Deadly power vacuum drags on in Iraq
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Iraq's post-election impasse took a tragic twist this week when the
assassination of a lawmaker from ex-prime minister Iyad Allawi's al-Iraqiya
bloc reduced its slim winning majority to just one seat. The shooting came just
days after al-Iraqiya had defeated a recount and the attempted disqualification
of some of its candidates.
When someone gunned down Bashar Hamid al-Lagaidi on Monday in the northern city
of Mosul, al-Iraqiya bloc's share of the 325-seat parliament was brought down
to 90, just one more than the 89 won by incumbent Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition in the March parliamentary elections.
It was no doubt a blow to al-Iraqiya after it last week won a manual recount of
2.5 million votes in Baghdad and saw several
winning candidates reinstated after a government agency disqualified them for
links to the outlawed Ba'athist party. Many analysts believed it was an end to
the 11-week long impasse ushered in by the elections.
Al-Iraqiya spokesman Haidar Al Mulla told Iraqi media on Tuesday that the
assassination had only made the coalition more determined to form the new
government. However, observers now fear that the poor security which enabled
gunmen to so easily target Lagaidi, 33, on his doorstep means that there is
nothing to prevent the same culprits from doing the same again.
At Lagaidi's funeral on Tuesday, many of his friends blamed Maliki for failing
to protect the slain lawmaker, while an official al-Iraqiya statement pinned
the killing on al-Qaeda. Lagaidi did not have official bodyguards because they
were to be allocated when the new parliament was sworn in.
As if Lagaidi's murder was not enough, masked gunmen with rocket-propelled
grenades invaded a jewelry market in Baghdad on Tuesday, killing 15 people
before escaping with a large quality of gold. Government authorities, who have
trumpeted Maliki's "better security for all Iraqis" campaign, blamed the
robbery and murders on al-Qaeda.
When all else fails in Iraq, it seems it is always easy to blame al-Qaeda, but
not all people blame the terrorist group for Lagaidi's death. The National
Council of Resistance of Iran, the political arm of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq
anti-regime terrorist organization, said his murder was orchestrated by Tehran
to stop Allawi's Sunni-backed bloc from taking over from Maliki's
Shi'ite-dominated government.
"This heinous crime is part of the Iranian regime's efforts and meddling in
Iraq aimed at recovering from a disgraceful defeat it had suffered in the Iraqi
parliamentary elections last March and forestalling the formation of a
nationalist and non-sectarian government in Iraq," said the group.
It added that Lagaidi was a staunch opponent of Iran meddling in Iraq and that
he considered Tehran "the main source of problems in that country, including
killings, bombings and election fraud and the main obstacle to the formation of
a government based on the result of the elections".
Despite al-Iraqiya's slender majority, Maliki's coalition has been able to
cement an alliance with another large Shi'ite group, the Iraqi National
Alliance (INA). The alliance holds 159 seats, just four shy of the 163 seats
needed for the overall majority needed to form a government. Kurdish leaders
have also suggested they would join Maliki's government.
Observers say that if he regains power, Maliki will have a hard time convincing
the majority of the population that voted for a change that the security
situation - which has only worsened in the days of the power vacuum caused by
the election - will improve. He would also need to reassure concerned onlookers
such as Saudi Arabia and the United States that he will be independent of
Iranian influence.
In response to the threat posed by the State of Law-INA coalition, Allawi has
repeatedly said that any attempts to marginalize his bloc and deprive him of
his right to become premier - which is backed by President Jalal Talabani and
President of Iraqi Kurdistan Masoud Barzani - would spark civil war and
bloodshed.
Speaking to al-Jazeera on May 25, Allawi said, "I can't anticipate what may
happen if there is a government without al-Iraqiya. But I expect it will be a
very dangerous scenario; more than anticipated."
The election authorities on Tuesday rejected final appeals against the election
results but these now move to the Supreme Court for certification. The deadly
uncertainty created by the power vacuum is expected to drag on for weeks, if
not months.
It is still unclear whether al-Iraqiya will name someone to fill Lagaidi's
vacant seat or whether the government will organize a by-election. If the
latter approach is taken, it's certain that the vote would be strongly
contested by Maliki's party.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine.
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