The Middle East political space has been
dominated by unprecedented and widespread
anti-American mass rallies sparked by a
blasphemous film, but last week it was also the
repository of fresh efforts to address the tragic
conflict in Syria.
While in Damascus, the
new UN envoy on Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, had his
first audience with embattled President Bashar
al-Assad, and in Beirut the visiting Pope Benedict
XVI prayed for peace and condemned foreign import
of arms into Syria as a "sin", the representatives
of a brand new "quartet" consisting of Egypt,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran held their first
meeting in Cairo, thanks to the singular
initiative of Mohammed Morsi.
The Egyptian
president had unveiled his idea of a regional contact
group on Syria at last
month's special meeting of the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation, and reiterated that vision
soon afterwards, at the Tehran summit of the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) (see Egypt
and Iran, the new twin pillars, Asia Times
Online, September 1, 2012).
As expected,
the quartet's Cairo meeting drew the praise of
Brahimi, who wants to revive the UN "six-point"
peace plan drawn by his predecessor, Kofi Annan,
and of Damascus, irrespective of Bashar al-Assad's
misgivings as to whether Turkey and Saudi Arabia
can play "neutral interlocutors" since both those
countries have thrown their weight behind the
Syrian opposition.
Indeed, this is a
legitimate concern on the part of Damascus as well
as of Tehran, particularly since even Cairo
continues to sing the "regime change" tune in just
about every foreign communication by Morsi,
including his recent telephone conference with
French President Francios Hollande, according to a
recent report in Le Monde that indicated Morsi's
conviction, much like that of Turkey's leaders,
that Assad's regime is destined to fall.
Yet, there is little empirical evidence to
back such wishful predictions, which are seemingly
out of touch with the staying power of Assad's
regime regarding both internal and external
factors (for more on this see Does
Gaddafi's fate await Assad?, Asia Times
Online, August 25, 2011). In fact, the very idea
of the quartet initiated by Morsi urging dialogue
and and end to armed hostilities is a concession
to the skepticism that Assad is not about to be
overthrown by the rebels any time soon, and that
the rebels can at best sustain a costly (in human
and physical terms) quagmire.
Simultaneously, the potent radical
Islamists' attacks on US interests - in Libya,
Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and elsewhere in the Middle
East - may have served as a wake-up call to US and
other Western governments that Syria may turn into
another Libya if conflict continues to spiral.
Indeed, the policy ramifications of last
week's turmoil throughout the Middle East, on the
whole serving as a break on the West's omnibus of
support for the armed Syrian opposition, are
unmistakable and benefit the diplomatic and
political option that relies on participation by
regional players.
As a result, a more
explicit Western support for the quartet is called
for. However, this may not be forthcoming as a
result of the on-going Iran nuclear standoff and
the West's refusal to give Iran credit for its
role in regional stability and conflict-mediation.
Yet, intertwined with Western hesitation about
letting Iran take part in the mediation efforts on
Syria are Iran's own concerns about the unintended
consequences if the quartet fails and/or the three
other participants - Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi
Arabia - were to band together around the "regime
change" scenario, leaving Iran as the "odd man
out".
Despite its reservations about
precisely such an unwanted outcome, Tehran has
opted to take part in Cairo's peace initiative
under the conviction that this is bound to bring
Egypt and Iran closer together and at any rate is
a boost for the "new Egypt" that needs to put the
mark of its "diplomatic renaissance" on the map
sooner rather than later.
This may explain
why Iran was not particularly worried about
Morsi's statement at the NAM summit expressing
solidarity with the Syrian people and calling for
regime change in Syria. Convinced that Morsi is
still learning the ropes of his presidency, and
that priority should be given to areas of
agreement rather than disagreement, Tehran's
rulers have opted to push an arch of cooperation
with Egypt on shared positions on regional and
international issues.
In turn, this raises
a serious question in terms of future US-Egypt
relations - called into question by President
Barack Obama last week in the wake of
anti-American protests at the gates of US embassy
and Morsi's belated response. Is the White House
questioning Egypt's role as a "non-NATO ally"
partly because Cairo is getting closer to Tehran
and does not share US's enemy image of the Islamic
Republic of Iran?
Unfortunately, many US
politicians, especially in the Republican Party,
appear to be sold on precisely such a "zero-sum"
conclusion that imposes on Cairo a stark
"either/or" alternative. What these US politicians
and various US pundits tend to overlook is the
potential protean value of select cooperation to
end the conflict in Syria, that can in turn
improve the US-Iran climate and thus bring
potential for a timely breakthrough in deadlocked
relations between Iran and the West.
The
past week's assault on the US consulate in
Benghazi has been a powerful reminder of ''roads
better not taken'' in Syria that, if followed, may
spell disaster for Western interests.
In
conclusion, the big question is whether the US is
now ready to take this to the next logical step
and commence direct dialogue with Iran on Syria
and a host of other Middle East issues? The answer
to this question may have to wait until after the
US presidential elections in November. Yet, as it
pertains to the deadly conflict in Syria,
imperiling the lives and safety of millions of
innocent Syrians caught in the maelstrom of civil
war, a US decision on Iran's conflict-mediation
role in Syria via the quartet cannot and should
not be postponed and must be reached immediately.
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