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Musharraf a small fish in Putin's
pool
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- Russian President Vladimir Putin endorsed the
Pakistani role in the war on terror as President General
Pervez Musharraf traveled to Russia for a three-day
visit that ends on Thursday, the first visit by a
Pakistani president in some two decades. However, the
modest results of the rare summit meeting between
Russian and Pakistani leaders arguably indicate that
traditional strategic partnerships are yet to commence
shifting.
For instance, on Wednesday Russia and
Pakistan signed three relatively insignificant
agreements on security, cultural and diplomatic
cooperation. The agreement on cooperation between the
two interior ministries is understood to be a typical
deal, identical to Russia's agreements with other
nations. Cultural agreement includes a draft on
bilateral cultural exchanges in 2003-2006. The third
accord established exchanges of trainee diplomats.
Pakistan had hoped to secure other agreements
with Russia, notably on trade and energy exploration. In
July 2002, Pakistan and Russia reportedly inked a
memorandum of understanding in Moscow to allow Russian
natural gas monopoly Gazprom to join a planned project
to build US$3.2 billion gas pipeline from Iran to India.
The agreement also envisaged Russian assistance for
converting Pakistani diesel vehicles to the compressed
natural gas mode. However, in recent months, the deal
has failed to translate into any concrete action.
When meeting with Russian businessmen on
Wednesday, Musharraf asked for help in expanding trade
between Pakistan and Russia, especially in the
privatization process of the Pakistani oil and gas
sector, Musharraf was quoted as saying by RIA. However,
the gas pipeline project was not mentioned during the
visit.
Last year, the total volume of two-way
trade between the two countries reached $83 million, but
heavily in favor of Russia as that country's exports
amounted to $71 million. By comparison, Russia and
India, Moscow's traditional partner and Islamabad's
nuclear arch-rival, traded goods worth more than $1
billion last year. Furthermore, New Delhi has bought
some $30 billion worth of weapons from Moscow since the
1960s and Russian weapons account for nearly 80 percent
of India's arsenal.
Last month, Russian and
Indian officials agreed on a protocol on Indian
purchases of new Russian weapons, cooperation in
building a new fighter aircraft and joint production of
the Brahmos cruise missile. The Brahmos, expected to be
deployed in 2004, based on the Russian Yakhont anti-ship
missile, has a range of 300 kilometers and flies at
twice the speed of sound. A long-awaited deal on the
purchase of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral
Gorshkov is now expected by the end of March.
Not surprisingly, Moscow has been careful to
offer caveats designed not to offend its traditional
strategic partner in South Asia, India. Russia views as
important "to develop constructive interaction with
Pakistan in regional and international affairs," yet
"without damage for our traditional partners", Putin
said in a clear reference to India, according to RIA.
Russia's hopes for the summit meeting with Pakistan were
that it would "create a multi-polar world, which would
be a guarantee of strategic stability", the Kremlin said
in a statement before Musharraf's visit.
Moreover, on Tuesday the Kremlin press service
said that as Musharraf arrived, Putin spoke by telephone
to Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, assuring
him that talks with Pakistan would not produce any shift
in Russia's global priorities. Last November and
December, in yet another gesture towards India, Putin
voiced concern regarding the safety of Pakistan's
nuclear weapons.
Musharraf was expected to seek
Moscow's support for negotiations with India over
Kashmir. Officials in Islamabad have indicated that
Putin could play a role in arranging peace talks.
However, Musharraf secured just a muted backing of his
negotiating efforts. Russia supports work aimed at
"renewing dialogue between Pakistan and India", Putin
stated. "New ways to normalize relations between India
and Pakistan" were discussed during the talks, Putin was
quoted by RIA as saying.
Nonetheless, on
Wednesday, Musharraf thanked Putin for his "meaningful
contribution" in solving issues between their two
countries, made in Almaty, Kazakhstan, last year.
Musharraf referred to the Conference on Interactions and
Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in
Almaty in June last year. At the summit, China, Russia,
India and Pakistan sent their leaders.
However,
last year Putin failed to get Vajpayee and Musharraf
agree to hold direct talks under Russia's aegis on the
sidelines of the CICA summit. Nonetheless, Musharraf's
latest visit came at the initiative of Putin, who
extended the invitation last June.
Another
factor shadowing the meeting between Musharraf and Putin
is China. It is understood that any shift in Pakistan's
ties with Russia will have an impact on relations with
China. On Tuesday, China welcomed Musharraf's visit to
Moscow and hoped that it would further help peace and
development in the region. When asked to comment on the
visit, a spokesperson of the Chinese government said
that Pakistan and Russia are both neighboring and
friendly countries of China.
The Kremlin's Asian
policy is understood to be firmly based on prioritizing
ties with India and China. When Putin traveled to China
and India in early December last year, speculation
resurfaced about the three countries ganging up to form
a "strategic triangle" to help balance the global
dominance of the United States. So far, though, the
three have distanced themselves from the idea of such a
strategic axis.
In the meantime, Islamabad
suddenly came up with a bold idea to join a regional
grouping, dominated by China and Russia. Pakistan
intends to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) and expects Russian backing, Musharraf told RIA
and the ITAR-Tass news agencies on the eve of his trip
to Moscow. Islamabad's interest in joining SCO came as a
surprise, yet Russian leaders refrained from any
clear-cut reaction, and the idea was not mentioned
during the talks at the Kremlin.
Incidentally,
SCO emerged as a by-product of border disputes between
China and its northern neighbors. In 1997, Russia and
China signed a treaty along with the former Soviet
states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on the
reduction of border troops. These nations that now share
the former Soviet-Chinese border became known as the
Shanghai Five. A transformation took place at the fifth
annual summit of the Shanghai Five in China in June,
2001 and the group was transformed to a new
international body, SCO.
The SCO member-states
believe that the world order in the 21st century should
be based on "mechanisms of collective decision-making
and democratization of international relations," says
the SCO declaration, approved in June 2002. It says that
the United Nations should work out a binding legal basis
for anti-terrorist activity that would prevent the use
of anti-terrorist action as a cover-up for interference
in the internal affairs of sovereign states, with
wording implicitly opposing US policies. In a sign of
who's calling the tune in SCO, the declaration also
backs Beijing's position of viewing Taiwan as China's
renegade province.
Last year, Putin indicated
that India was mulling joining SCO, and added that "we
view it positively". Therefore, the Kremlin presumably
found itself in an awkward position to comment on
Islamabad's surprise initiative before getting a clear
response from India (and probably Chinese advice as
well). No big wonder, then, that the Kremlin refrained
from commenting on Pakistan's intention to join SCO.
So although Putin gave Musharraf a warm welcome,
he was keen not to offend India. Therefore, alternative
strategic alliances in Asia are unlikely to become
Russia's official policy any time soon.
(©2003
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