Page 1 of
2 Strait
of Hormuz: Danger waters By
Michael T Klare
Welcome to an edgy world
where a single incident at an energy "chokepoint"
could set a region aflame, provoking bloody
encounters, boosting oil prices and putting the
global economy at risk.
With energy demand
on the rise and sources of supply dwindling, we
are, in fact, entering a new epoch - the
Geo-Energy Era - in which disputes over vital
resources will dominate world affairs. In 2012 and
beyond, energy and conflict will be bound ever
more tightly together, lending increasing
importance to the key geographical flashpoints in
our resource-constrained world.
Take the
Strait of Hormuz, already making headlines and
shaking energy markets as 2012 begins. Connecting
the Persian Gulf and
the Indian Ocean, it lacks
imposing geographical features like the Rock of
Gibraltar or the Golden Gate Bridge. In an
energy-conscious world, however, it may possess
greater strategic significance than any passageway
on the planet.
Every day, according to the
US Department of Energy, tankers carrying some 17
million barrels of oil - representing 20% of the
world’s daily supply - pass through this vital
artery.
So last month, when a senior
Iranian official threatened to block the strait in
response to Washington’s tough new economic
sanctions, oil prices instantly soared. While the
US military has vowed to keep the strait open,
doubts about the safety of future oil shipments
and worries about a potentially unending,
nerve-jangling crisis involving Washington,
Tehran, and Tel Aviv have energy experts
predicting high oil prices for months to come,
meaning further woes for a slowing global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz is, however, only one
of several hot spots where energy, politics, and
geography are likely to mix in dangerous ways in
2012 and beyond. Keep your eye as well on the East
and South China Seas, the Caspian Sea basin, and
an energy-rich Arctic that is losing its sea ice.
In all of these places, countries are disputing
control over the production and transportation of
energy, and arguing about national boundaries
and/or rights of passage.
In the years to
come, the location of energy supplies and of
energy supply routes - pipelines, oil ports and
tanker routes - will be pivotal landmarks on the
global strategic map. Key producing areas, like
the Persian Gulf, will remain critically
important, but so will oil chokepoints like the
Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca
(between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea)
and the "sea lines of communication", or SLOCs (as
naval strategists like to call them) connecting
producing areas to overseas markets.
More
and more, the major powers led by the United
States, Russia, and China will restructure their
militaries to fight in such locales.
You
can already see this in the elaborate Defense
Strategic Guidance document, "Sustaining US Global
Leadership", unveiled at the Pentagon on January 5
by President Barack Obama and Secretary of Defense
Leon Panetta. While envisioning a smaller army and
marines, it calls for increased emphasis on air
and naval capabilities, especially those geared to
the protection or control of international energy
and trade networks.
Though it tepidly
reaffirmed historic American ties to Europe and
the Middle East, overwhelming emphasis was placed
on bolstering US power in "the arc extending from
the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian
Ocean and South Asia".
In the new
Geo-Energy Era, the control of energy and of its
transport to market will lie at the heart of
recurring global crises. This year, keep your eyes
on three energy hot spots in particular: the
Strait of Hormuz, the South China Sea and the
Caspian Sea basin.
The Strait of
Hormuz A narrow stretch of water
separating Iran from Oman and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE), the strait is the sole maritime
link between the oil-rich Persian Gulf region and
the rest of the world.
A striking
percentage of the oil produced by Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is carried
by tanker through this passageway on a daily
basis, making it (in the words of the Department
of Energy) "the world's most important oil
chokepoint". Some analysts believe that any
sustained blockage in the strait could trigger a
50% increase in the price of oil and trigger a
full-scale global recession or depression.
American leaders have long viewed the
strait as a strategic fixture in their global
plans that must be defended at any cost. It was an
outlook first voiced by president Jimmy Carter in
January 1980, on the heels of the Soviet invasion
and occupation of Afghanistan which had, he told
congress, "Brought Soviet military forces to
within 300 miles [480 kilometers] of the Indian
Ocean and close to the Strait of Hormuz, a
waterway through which most of the world’s oil
must flow."
The American response, he
insisted, must be unequivocal: any attempt by a
hostile power to block the waterway would
henceforth be viewed as "an assault on the vital
interests of the United States of America" and
"repelled by any means necessary, including
military force".
Much has changed in the
Gulf region since Carter issued his famous decree,
known since as the Carter Doctrine, and
established the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to
guard the strait - but not Washington’s
determination to ensure the unhindered flow of oil
there. Indeed, Obama has made it clear that, even
if CENTCOM ground forces were to leave
Afghanistan, as they have Iraq, there would be no
reduction in the command’s air and naval presence
in the greater Gulf area.
It is
conceivable that the Iranians will put
Washington’s capabilities to the test. On December
27, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad-Reza
Rahimi said, "If [the Americans] impose sanctions
on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil
cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz."
Similar statements have since been made by
other senior officials (and contradicted as well
by yet others). In addition, the Iranians recently
conducted elaborate naval exercises in the Arabian
Sea near the eastern mouth of the strait, and more
such maneuvers are said to be forthcoming. At the
same time, the commanding general of Iran's army
suggested that the USS John C Stennis, an
American aircraft carrier just leaving the Gulf,
should not return. "The Islamic Republic of Iran,"
he added ominously, "will not repeat its warning."
Might the Iranians actually block the
strait? Many analysts believe that the statements
by Rahimi and his colleagues are bluster and bluff
meant to rattle Western leaders, send oil prices
higher and win future concessions if negotiations
ever recommence over their country's nuclear
program.
Economic conditions in Iran are,
however, becoming more desperate, and it is always
possible that the country's hard-pressed hardline
leaders may feel the urge to take some dramatic
action, even if it invites a powerful US
counterstrike. Whatever the case, the Strait of
Hormuz will remain a focus of international
attention in 2012, with global oil prices closely
following the rise and fall of tensions there.
The South China Sea The
South China Sea is a semi-enclosed portion of the
western Pacific bounded by China to the north,
Vietnam to the west, the Philippines to the east,
and the island of Borneo (shared by Brunei,
Indonesia and Malaysia) to the south. The sea also
incorporates two largely uninhabited island
chains, the Paracels and the Spratlys.
Long an important fishing ground, it has
also been a major avenue for commercial shipping
between East Asia and Europe, the Middle East, and
Africa. More recently, it acquired significance as
a potential source of oil and natural gas, large
reserves of which are now believed to lie in
subsea areas surrounding the Paracels and
Spratlys.
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