KARACHI - A recent report by US think-tank
Strategic Forecasting suggested that since "sovereignty"
had now been transferred to Iraq, the United States
would give its full attention to the problem of al-Qaeda
fugitives in Pakistan's rugged tribal areas. Already
this year, at the instigation of Washington, the
Pakistani army has launched two military offensives into
South Waziristan to track down foreign elements, with
marginal success.
All signs now point to another
offensive, but this time Islamabad and Washington have
agreed that US troops stationed across the border in
Afghanistan will take an active part in the action on
Pakistani soil, rather than wait for suspects to be
flushed out into their waiting arms. Similarly,
Pakistani troops will be able to engage in hot-pursuit
operations into Afghan territory.
In its single
most important strike yet in the tribal areas, the
Pakistani army in mid-June killed former Taliban
commander Nek Mohammed, a key facilitator for al-Qaeda,
the Taliban and the Afghan resistance in the tribal
areas. The United States, however, played a vital role
in this operation by tracking down Nek through his
mobile-telephone calls, and there is even some
suggestion that the US in fact launched the missiles
that killed Nek and a few others in a house near Wana,
the provincial capital of South Waziristan.
Given the complexities of fighting in the
inhospitable tribal territories, where conventional
forces face huge natural obstacles, the involvement of
high-tech US forces is critical.
It is just such
cooperation that is believed to have topped the agenda
when General John Abizaid, head of the US Central
Command, visited Pakistan recently, in addition to
Pakistan sending troops to Iraq.
Shortly after
Abizaid's departure, Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf announced that foreign terrorists had a base
camp in South Waziristan, and that the military would
"use power to smoke them out" in as many operations as
were needed to achieve this goal.
With a little
help from friends, of course.
According to
contacts in Pakistan's strategic circles who spoke to
Asia Times Online, over the past few months the US has
been engaged in espionage operations, including the use
of spy planes, in South and North Waziristan, Chitral,
the Hindu Kush mountain chain, Zhob, and the mountainous
belt between Kandahar in Afghanistan and Pakistani
Balochistan. Tracking devices have also been installed
in a number of places to monitor movements in the border
areas.
US intelligence is concerned that in the
previous Pakistani army incursions into South
Waziristan, their targets were forewarned, and simply
relocated to the mountains of Balochistan. Now a
strategy has been worked out in which operations will
cover the whole 2,240 kilometers of the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Militant
revival After two operations and exhaustive
scouting in South Waziristan, the region's network of
underground bunkers and tunnels has been exposed. As a
result, the estimated 600 foreign fighters who were
holed up there have moved to other regions and
provinces.
One of these areas, Jani Khail, is
full of Taliban and al-Qaeda sympathizers, and Osama bin
Laden is said to have spent some time there after
fleeing from Afghanistan, along with hundreds of Arab
families, in 2002.
The Eidak tribes in North
Waziristan are also known for their commitment to jihad
against foreigners. According to one estimate, 85% of
Eidak youths are engaged either in Wana, Afghanistan or
the Iraqi fronts. Jamia Eidak (Islamic school) is the
catalyst for this movement. Recently, a few attacks have
been made on Pakistani troops in the Eidak area, and
several security personnel have been killed.
Darpakhail was the center of the Afghan
resistance against the Soviets in the 1980s, and has
retained its commitment for the cause of jihad against
the United States. Siraj Haqqani, the son of Jalaluddin
Haqqani, a former Taliban minister and commander who
acts as a go-between for al-Qaeda and the Taliban on
both sides of the border, regularly ferries fresh
jihadis in a fleet of brand-new jeeps to Khost, Paktia
and Paktika in Afghanistan.
After the arrest of
Jalaluddin Haqqani's nephew, Ishaq Haqqani, by Pakistani
authorities, Siraj Haqqani (see Through the eyes of the Taliban, May
5) now orchestrates all jihadi activities. The Manbaul
Ulom seminary in North Waziristan, which the authorities
had shut down, is once again a center of jihadi
activities, and where top Taliban and al-Qaeda
commanders meet.
Already, the Taliban have
stepped up operations in Afghanistan, especially in the
provinces of Urzgan, Kandahar, Khost, Zabul, Paktia and
Paktika, and the scattered movement of the past has
managed to re-establish a chain of command in the hands
of Jalaluddin Haqqani.
Given these developments,
it is only a matter of time before Pakistani and US
forces swing into action.
(Additional reporting
by Muqadar Iqbal in Rawalpindi.)
TOMORROW: Lessons from Waziristan
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Stage set for final
showdown
