Since the end of the Cold War, the United States
has undergone major strategic reassessments of its
capabilities and geopolitical reach around the globe. As
the threat of a single force - the USSR - receded and
then disappeared altogether, new challenges arose. One
such challenge was the relationship with several
countries that have begun to gain clout and importance
on the world's political, military and economic scene.
While Washington's attention has been fixed on the
former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China, a country
somewhat neglected by US policymakers has steadily
gained in importance and has the potential of being one
of the world's major geopolitical players - India.
During the Cold War, India's interests and
aspirations were largely subordinated to the strategies
of its chief ally, the USSR. The checkerboard pattern of
the Cold War alliances placed democratic, though
socialist-oriented, India in the Soviet camp, while the
US supported its rival, Pakistan. India's relationship
with the USSR did not preclude it from pursuing its own
policy toward China, with whom it fought a losing
conflict in the early 1960s, or toward Pakistan itself,
which was defeated twice and finally dismembered by
India in 1971 with the creation of Bangladesh.
Its Cold War alliance gave India access to
much-needed industrial and military technology. While
home to the world's second-largest population after
China, with a billion-plus people, India remained
backward and underdeveloped for decades after its
independence because of the policies and approaches of
its successive governments. While each government has
attempted to enrich the state through various political
and economic means, these developments have been
hampered by the near-monumental task of lifting its
people out of poverty through ways that would be
acceptable to all strata of the population.
After 1991, as the USSR fell apart, India's
policies were no longer strongly tied or connected to
any one country. Since that time, it has aggressively
pursued its own independent agenda. And while Washington
policymakers were keenly aware of the developments on
the Eurasian subcontinent for decades, they "suddenly"
discovered India in the post-1991 world as an energetic
and driven country with the full potential of becoming a
major player in world affairs in the coming decades.
India's future rise to prominence will not be a
result of a Cold War-style alliance, but the culmination
of several factors that will allow it to harness the
full potential of the country. First, its emergence as
one of Eurasia's chief economies will be both a
combination of its economic improvement and the sheer
numbers of its population. Since the late 1980s, India's
economy has started on the slow, but inevitable, path
toward marketization. This ongoing endeavor will take
many more years to complete, as India's economy has been
structured to grant the government a major
decision-making role. This has inevitably given rise to
a plethora of protectionist laws and subsidies, which
now stand in the way of full market-oriented economic
reform. Such a protectionist economy now employs
hundreds of millions of people, and Western-style
reforms and restructuring will affect them in profound
ways. Still, India is slowly proceeding with market
reforms, and these initial efforts are producing
necessary results.
India's well-educated, young
population has embraced state-of-the-art computer and
information technologies, making the country one of the
most important high-tech hubs in the world. Its
information-technology and computer companies in
Bangalore have been named as the world's second Silicon
Valley. These companies and their founders had a major
part in the high-tech and Internet boom in the US in the
late 1990s. While they are earning India its much-needed
currency, this success is mostly limited, as the rest of
the country lags far behind - nearly a third of India's
population still lives below the national poverty line.
In 2003, The Economist did a comparative study
of India and China, and although it concluded that, for
the time being, China's state-sanctioned market policies
are far ahead of India's in terms of internal
development and foreign direct investment, India has the
potential to catch up economically to its large
neighbor. Its middle class, soon to number in the
hundreds of millions, is growing, and its consumer needs
are contributing to domestic economic growth. This might
generate its own set of problems, as the growing
consumer demand will push the country's natural
resources to the limit.
For now, increased
demand for foreign investment and technical expertise
means that the US stands to benefit from this trend,
though certain detriments to this relationship can be
generated. English-speaking India is a destination for
many jobs currently being outsourced by the US, an issue
that might figure prominently during the November
presidential elections in that country. Nonetheless,
while India's full economic recovery is years away, the
conditions already exist for this process to bear fruit
in the near future.
India's second contribution
to its rise as a regional and global power is its
military establishment. Already, India has one of the
world's largest armed forces. Its indigenous military
development is producing the desired results, fielding
everything from tanks and armored vehicles to jet
fighters and advanced naval vessels. The Indian navy
already has the largest presence in the Indian Ocean
after the US, and fields an aircraft carrier, which
allows it to extend operations beyond its immediate
landmass. Having fought several wars against Pakistan,
India's current military is twice as large as its rival.
Both countries' acquisition and testing of
nuclear weapons by 1998 has leveled the playing field in
case of a war and has also focused international
attention on the subcontinent. While both India and
Pakistan are currently developing short- and
medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying
nuclear warheads, the initial scare of the first nuclear
showdown between the two states has passed. There does
not appear to be that great a possibility of both
countries exchanging nuclear strikes on each other's
cities, though major tension remains between the two
over Pakistan's support of militants in
Indian-controlled Kashmir. At present, each country
maintains a somewhat nervous finger on the nuclear
trigger. To dissipate this tension further, India has
recently engaged in public reconciliation moves, with
its former prime minister traveling to Pakistan for a
series of high-profile sports events.
The Indian
air force has recently demonstrated that it can be
counted among the world's top by besting US aircraft in
a series of joint war games. Its air power not only
includes twice as many aircraft as Pakistan's, but also
is qualitatively better than the much bigger Chinese air
force. India has hundreds of modern aircraft in its
inventory, including the state-of-the-art Su-30, MiG-29,
Jaguar and Mirage 2000. It also possesses long-range
bombers that are capable of targeting most of China
almost unchallenged. India maintains this lead by
purchasing high-tech weapons systems from Russia, and
augmenting them with domestically produced avionics
equipment, as well as with equipment procured from other
countries. As India begins to retire hundreds of its
older aircraft, the modern replacements will strengthen
its already powerful and battle-proven reach over the
subcontinent and South Asia in general.
India
has also been very active politically, strengthening its
relationship with Russia through economic and military
cooperation. The purchase of Russian military equipment
is one of the ways India seeks to expand its influence.
It is also active in the Central Asian countries through
high-profile state visits and economic cooperation.
India has a great interest in oil- and natural-gas-rich
Central Asia, and has expressed such interest in several
pipeline projects that would give it access to
much-needed energy reserves.
During the US-led
war against the Taliban in Afghanistan, India maintained
a limited presence in Tajikistan that allowed it to aid
anti-Taliban forces and monitor the situation in the
region. Given the growing Chinese and US influence in
Central Asia, Russia might welcome India to serve as a
counterbalance. India's trade with Russia is on the
rise, and Indian economic presence and influence in
Central Asia is expected to grow in the coming years.
At present, India is far from being one of the
Eurasian superpowers, but all signs point to its coming
emergence as such. The sheer numbers of its growing
population, the expanding middle class, the robust
military establishment and the country's increasing
sophistication in high-technology are shaping India as
one of the rising political, economic and military
powers. This rise is inevitable and has profound
implications for US foreign policy.
Unlike
China, which is now seen by some US policymakers as a
potential rival, the United States will be gaining a
powerful ally in India. India is the world's largest
democracy and although its politics are often driven by
nationalistic demands, in general it aspires to similar
democratic goals and principles as the US. However,
India views US support of Pakistan with guarded
suspicion. On the one hand, Pakistan gained pivotal
importance to the US in the "war on terrorism". On the
other, the Pakistani military supports its own militants
in Kashmir that attack India's security targets. It will
be all the more important for the US to maintain a
careful balance between what it now regards as a short-
to possibly long-term interest - Pakistan's fight
against al-Qaeda - and its possible long-term
objectives, such as India as a rising power with all the
requisite clout.
Furthermore, in the emerging
geopolitical picture, it is India, rather than Russia,
that can check the rising Chinese influence in Eurasia,
and Washington's closer cooperation with this
subcontinental power can help enhance its own influence.
India's proximity to Afghanistan and its own war against
Muslim fundamentalists in Jammu and Kashmir make it a
potentially powerful ally in the global fight against
terrorism.
Most important, India's drive for
greater-power status is driven by intense domestic
sentiment, which has viewed the past five centuries of
foreign domination with growing contempt. It will not
welcome foreign influence that will be viewed as
limiting its own potential. In the near future, to
strengthen its bonds with India, the US will have to
structure its own policies with this country on equal
terms. Finally free from foreign restraints and largely
bound by its own domestic agenda, India stands the
chance of emerging as one of the main players in
Eurasian and global affairs.
Published with
permission of thePower and Interest News Report,
an analysis-based publication that seeks to provide
insight into various conflicts, regions and points of
interest around the globe. All comments should be
directed tocontent@pinr.com.
