Mercurial Maliki on cusp of retaining power
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - After five months of political chaos, with Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki presiding over a caretaker government, it seems that light is now
emerging at the end of the very dim Iraqi tunnel.
Over the weekend, Maliki hammered out a deal with his former friend turned
rival Muqtada al-Sadr, under the watchful eye of the Iranians. Reportedly, the
deal says that the powerful Shi'ite leader will drop his veto over Maliki's
continuation of the premiership, in exchange for turning a new page between
Maliki and the Sadrists.
The prime minister would have to issue an amnesty setting hundreds of members
of Muqtada's Mahdi Army free. Muqtada also wants him to grant the Sadrists
greater representation and
more power within the government, with crucial ministries like the ones they
held in 2006-2008 - Education, Commerce and Health.
Maliki will protect Muqtada from government persecution, allowing his men to
maintain arms in the suburbs of Baghdad, while Muqtada will use his tremendous
influence among young and poor people within the Shi'ite community to further
legitimize and popularize the prime minister.
Iran has reportedly made it clear to all parties concerned in Baghdad,
particularly within the Shi'ite community, that "failure in Iraq is a red line
that cannot be crossed". As far as the Iranians are concerned, there are only
two suitable candidates for the premiership. One is Adel Abdul Mehdi of the
Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), the other Maliki.
Former premier Iyad Allawi, reportedly, is no longer a serious option, having
failed to come up with a cabinet since obtaining 91 seats in parliamentary
elections in March. A consensus needs to be reached among Shi'ite politicians
and needs approval of Muqtada, given that he controls 40 of the 70 seats of the
Iraqi National Alliance (INA).
Although deep down Muqtada is not fond of Mehdi, Maliki or Allawi, if forced to
choose he will likely choose Maliki. Twisting the arm of both Maliki and
Muqtada into accepting a deal reminds us of a 2006 agreement between the men,
which went along identical lines and worked perfectly well until falling apart
because of the prime minister's ties to the George W Bush administration.
Regional heavyweights no doubt contributed to the positive momentum coming out
of Iraq, with Syria having hosted Ammar al-Hakim of the SIIC last June,
followed by Muqtada and Allawi within a 24-hour interval, this weekend, in
Damascus.
According to this weekend's deal, Muqtada will give Maliki the benefit of the
doubt and approve him as prime minister for a grace period of two weeks,
waiting to see if an amnesty and real changes follow at a governmental level.
If Maliki backs out on any of his promises, Muqtada will withdraw support and
bring down Maliki's cabinet. Both men have been instructed, however, not to
fail. The Iranians after all, believe that each period since 2003 carries broad
objectives.
The period 2003-2006, for example, aimed at solidifying Shi'ite power in the
immediate post-Saddam Hussein era while 2006-2008 focused on empowering
non-state Shi'ite players within Iraq through the political process, to
outbalance and eventually overshadow fundamentalist Sunni players like
al-Qaeda.
Now, according to sources in Baghdad, 2010-2012 is an Iranian mission that's
been being broadly coined "Getting the Americans out of Iraq". It focuses on
filling the vacuum that will be left behind by the US departure before this is
done by Saudi Arabia.
To do that, Iran needs to invest in a trustworthy prime minister who has been
tested at the job. That means saying no to Mehdi, who is a newcomer, and
Allawi, who speaks a language very different from what the Iranians like to
hear in Iraq.
Having said that, Iran is implying loud and clear that it has no problem with
empowering Allawi on the Iraqi scene, granting him any post that he desires -
with the exception of the premiership - for now.
It is not opposed to his domestic program at repairing Iraqi society but feels
that the time is not ripe for his assumption of power in Baghdad, regardless of
the fact that he obtained a majority in the March elections.
One idea floating in Iraqi circles at this stage - thought to be the brainchild
of the Americans - is to maintain Maliki as a powerful prime minister with
Jamal Talabani, a Kurd, as a ceremonial president.
Usama al-Najefi, a member of parliament who is close to Allawi, would be given
the post of speaker of parliament, while Allawi would be appointed president of
the Political Council for National Security.
At first glance, this sounds like a ceremonial job for Allawi - making him a
lion in a canary's cage, as some would say. The Americans reportedly believe
that if a deal is hammered out between Iran and Saudi Arabia, they could
empower the Political Council and grant it veto power, similar to that enjoyed
by the Presidential Council and parliament.
It seems unlikely, however, that Iran would ever endorse such an idea unless it
were the only way for Tehran to maintain Maliki as prime minister. Otherwise,
there is nothing in it for Tehran. It is probably because such ideas are
floating within the upper echelons of power in Baghdad that Iran stressed, more
than ever since March, that Maliki and Muqtada needed to settle their
differences, to come out with a suitable coalition cabinet that is accepted by
the INA and Maliki's State of Law Coalition.
Maliki's 89 deputies and Muqtada's 40, however, are not enough for a 163-seat
majority in parliament. It would be absolutely crucial for other parties in the
INA, like the SIIC, to lend a helping hand to give the incumbent premier the
majority he needs.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine.
(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
