Iraq post for Pakistani has India in a
tizzy Siddharth Srivastava
NEW
DELHI - The appointment of Pakistan's ambassador to the
United States, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, as the new United
Nations envoy to Iraq, reportedly at the behest of US
President George W Bush, has sent the Indian Foreign
Office into a tizzy.
Indian
diplomatic mandarins see the sending of Qazi, 62, to Iraq ahead of
the front-runner for the post, former Indian foreign secretary
Salman Haider, as a big move in the United States' endeavor
to enlist the Pakistani army to supply troops to Iraq.
Qazi's appointment comes 11 months after the
death of Sergio Vieira de Mello in Baghdad in a suicide
attack and nine months from the total withdrawal of UN
staff. Qazi will have the task of preparing for the UN's
return to Iraq.
The Indian leadership fears that
once Pakistan falls in line by sending troops, the US
will try to whip Delhi into the same position, given the
past nature of conflict between India and Pakistan, with
the US often tilting the balance one way or another to
suit its interests. There is also the fear that the US,
in its quest to unravel the Iraqi imbroglio, may
actually end up planting fresh seeds of suspicion
between India and Pakistan that could affect the
incipient peace process between the countries.
Speculation after the UN's decision to
appoint Qazi is running high in India as well as in the
Pakistani media, which have pointed out that Haider was
more qualified for the post than Qazi, who is
nevertheless an experienced diplomat. Haider, a Muslim,
is a suave diplomat with an illustrious career in the
Indian foreign service, having served in Iraq, among
other positions. Further, Iraq has traditionally had
much better relations with India, and Iraqis are
familiar with Indian construction engineers in their
midst. The appointment of Qazi has raised suspicion that
the US has reached some form of understanding with
Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf, most likely
in the form of military aid in exchange for the
deployment of troops in Iraq.
Bush, too, gave
plenty of grist to such talk by lavishing praise on
Islamabad for its active role in the "war on terror"
during a speech in Oakridge, Tennessee, on Monday.
India's leading newspaper, The Times of India, reports
that Washington is hoping to get the Pakistani army a
foothold in Iraq through the UN resolution calling for a
special force of about 4,000 soldiers to protect UN
personnel and facilities, with UN officials
acknowledging that Pakistan was among the countries that
had been sounded out for contributions to this force,
along with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Nepal and Ukraine.
Given the recalcitrant position of most
European countries, the US has been trying hard to persuade
India and Pakistan to send troops to Iraq. Last year, the
Bush administration came close to persuading the then
Atal Bihari Vajpayee government to deploy troops, but
fierce opposition from political parties, including the
ruling party's allies, resulted in refusal. Pakistan,
too, has faced similar pressure, with several
indications in the past that Musharraf has reached an
understanding with Bush, but the Pakistani president has
managed to hold back the US with talk that some
conditions need to be met. With the interim government
now in place in Iraq - and endorsed by a UN resolution -
the situation has changed, even if on the surface with
US troops still calling the shots. But given the US
desperation to dilute its presence in Iraq, the
likelihood is that the UN fig leaf will be used to
maximum effect. Reports suggest that several Muslim
countries are more amenable to the troop deployment now.
In such a
scenario, having a Pakistani diplomat as the UN's special envoy
to Iraq makes sense. Once Pakistani troops are in place,
analysts say, the US will use a carrot-and-stick policy to
get the "difficult" Indian Foreign Minister K Natwar
Singh as well as the Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance government to agree to send troops, with
the Qazi appointment the first in more
pro-Pakistan gestures, unless India agrees. It is common knowledge
that nothing irritates India more than the US treating
Pakistan with kid gloves, and the Pakistani establishment likes
it best when it can wrangle concessions from the US that
India perceives as inimical to its interests. These can
include the supply of arms and dollops of aid.
The weapons in the United States' arsenal that could be
used against India include imposition of anti-dumping
duties, pussy-footing on high-technology dual
military-civilian trade with India, and of course going
out of the way to make Islamabad happy. While military
relations form the cornerstone of US-Pakistan
interactions, economic benefits drive India's position
vis-a-vis the US.
It should, however, be
emphasized that Musharraf still faces an uneasy task if
he were to decide to send troops to Iraq. A comment in a
prominent Pakistan newspaper reads: "This is certainly
not a situation in which Islamabad can take a decision
to send its troops to Iraq. The operational requirements
would necessitate liaison between Pakistani and
coalition troops, even if our troops wear the blue
helmets [of the UN]. They would be seen by Iraqi
insurgents as part of the US war effort and would
therefore be targeted. In essence, were Islamabad to
decide to send troops to Iraq, it would be putting
Pakistani soldiers in harm's way. Since this is
completely avoidable, doing so would be utterly
gratuitous. If any deal has been made to this effect, it
must be put to the parliament and discussed threadbare."
In this context, importance is being given to
the visit of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard
Armitage, who arrived in India on Tuesday for a two-day
visit during which he will call on Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh and hold discussions with Natwar Singh,
National Security Adviser J N Dixit and Foreign
Secretary Shashank. Although the immediate reason for
the Armitage visit is to discuss the ongoing
India-Pakistan peace process, officials say India will
be keen to read the United States' mind in the context of the
changed situation in Iraq. Although the short-listing of
Haider for the UN job was not required to be channeled
through the Indian government, there are indications
that India will informally seek to know why the US has
pitched for Qazi. Armitage will proceed to Islamabad
from New Delhi.
The biggest fear, say diplomats,
is that Washington's desperate quest to exit from Iraq
could break the fragile trust that has developed between
India and Pakistan due to the peace process initiated by
Vajpayee and continued by Manmohan Singh. That would be
another tragedy.
Siddharth Srivastava
is a New Delhi-based journalist.
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