BERKELEY, California - Although the United States and its allies insist that
the latest round of United Nations sanctions against Iran targets high-level
government officials rather than the general population, interviews with a
number of analysts, activists and journalists in Tehran reveal a growing
concern over the impact on the country's middle class.
"The government will use oil money to prevent pressure on the lower classes,
but the main pressure will be on the middle class, the majority of whom are
anti-government," a former governmental official told Inter Press Service (IPS)
on the condition of anonymity.
"The sanctions are in fact going to punish the social group who
carried the burden of confronting the government last year. It is the middle
class who engages in trade and sanctions would destroy it [while] the
government's oil money will help it to remain in power," the official said.
The June 9 Security Council resolution, the fourth aimed at getting Iran to
freeze its uranium-enrichment program since 2006, forbids UN members from
transferring most conventional arms sales to Iran, calls for greater scrutiny
of Iran's overseas banking operations, adds more Iranian companies and
individuals to a UN blacklist, and authorizes countries to stop and inspect
Iran-bound ships suspected of carrying cargo connected to Tehran's nuclear
program.
However, the naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC) -
a specific target of new unilateral sanctions by the US - has warned that if
the United States and its allies try to inspect Iranian ships, they would
encounter resistance.
According to IRNA, Admiral Ali Fadavi told reporters in Bandar Abbas on June
24, "We have had indescribable growth in [trade in] the Persian Gulf and Hormuz
Strait. Should they attempt anything stupid, according to their illegitimate
and illegal resolution, we would act in most special and appropriate ways."
Sohrab Razzaghi, an official in former president Mohammad Khatami's cabinet,
told IPS the sanctions could prove to be a "double-edged sword". "If the
government can manage them well, it can mobilize the people, but if it can't
manage them, it could collapse," he said.
"On several macro levels, [such as] aviation, people's daily lives will be
affected, and on a secondary level, it will affect the country's industries and
increase production costs," he added.
Meanwhile, news coverage of the sanctions within Iran is apparently being
suppressed.
"We are not allowed to speak about the sanctions and their destructive effects
because this could be construed as weakening the government," a business
journalist with a conservative publication in Tehran told IPS. "Our
publication's general policy is to say that the government is capable of
skirting the sanctions.
"Criticizing the government is no longer possible, especially since last month
when [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei said that criticizing the government, even
with well-meaning intentions, could cause division," he said. "The pressure on
the press is unimaginable."
Another journalist with Hamshahri newspaper in Tehran, who asked not to be
named, told IPS, "Some say we have paid a high price, so we must continue to
the end, because if we don't acquire the nuclear know-how now, in a few years
we won't have the oil revenue to pay for acquiring it. Others say that the West
won't leave Iran alone until Iran has nuclear bombs."
With low oil prices adding to the economic squeeze, the government recently
tried to raise taxes on businesses, but it was forced to back down this week
when merchants at the main shopping bazaar in Tehran threatened to stage a
general strike.
"Many in the bazaar are furious with news about a tax hike," said Mehran F, a
merchant. "News about the discontinuation of subsidies over the next two months
is a source of anxiety for many people, especially when they talk about
removing subsidies from bread, water, electricity and fuel."
The prohibition on exporting petrol to Iran and the resulting increase in the
price of gas are also a major source of public concern.
"Many believe there won't be an attack [on nuclear sites], because the region
is too unstable," a political blogger in Tehran who asked to remain anonymous
told IPS. "But most people I talked to believe that if foreign pressure mounts,
national unity will increase and this helps the regime and Ahmadinejad, simply
because they have a media monopoly, which helps them to garner public support."
Former Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi recently criticized
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, the IRGC and government officials for their
handling of the country's controversial nuclear program.
In a strongly worded letter published on the website Kalame, Mousavi blamed
Ahmadinejad's cabinet for the sanctions, arguing that they could have been
averted. Referring to Ahmadinejad's characterization of the resolution as "a
used handkerchief", Mousavi said such rhetoric "will not reduce the problems
caused by populist and controversial policies".
He warned that the sanctions would likely erode Iran's gross national product,
worsen unemployment, and increase Tehran's isolation, both with its neighbors
in the Gulf region and internationally.
"Why should only a few people secretly make decisions about issues which affect
the entire nation's destiny?" he said, referring to the nuclear issue.
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