Hezbollah sees plot behind Hariri tribunal
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Saudi King Abdullah's landmark visit to Syria on Thursday, his
second since assuming the throne in 2005, mirrors Arab diplomacy at its finest
hour.
The king is worried - just like his Syrian host President Bashar al-Assad -
about two critical files in the Arab world: Iraq and Lebanon.
In Iraq, political rivalries have prevented creation of a cabinet for five
months, signaling a political vacuum and security disaster in
the weeks to come that would be very troubling for Syria and Saudi Arabia, two
of Iraq's main neighbors.
The situation in Lebanon is even more dangerous and if allowed to explode could
shake the Middle East beyond repair. Earlier this summer, the deputy Israeli
chief of staff, Gaby Ashkenazi said that an earthquake was in store for Lebanon
later this year, when the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) names Hezbollah
figures in connection with the 2005 murder of former Lebanese prime minister
Rafik Hariri.
Hezbollah, furious with the accusation, cried foul play, claiming that the
entire investigation is flawed because it has relied on false witnesses (who
were never arrested or questioned for their motives) and because it never
considered Israel as a possible suspect in the Hariri affair.
Last week, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah came out accusing the tribunal of
being "an Israeli project" that aimed at targeting the Lebanese resistance.
What Israel failed to achieve through war in 2006, he added, it will try to
attain through the STL.
The international community, with strong Israeli encouragement, tried to break
Hezbollah through United Nations Security Council resolution 1559, in 2004.
That clearly did not work and nor did the war of 2006, which promised - and
failed - to annihilate Hezbollah.
Today, four years down the road, Hezbollah is stronger than ever and, even by
testimony of Israeli military strategists, seems have been left almost
unscratched by the war of 2006. The war rumored to take place this summer is no
guaranteed success for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and it cannot shoulder
another defeat at the hands of the Lebanese guerillas.
It seems only logical that Israel would try to nail the Lebanese group through
the Hariri affair, hoping that this would shatter the current alliance between
Hezbollah and Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the second son of Rafik, along with
creating havoc between Lebanese Sunnis and Shi'ites.
The handwriting has been on the wall for nearly four years now, first surfacing
in a French publication in 2006 then vibrating throughout upper echelons of
power in Beirut. However, it has never been so bluntly debated in public and
the media.
After an article in Le Figaro blamed Hezbollah for the Hariri murder, another
report in a Kuwaiti daily was published in March 2009, followed by a very
controversial report in Der Spiegel in May 2009. Der Spiegel, while refraining
from naming a single source, said that a "special force" from Hezbollah had
"planned and executed the diabolical attack" under orders from a certain Hajj
Samil (no last name), who it described as Hezbollah's second-in-command and
head of a special operational unit.
Le Monde repeated the accusation in February 2010, followed by Ashkenazi last
June. Hezbollah says that it can never take the tribunal seriously so long if
Ashkenazi knew of its verdicts beforehand. This would only confirm what
Nasrallah has been saying all along: that the international investigation is a
vehicle aimed at tarnishing Hezbollah's image and trying to finish what was
started in 2004 and 2006 by resolution 1559 and the 33-day war respectively.
It seems a steady case is being prepared against Hezbollah by its opponents,
both at home and in the international community. It started in November 2009
when a German ship was apprehended by the Israelis, who claimed that it was
carrying Iranian arms to Hezbollah.
Then came the April 2010 affair when Israel said that Hezbollah had received
long-range Scud missiles from Syria. Now comes the STL which will say that
Hezbollah officials were responsible for Hariri's murder.
Hezbollah claims that ultimately Israel is trying to create a situation where
Lebanon erupts into chaos and becomes hostile territory for the group. If it is
accused of killing Hariri, the premier would be forced to distance himself from
Hezbollah, who are crucial pillars of his coalition cabinet. Perhaps - if
Israel gets its way - he would need to revoke a cabinet pledge to "protect and
embrace" the arms of Hezbollah.
Ultimately, many in Hezbollah fear that someone will resume political
assassinations in Lebanon so as to blame them and set the stage for a
thundering declaration of their guilt in the Hariri assassination.
If the predictions turn out to be correct, and such an indictment is released
later in 2010, several options would be on the table. One is for the UN to
place Lebanon under Chapter Seven, which gives the Security Council the right
to take military action to maintain security. The UN could claim that the 23
Hezbollah figures earmarked for accusation are a threat to international peace.
If this happens, Hezbollah will certainly refuse the verdicts and so will the
Lebanese state, perhaps prompting the international community to wage war on
Lebanon. Another option would be for the Lebanese government to try talking
Nasrallah into a trade-off; meaning the figures named would be accused of
acting at their own will and not as members of Hezbollah.
Nasrallah has repeatedly said that such trade-off is absolutely not on the
table, refusing to even discuss the option that his party had been infiltrated
by undisciplined warriors. A third option - and this is where Syrian and Saudi
Arabian diplomacy can come into play - would be for Saad Hariri to come to his
senses and repeat what Nasrallah has said - that the STL is an Israeli project
that needs to be drowned at any cost.
In his capacity as both son of the slain prime minister and the current premier
of Lebanon, Hariri could deprive the STL from any legitimacy.
Both Syria and Saudi Arabia refuse to see Lebanon slip into chaos. The Saudis
have too much at stake in Lebanon, politically, emotionally, financially and
morally, to see their ally crash so abruptly. Saad simply cannot hold on to his
post without full Hezbollah support and in order to maintain it, he needs to
take sides against the STL and put his full weight behind Hezbollah.
If this means turning his back on the STL and anti-Hezbollah allies like the
Lebanese Forces council president, Samir Geagea, then this is a price the
premier would be - should be - willing to pay to keep Lebanon safe and united.
The Syrians made it clear to Saad during his last visit to Damascus that
Hezbollah is a red line that cannot be crossed.
They will never tolerate any international meddling with the arms, reputation,
or future of Hezbollah. According to media reports, the Saudi king and Syrian
president will head to Beirut on Friday to hammer out a solution to the boiling
crisis in Lebanese politics. Only these two Arab heavyweights can talk Saad
Hariri into a u-turn on the STL.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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