One (little) step forward ...
By Sudha Ramachandran

BANGALORE - On Monday, September 16, the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will embark on what is widely believed to be Sri Lanka’s best chance for peace in two decades. The two sides will begin negotiations on Monday at Sattahip, a naval base in Thailand, toward finding a political solution to the decades-long ethnic conflict in the country.

It is the first time in seven years that the two sides are engaging in direct, official negotiations. Little is known of the actual agenda of the upcoming talks, but what is known is that they are closed-door, will begin on September 16 with an inaugural ceremony and conclude on September 18 with a press conference.

It is likely that the two sides will use the upcoming meeting to unveil to the public some of the decisions that have already been made in talks that have been taking place between the two sides over the past few months. Since the signing of the ceasefire agreement in February, informal talks have been taking place either directly or through the Norwegian mediating team in Colombo, London, Oslo and the Vanni jungles (where the LTTE leadership is holed up).

Analysts will closely scrutinize the opening statements of the two sides, especially that of the Tigers, to assess if they are indeed committed to a negotiated settlement. "The upcoming meeting is really a symbolic one to reassure Sri Lankans and the international community that the peace process is still alive and on track," says a retired Lankan diplomat.

Indeed, speculation has been rife in the past couple of months that the peace process was in deep trouble and it was the repeated deferring of the talks that fueled such fears the most. Talks were expected to start in April-May and it was only late last month that a firm date was announced.

While many will be disappointed that the preliminary round is likely to be symbolic rather than substantial, that it is taking place at all is a heartening and not insignificant achievement.

The road to the talks at Thailand began in December last year when the LTTE announced a unilateral ceasefire that was immediately reciprocated by the government. That informal truce was formalized in an agreement signed by the two sides in February. The big achievement of that agreement is that the ceasefire has held all these months.

The pace of events was rapid in the initial months, with the two sides taking steps to build confidence and generate goodwill, such as the lifting of a seven-year-old economic embargo on Tiger-held territory and the reopening of a highway linking these areas to the rest of the island.

However, May-June public euphoria started evaporating as the process appeared to be losing steam with little apparently happening with regard to the start of the negotiation process.

A major sticking point was the lifting of the ban on the LTTE, a move that is opposed by the President Chandrika Kumaratunga, opposition parties and Sinhala nationalist sections. The Tigers have made it clear from the start of the peace process that the ban on the organization, imposed in 1998 by the government following the attack on the Kandyan Tooth Temple, must be lifted for them to participate as equals in the negotiations and that they would give a firm date once the organization was de-proscribed.

The government, on the other hand, under pressure from the Sinhalese hardliners, was forced to walk a tightrope. It maintained that it would lift the ban once the Tigers committed themselves to a firm date for the talks. This chicken and egg situation has been the main issue that has delayed the start of the talks.

A breakthrough on the matter seems to have been achieved late in July at a meeting in London between Sri Lankan Minister Milinda Moragoda (who is heading the government delegation at the talks) and Anton Balasingham, the LTTE’s chief negotiator. Although no announcement regarding the dates for the formal talks was made then, it appears that the log jam on the issue of the ban and the dates might have been broken at the London meeting.

The subsequent announcement of dates and the lifting of the ban on the LTTE on September 4 removed the last obstacles in the way of the talks starting. But more important than the engagement at the table from September 16-18 is the agenda of the talks in the coming months. The government and the LTTE differ sharply on the issue.

The Tigers want an LTTE-controlled interim administration to be set up in the northern and eastern provinces first, before the core issues, that is, the framework of a settlement, can be addressed. The government is in favor of a composite dialogue, that is, the simultaneous addressing of the core and peripheral issues.

The government has clarified repeatedly that a solution will have to be within a united Sri Lanka. Any attempt by the LTTE to raise the demand for a separate state of Tamil Eelam will certainly lead to a breakdown.

Both sides are coming to the negotiating table carrying flawed records with regard to performance at previous attempts at negotiation. Both have been insincere in their commitment to a political solution to the conflict. If the government has negotiated half-heartedly, preferring a solution on the battlefield to one at the table, the Tigers are guilty of unilaterally taking action to end peace processes at least three times - in 1987, 1990 and 1995.

The two sides are coming to the negotiating table not because they believe a political solution is possible but because neither has been able to impose a military solution on the other.

Neither trusts the other. Nor does either believe that the talks will lead to a lasting solution. That is evident from the way they have been beefing up their respective positions militarily, even as they have been holding fire during the present truce.

And yet, one can expect the government and the Tigers to continue talking for at least a while. It is in their interests to do so. The international mood against terrorism does not favor the Tigers’ returning to the bunkers. The government needs to attract investment back into the country that will happen only if fighting does not break out for some time.

The talks at Thailand will perhaps lead to an interim solution that could, if all goes well, hold the peace in Sri Lanka. It is only the first step towards finding a solution to the conflict.

(©2002 Asia Times Online Co Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)