Iran issue forces Turkey to a crossroads
By Justin Vela
ISTANBUL - Turkey entertained United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in
Istanbul at the weekend and basked in praise for its efforts, along with
Brazil, in securing a nuclear fuel swap deal for Iran.
Ban told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he welcomed Ankara's
diplomatic efforts since it improves the chances for a diplomatic solution to
Iran's standoff with Western nations over its nuclear program.
On Monday, Iran handed a letter to the United Nation's nuclear watchdog, the
International Atomic Energy Agency, in which it
outlined the swap deal in which 1,200 kilograms of its low-enriched uranium
would be handed to Turkey in exchange for nuclear fuel.
Turkey's involvement in the Iran issue comes at a critical time. Tehran faces a
fourth round of UN sanctions as well as sanctions from the United States over
its uranium-enrichment program, which it insists is for peaceful purposes.
Turkey recently hosted a conference on ending the conflict in war-torn Somalia;
Ban was also present at this event. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was also
in the country recently to discuss energy routes and sign US$25 billion in
agreements, including a $20 billion deal for a massive nuclear power plant to
be built on Turkey's southern Mediterranean coast.
These diplomatic efforts have been backed up by the travels of Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, whose visits to countless countries in the past few
years have been a hallmark of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)
government.
Davutoglu describes a "zero problem" foreign policy approach as the country's
driving force. This was outlined in his 2001 book Strategic Depth. The
title alludes to Turkey's distance from global players, its own neighbors, and
the assets of both.
Believing Turkey to be centrally located, Davutoglu advocates the expansion of
the country's influence throughout the region, increasing ties with all willing
countries, and becoming more of an independent power.
The "activist" foreign policy, coupled with Erdogan lashing out at Israel to
cheers from Arab countries and continuing a friendly relationship with Iran,
has prompted debate whether the mildly Islamist AKP is turning its back on the
European Union (EU) and trying to create some kind of neo-Ottoman Islamic
caliphate.
While Davutoglu is known to balk at the term neo-Ottoman, Turkey's expansion of
influence through a policy of engagement and commercial trade is beginning to
have one of the largest effects on the region in recent years. The successes
have been clear.
Turkey has aided talks between the US and insurgents in Iraq, brought together
the prime ministers of Serbia and Bosnia, and mediated talks between Israel and
Syria. The country has seen an expansion of visa-free travel and the number of
flights from Turkey to Asia, Africa and the Middle East has increased.
In March, the country turned down a standby International Monetary Fund loan
because it did not need the emergency funds and imports and exports have grown
from the same period last year.
Though both countries refused to cut defense spending, inroads also have been
made with Greece, Turkey's historic rival.
This type of foreign policy has earned more raised eyebrows then applause,
however, especially as the AKP tries to enact constitutional reforms aimed at
curbing the judiciary and the military ahead of parliamentary elections next
year.
Far less attention is being paid to the fact that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the
founder of the modern Turkish republic, had a motto of "peace at home and peace
in the world". Turkey has long sought to secure good relations with other
countries, especially its friends, who are defined by strategic support and
mutual interests and, also, its neighbors who are potential customers for
Turkey's expanding markets.
This type of foreign policy, one of non-interference and cooperation, is a path
Turkey has long tried to follow. Numerous agreements and non-aggression pacts
have been signed, such as the Balkan Pact with Greece, Romania and Yugoslavia
and the Treaty of Saadabad with Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran, a country that
Turkey has not had problems with for more than 300 years, despite sharing a
499-kilometer border.
The Balkan Pact was meant to protect the participating countries from the rise
of fascism in Europe and the Treaty of Saadabad was meant as a promise of
non-aggression towards participating countries. Turkey knows it is a country at
the crossroads. A policy of open relations is aimed at staving off conflict,
which, along with being draining for Turkey, would also most likely provoke
internal instability from the country's Kurdish or other ethnic factions.
As Davutoglu recently wrote, "There are more Bosnians in Turkey than in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, more Albanians than in Kosovo, more Chechens than in
Chechnya ...".
The agreements also do not come without benefits for Turkey. For example, the
Lausanne Strait Agreement, which settled boundaries contested after World War
I, led to the Turkish republic being recognized as the successor to the Ottoman
Empire.
During the Cold War, Turkey sided with the West against the threat of
communism, something which Ataturk had deemed incapable with modern Turkey. It
also joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1952, serving as
the alliance's eastern flank.
Unhappy with the term neo-Ottoman, Davutoglu has done his best to steer
comparisons of Turkey's modern foreign policy to the "Ostpolitik" of West
Germany in the late 1960s and 1970s.
Ostpolitik, a policy of change through rapprochement, saw communication,
agreements and commercial relations better the relations between West Germany
and East Germany, Russia, and other Soviet satellite states. While the
incremental improvements in relations did not change certain fundamental
demands, such as West Germany's demand for reunification, the two Germany's
eventually recognized each other and were both admitted to the UN.
Similar policies of detente were carried out by the Vatican towards the Soviet
Union and by South Korea towards North Korea from 1998-2008.
Today, Turkey's foreign policy is emblematic of an again powerful country
defining itself in the post-Cold War era. However, though it is expanding its
influence in the region, Turkey does not see itself as turning its back on the
EU. Rather, Turkey sees itself as extending the EU's transformative power while
at the same time finding new markets for its own growing production.
"If you look at the situation 20 years ago when Turkey had tension with Greece,
tension with Bulgaria, tension with Russia, active hostility towards Syria, the
situation has eased," says Andrew Finkel, a British journalist who has worked
in Turkey for 20 years. "Of course one of the main objectives of the foreign
policy is to ease the wheels of commerce."
Turkey may be frustrated with the slowness of its EU accession process, but
half its trade is still with the EU and the number of European businesses in
Turkey are growing. The US has remained Turkey's chief arms supplier for
decades.
One of the most obvious ways Turkey has shown its ability to win hearts and
minds is its famous soap operas, which have become popular with millions of
viewers in the Middle East. "My impression is that these people are hooked not
because Turkey is a moderate Islamic country," says Ayhan Kaya, a professor of
International Relations at Istanbul's Bilgi University.
"People are hooked by the soap operas because they give a rather European
perspective of Turkey to Middle Eastern countries. This is why Turkey is
becoming so magnetic."
The soap operas raise issues such as premarital sex, children born out of
wedlock, spousal abuse, romance and love. These are issues not openly talked
about in the majority of the Arab world, yet Turkey is bringing them out in the
open and forcing them into the discourse of family life.
While Turkey tries to foster good relations and serve as a negotiator, the
limits of its "zero problem" foreign policy are at the same time being tested.
Despite the Iran swap deal, Western countries are pressing ahead with sanctions
for the regime. With more than $10 billion in trade and Turkey's second-biggest
energy supplier, Ankara has long tried to serve as a negotiator in the conflict
between Iran and the West, despite being accused of stalling sanctions.
However, when faced with having to make a final decision on how to vote, Turkey
is expected to side with its NATO allies in the West and vote for sanctions,
creating another fissure in the region.
Turkey also made strides with its nemesis Armenia this past year, only to see
the efforts collapse in March. The failure to open the border with Armenia and
move towards some type of rapprochement was likely linked with Azerbaijan's
dissatisfaction with the lack of resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
and Russian pressure, according to Stratfor, an intelligence company.
Turkey has been impeded by Russia in the past. After the end of the Cold War,
Turkey tried opening up to Central Asia, feeling it had a mission and ethnic
affinity there. However, it found itself in territory where Russia also
believed it had a natural right to influence and retreated from the region.
"If you raise your profile you are going to attract competitors. People will
try to undermine you," says Finkel. Now Russia and Turkey are becoming closer.
The agreements the two countries signed recently perhaps not only acknowledge
Turkey's growing regional power, but also highlight how unacceptable Russia
finds Turkey hosting the Western backed Nabucco natural gas pipeline.
Currently, it appears that Nabucco, despite years of doubt, will be built,
undermining Europe's reliance on Russian energy. At the same time, Turkey is
also set to host Russia's South Stream pipeline, which is supposed to transport
energy to Europe and is preparing to enter into several different energy
ventures with its northern neighbor. It is unsure if Turkey will be able to
host the two competing pipelines or will bow to Russia pressure and shelve
Nabucco. The question persists: Does Turkey truly need the West?
Justin Vela is a freelance journalist currently based in Helsinki,
Finland.
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