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ANALYSIS
The net closes on
Pakistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf has caused a stir with remarks that his
country could be attacked by Western forces once Iraq
has been dealt with, highlighting once again potential
dire consequences flowing from Islamabad's support of
the US in the war on terror.
Addressing a
meeting of businessmen and industrialists in Lahore at
the weekend, Musharraf said that there was speculation
that Pakistan would become the target of "Western
forces" after the Iraq crisis and that there were
chances of such an eventuality. "We will have to work on
our own to stave off the danger. Nobody will come to our
rescue, not even the Islamic world. We will have to
depend on our muscle," the general said.
The
comments were widely greeted as "extraordinary" in
Pakistan and came as a surprise to most people. "This is
simply a reflection of the situation that Pakistan's
policies in the post September 11 era have drastically
failed," commented former federal minister of law and
the secretary general of the Pakistan Peoples Party,
Mian Raza Rabbani.
Under Musharraf, Pakistan
moved from supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan to
siding with the US in the fight against the Taliban and
its al-Qaeda allies, setting off widespread resentment
and waves of anti-US sentiment in the country.
Musharraf's unexpected comments could, therefore, be
interpreted as a warning to jihadis in the country that
their actions are making it very difficult for the
government. As Musharraf said, "We can talk to the US
... but how can we convince them on our points when the
whole country echoes with the slogans of jihad [against
the US]."
And
significantly, a senior official in one of the country's
premier intelligence agencies maintains that Pakistan
has had to make compromises in its nuclear program. He
said that there were indications that it had been
capped, if not even rolled back, as there had been
tremendous US pressure to shut down key laboratories and
institutes that develop nuclear warheads and material.
And once rolled back, it would take years for Pakistan
to reach the position it is at today.
And this
in turn will create more turmoil in the army, the
official said. "In a nutshell, there is going to be an
unstable situation in the country," he added.
Pakistan's current weak strategic situation
leaves it at the mercy of the United States. Islamabad
literally has no friends in the neighborhood; on the
contrary, it faces hostility, especially from India,
which has huge resources and ambitions of its own to
take on a greater regional role.
The situation
is not helped by New Delhi's latest round of testing
missiles, including the Akash surface-to-air missile,
which was fired on Monday from a mobile launcher in the
eastern state of Orissa. Earlier, India test-launched a
more powerful short-range ballistic missile, the Agni-I,
capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Monday's
test came as Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
once again said that Pakistan had become a center for
terrorist activities. "Although Pakistan is a member of
an international coalition formed to fight against
terrorism ... it is Pakistan where the terrorists are
gathering," he was quoted by the Press Trust of India as
saying. Pakistan had "contacts with terrorists in other
parts of the globe and yet there is no action taken
against them," Vajpayee said.
India's latest
saber-rattling is similar to the situation in the
immediate post-September 11 environment. At that time,
the US made it clear - at the risk even of military
action - that Pakistan give its support to the war on
Afghanistan. India immediately took advantage of the
situation and escalated its troop presence near the
Pakistani border, sending the unequivocal message that
its forces would fight the Pakistan army side-by-side
with US troops.
Under this pressure, Pakistan
had little room but to say yes to the US. Now, once
again, amid Indian adventurous designs, it is safe to
predict that if indeed it is true that the US is
pressuring Musharraf to cap the country's nuclear
program, he will have no option but to obey the US
dictates.
This could have a two-fold effect:
Pakistan will fall behind India's nuclear capabilities
(assuming that at present they more or less counter each
other), and there will be turmoil within the army. This
in turn could see Pakistan settle for the status quo in
Kashmir - that is, Indian and Pakistani-administered
Kashmir will continue to be separated by the Line of
Control, and Islamabad will scale down its support of
the militant struggle for the Indian section to be
incorporated into Pakistan.
The tilting of the
military and strategic scales heavily towards India,
which is in effect what the US is doing by squeezing
Pakistan, could, however, backfire, and work against US
interests in the region as, given a free hand, India
might just be tempted into seriously and vigorously
realizing its own territorial aspirations.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
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