding for contracts with India.
The offer for sales to Pakistan is seen as
aimed to bring about the requisite reaction from
India, which is looking for a massive upgradation
of its aging air force fleet with a very poor
safety record.
Counter to the expectations of the defense
forces, India raised its annual defense spending for
2005-06 by a modest 7.8 %, which analysts say
may not be enough to buy new combat planes and
submarines for the world's fourth-largest military. Nevertheless,
there is enough ground to
believe that India will go in for a massive acquisition
of arms in the near future. India is faced
with the urgent requirement to progressively phase out
its accident-prone and aging Russian MiG
jets. This, combined with the fact that the
indigenous light combat aircraft LCA-Tejas will be
ready for induction only by 2010, makes the
Indian air force keen to acquire 125 multi-role fighters,
with transfer of technology, in a
deal which could be worth $3 billion to $4
billion.
India is negotiating the purchase
of French Mirage 2000-5s, Swedish JAS-39 Gripens
or advanced Russian MiG-29s, in addition to an
ongoing project to induct the high-end Russian
Sukhois.
Enter the US, with the offer to
sell to Pakistan and a concomitant offer to India.
This placed in front of India a huge arsenal from
which to choose for the first time in the history
of its relations with the US - India has
traditionally relied on Russia, and been hampered
by sanctions because of its nuclear weapons
testing.
The real intention of the US was
for India to fall into its arms.
On
Sunday, India said it wanted keep its options
open. India would consider buying military
equipment from the US, Defense Minister Mukherjee
said. "This is the first time we have received an
offer from the US. Naturally, when the offer is
there, it will have to be actively considered by
the government of India, keeping in view the
requirements of our armed forces." But in the
face of criticism from opposition parties for
letting Pakistan get away with its purchase, the
mood seems to have changed.
There is more
bad news for the United States. While the US has placed
all its cards in the open, there are murmurs
of protest in the Indian defense and
foreign ministries against any long-term arms
arrangement with the US. The US is seen as an unreliable
arms partner, unlike the history of such ties with
the Russians, the French or even Israel. The main
fear is of sanctions, which is built into the entire
US system of arms sales, and an arena that is
within the comfort zone of US diplomatic
arm-twisting. The French, for example, stuck with India
even post-1998, when India turned nuclear, despite
sanctions by the rest of the Western world.
A senior Indian Air Force officer has been
quoted as saying, "If they [US] could deny F-16
fighter jets midway through the contract to
Pakistan, we cannot expect anything better. It is
an impossible task for the Pentagon to ensure
legally that the Indian Air Force is assured of
the supply of fighters, spares and support for the
almost 50 years that the new fighter would be in
service."'
As things stand, the likelihood
of a full war between India and Pakistan is
remote, given the progress of the peace process
and the nuclear deterrence that is already in
place. India's conventional military superiority
over Pakistan means that the acquisition of the
F-16s will make an incremental difference to the
balance of power, which in any case becomes
redundant in the face of ballistic missiles
capable of delivering a nuclear payload. It will
require an enormous effort even on the part of
Musharraf, despite the regular verbal tirades
against India, to reverse the dialogue process
that has developed its own momentum. The F-16s
will provide a sense of feel-good to Pakistan and
Musharraf, who can tom-tom his great achievement
in front of extremist elements gunning for him for
kowtowing to the US.
Some observers say
India should look at the fine print of the US
offering. While the US, for strategic reasons,
might want to keep Pakistan happy, it is for
business, including in such delicate areas as
nuclear energy and arms production, that the US
wants to engage India, thus moving away from the
traditional hyphenation of US-India-Pakistan
relations. This is always a much better
proposition and the basis of a long-term
relationship. But, for now, India is upset.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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