Iran's Persian Gulf gambit takes
shape Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Responding to the onset of the European
Union's oil embargo with a defiant show of
military strength and renewed threats to close the
Strait of Hormuz, Iran has signaled to the West
that it won't be a passive victim of economic
warfare.
Iranian officials this week made
defiant remarks over a United States build up of
forces in the Persian Gulf after a three-day
missile drill concluded on Wednesday. The
commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps' aerospace division, Brigadier General Amir
Ali Hajizadeh, said that all US bases in the
region are within the reach of Iran's missiles.
The Great Prophet 7 exercise concluded a
day after a "technical meeting" between Iran and
the Iran "5 +1" on Tuesday that, as
expected, failed to
produce any meaningful results.
The US had
dispatched two of its top proliferation experts,
Gary Samore and Robert Einhorn, to the meeting in
Istanbul, likely to indicate its commitment to the
"diplomatic channel". However, few Iranians are
convinced that the US and its Western allies are
serious about reaching a compromise. As was noted
by Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), Ali Asghar Soltanieh, "some
countries are not serious about negotiation".
Even in the US there is a rising chorus of
disapproval over the Western approach toward Iran,
with US commentators criticizing Western
governments for failing to offer Iran any tangible
rewards in exchange for concessions Tehran is
willing to offer on the issue of its enriched
uranium.
The international relations
theorist Kenneth Waltz has also openly defended
Iran's legitimate right to develop a nuclear
arsenal to balance against Israel's destabilizing
nuclear monopoly. (See Why
Iran does not want the bomb, Asia Times
Online, July 4, 2012).
The credibility of
the West's coercive approach to Iran has been
undermined and no amount of US or Israeli
propaganda can hide the fact. It is also growing
harder to obscure that the rigid and inflexible
Western strategy vis-a-vis Iran has put the world
on the brink of a disastrous war, in light of
rising temperatures in Persian Gulf.
The battle over Hormuz Concerned
over pending legislation in the Iranian
Majlis (parliament) calling for a closure
of the Strait of Hormuz - at least to oil tankers
en route to countries that have accepted US
sanctions - the US Navy has beefed up its presence
in Persian Gulf.
The US has doubled its
number of minesweepers in the regional waters to
eight in recent weeks, and several squadrons of
F-22s and F-15s have been relocated to nearby US
base. These forces would be tasked with keeping
the Strait open in the event of an Iranian attempt
to close it or interfere in oil transport.
The legislation on closing the Strait,
prepared by the Majlis's national security and
foreign affairs committee, has already been signed
by 100 deputies (from a total 290 members) and is
on the verge of being sent to the floor for
voting. If passed as expected, this will spur
Iran's military commanders to rely more forcefully
on "hard power" to respond to US sanctions.
A militarization of the Iran nuclear
crisis seems likelier now than ever before,
portending a volatile scenario that will impact on
oil prices and the health of the world economy.
The US and its allies are gambling that
Iran will refrain from disruptive behavior in
Persian Gulf waters simply due to the asymmetry of
any conflict. However, this rests on the erroneous
assumption that Iran will bear the crippling brunt
of sanctions without striking back. This is
exactly what Iraq under Saddam Hussein did for a
decade and half before his country - weakened
considerably by the punitive measures - was
subjected to a brutal, illegal invasion.
A
number of Iranian pundits say the US and its
allies have already declared "economic warfare"
against Iran and therefore should expect stern
reactions. This may come in the form of targeting
Western interests in the region, undermining
Persian Gulf stability, or supporting anti-North
Atlantic Treaty Organization forces in
Afghanistan.
Tehran may decide to target
foreign tankers in a strategy tantamount to
maritime guerrilla warfare, while playing a game
of brinksmanship with the superior US military
power. Other steps would be accelerating Iran's
enrichment program possibly even beyond the limit
of 20% to achieve weapons grade plutonium,
reducing cooperation with the IAEA and even
exiting the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons.
Far from being irrational
and or suicidal, Iran has calculated is that the
US, economically bleeding from military
interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, is
ill-prepared for a war would instantly hit the
American consumers in the pocket in the form of
heightened oil prices, particularly in an election
year.
"Iran's message to [US President
Barack] Obama is very clear: we are not another
Iraq and have learned the right lesson from
America's invasion of Iraq after bleeding it for
years," says a Tehran University political science
professor who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
He adds that most Iranians are "nationalistic" and
will support the government in case of a military
confrontation "with Uncle Sam".
For now,
however, the long list of 20 nations granted
exemptions from the oil embargo, covering some 80%
of Iran's oil market, represent a major barrier to
the war scenario, by giving Iran temporary
assurance that its economic lifeline is not cut
off. These exemptions by the Obama administration
are subject to review in six months - after the
November US presidential elections - with a view
towards containing the Iran crisis. Should the US
determine that most if not all of the present
exemptions need to be overturned, that would be an
invitation for some serious blowback.
Defying the hawkish maneuvers by the US,
Iran's response is tempered by the belief that
there are significant loopholes in the sanctions
that give the countries breathing space. Without
doubt, unless the West makes a U-turn in its
present diplomatic charade the stage will be set
for that eventuality sooner rather than later.
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