Israel joins Russian ballet school
By M K Bhadrakumar
The mystery surrounding the death of the deputy head of Russia's military
intelligence agency has somewhat eased. When 52-year-old Major-General Yuri
Ivanov's body was washed up on an eastern Mediterranean beach in the Turkish
province of Hatay in mid-August, bloggers had a field day.
Ivanov was on a sensitive mission to Syria to oversee the Russian military base
in Tartus and was apparently heading for a meeting with the Syrian intelligence
when he went missing. Israel is concerned about Tartus, a technologically
advanced Russian listening post that could spy on its communications and
military movements.
However, any speculation that Israel was involved in Ivanov's death can now be
laid to rest. Or else, the military agreement between
Russia and Israel signed in Moscow on Monday would not have been possible.
A strategic alliance ...
That is only taking a momentary measure of the developing Russian-Israeli
military ties, which promise to be an absorbing aspect of the geopolitics of
the Middle East.
No matter the relatively modest scale of the military relationship so far, it
is high-tech and has a leitmotif distinct from what Russia has with Israel's
two main adversaries in the region - Iran and Syria - insofar as it is
symbiotic and goes beyond commercial considerations that galvanize Moscow's
arms sales.
Israel is a grandmaster in exquisitely carving on small pieces of ivory and has
the genius to transform small steps into long, profound journeys. This was how
the saga of Israel's strategic ties with India, which from its humble origin in
1992 has today come to assume such profundity that neither side can contemplate
doing without it.
Equally, when Russia and Israel, two countries untainted by idealism in their
foreign policies bond, anything is possible. Hardly a month passed, after all,
before Russia commenced the loading of nuclear fuel in the Bushehr nuclear
power plant in Iran, a move that was bitterly criticized by Israel, and they
are already looking ahead.
The Russian-Israeli military relationship is also a keen battle of wits since
it involves two countries that invariably see things through the prism of their
self-interest but are open to trade-offs. The Russian-Israeli pirouette is
already stunning. When Defense Minister Ehud Barak headed for Moscow last
weekend, Israeli media reported that his mission was to lobby the Kremlin to
stop arms sales to Syria.
If Russia's P-800 Yakhont supersonic cruise missile, a highly accurate weapon
with a 300-kilometer range capable of carrying a warhead of 200 kgs reaches
Syrian hands, it will be a force multiplier, enabling Syria to target Israeli
naval ships. The Israeli Ha'aretz newspaper reported recently that Israel was
working to "thwart a Russian arms deal with Syria" and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu had asked his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to stop the sale of
P-800 Yakhnot.
The report provoked the Kremlin to clarify that Russia "honors all the
agreements that were previously signed" with Syria. Kremlin aide Sergei
Prikhodko alleged that the Israeli media were "distorting Russia's position on
the implementation of its obligations to Syria, including in the sphere of
military and technical cooperation".
Evidently, Barak didn't take Prikhodko as the last word. Following the signing
of a five-year military agreement with his Russian counterpart Anatoly
Serdyukov in Moscow on Monday, Barak headed for Putin's summer residence in the
Black Sea resort of Sochi for a meeting where they discussed the range of
security and diplomatic issues.
The agreement, according to the Russian media, "boosts military ties ... to
help them fight common threats, such as terrorism and the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction"; "sketches out" a five-year prospective military
cooperation program that includes "exchange of experience and information in
spheres of mutual interests" relating to issues of international security,
development of military education, medicine, physical training, etc.
Serdyukov said, "Our views on many modern challenges are close or coincide.
First of all, it has to do with terrorism and non-proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction." He seemed to hint at intelligence-sharing over the
activities of militant groups operating in the Middle East and North Caucasus
and Iran's nuclear program.
Barak said Israel "follows closely" the situation in Russia's North Caucasus,
because both Russia and Israel are under the threat of "radical Islamic
terrorism".
...or tactical move?
Whether Russia would want to overtly identify with Israel's war against
"Islamic terrorism" remains to be seen. Russia views the Caucasus security to
be extremely vital to its regional strategies and is loathe to see external
influence upset the current balance in a direction that could lead to
unpredictable consequences. What Russia expects Israel to do is not to mess
around in the Caucasus and, specifically, not to arm Georgia or train the
Georgian soldiers.
A highlight of Monday's agreement is the US$100 million deal for Israel to
provide unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russia - which enables the Russian
security forces to tighten surveillance over Georgia. The Russian military
keenly felt the need to develop advanced reconnaissance systems in the wake of
the brief military conflict with Georgia in August 2008, when the effectiveness
of Russian military operations was severely hampered by the lack of reliable
intelligence.
The Russian military reportedly needs up to 100 UAVs and at least 10 guidance
and control systems to ensure effective battlefield reconnaissance. Russian
defense companies tried to launch UAV development programs but so far have
failed to come up with effective spy drones. Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir
Popovkin said in April that Moscow spent about 5 billion rubles (US$170
million) on the development of indigenous drones, which ultimately failed the
tests.
Israel is now agreeable to setting up a $300 million joint drone production
facility in Russia. No doubt, it is a leap forward to graduate to the
sophisticated level of co-production of weapon systems. Fifty Russian
technicians are presently undergoing training in Israel to operate the drones.
Moscow is expected to spend up to 10 billion euros (US$12.2 billion) on
European and Israeli weaponry in the coming five-year period. Russia is a
large-scale exporter of weapons but also has a need to revamp its arms industry
(and fulfill the needs of its own military's modernization) after years of
underinvestment, for which technology infusion from Israel is useful.
Meanwhile, in an extraordinary gesture usually reserved for strategic partners
like India, Moscow has shown willingness to build laser-distance measuring
stations in Israel linked to Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System
(Glosnass). Putin revealed that the specialists of the two countries are
discussing the project.
This brings up an interesting issue, though. Israel sources its cutting-edge
technology from the United States. In the case of India, Israel became a
conduit for transfer of advanced US technology although Washington had
restrictions on direct technology transfer to India. But in the case of China,
Washington prevented Israel from transferring advanced military technology.
What could be Washington's position vis-a-vis Russia?
Arguably, Israel would oblige Russia provided the latter agrees to work
together within an overall framework of strategic and political cooperation.
An Israeli boost to 'reset'
In the case of India, the Israeli lobby in Washington even helped out in the
accretion of critical mass in US-Indian strategic partnership at defining
moments like the conclusion of the US-India civil nuclear agreement in 2008.
Conceivably, Moscow can expect the Israeli lobby to create positive energy for
the reset of US's ties with Russia.
Indeed, Barak's talks with Putin took an overtly political character. Barak
sought moderation in Russia's military ties with Syria and Iran and to keep up
pressure on Iran's nuclear program. The situation in the Middle East also
figured.
Russia is modernizing the Tartus naval base to accommodate heavy warships by
2013. However, the Israelis would estimate that Moscow's Syrian track is vastly
different today from the Soviet era strategic partnership and is driven
primarily by its burning ambition to become an actor in the Middle East so as
to earn points on the global scale. This is no more a zero-sum game between
Russia and the US, as during the Soviet era.
As regards Iran, though, the paradigm is entirely different. Russia's urge to
have a good relationship with Iran emanates out of profound considerations. To
quote from a recent Chinese commentary:
Iran is also an obstacle to US
expansion in the Middle East. It can be made use of by Russia to bargain with
the US when discussing other important international issues ... Russia is very
clear about Iran's significance to it. Out of its own interests, Russia would
love to take flexible actions concerning Iran's controversial nuclear program
and maintain the bilateral relations instead of leaving Iran alone.
What Russia wants is to please Iran and win hearts and minds of the Iranians,
thus having an upper hand in dealing with Iran's nuclear issue and forcing the
West, especially the US, to make concessions to Russia over other key
international issues.
The Iranian media cautiously reported on
the Russian-Israeli military agreement as "a bid to improve bilateral
relations".
All the same, the Israeli ingenuity to move mountains is a legion. The dynamism
of Russian-Israeli ties could get connected to the template of US-Russia reset.
Moscow is nervous about Obama's ability to push through the reset. Obama means
well but the reset should go beyond detente. The US politics is in flux and
influential quarters in America still view Russia in adversarial terms, while
for Russia the key to modernization lies in the Silicon Valley.
Again, the US-Russia Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty's (START) future is
precarious but the treaty is crucial to maintaining Russia's "strategic
parity". The US Senate foreign relations committee may vote on it in
mid-September and the ensuing debate coincides with the acrimonious
congressional election campaign. The Republicans have posed 700 questions
regarding START.
The influential pro-Israel lobby in Washington can do a great deal indeed by
way of addressing the Russian angst although it may not have 700 ready answers.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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