DAMASCUS - It is now certain that the final results from Iraq's March 7
parliamentary elections will not be out before the end of March. What we do
know for sure is that voter turnout was impressively high, at 62%, and that the
State of Law Coalition, headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, has the lead
across southern Iraq, within the capital Baghdad and in the oil-rich province
of Basra, effectively winning seven provinces out of a total of 18.
Ex-prime minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite and former Ba'athist, is also
winning the vote in the predominately Sunni al-Anbar province and the
controversial city of Kirkuk, which is inhabited by Arabs and Kurds. Both
leaders are bracing themselves for the premiership - Maliki for a continuation,
Allawi for a thundering comeback.
Abbas Bayati, a member of parliament close to Maliki, was
quoted over the weekend saying, "The prime minister's strong showing in the
election proves that he deserves to keep his job." There is a long way to go,
though, and much will depend on who takes Baghdad, where more than a fifth of
the 325 parliamentary seats are concentrated.
The big news is that the Iran-backed Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which swept
the 2005 parliament, has certainly lost its hold and will not return to power
in 2010. Even in religious centers like Najaf and Babil the INA did not win a
clear majority, lagging strongly behind the State of Law Coalition. Maliki's
team has seemingly taken 42% of votes in Babil and 47% of votes in Najaf - a
steady rise from the provincial elections of 2009, in which Maliki's list
received only 16% in Najaf and 12.5% in Babil. Another sticking point is
Kirkuk, which Allawi's list claims to have swept - contradicting claims made by
heavyweight Kurdish parties which argue that they have won no fewer than six of
12 seats in Kirkuk.
The oil-rich area has been a subject of hot debate since 2003, with Kurds
demanding its incorporation into Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Arabs - and neighbors
like Turkey - vow that Kirkuk will never become Kurdish. Kurds claim that
Saddam Hussein, during his systematic campaign against them, uprooted thousands
of Kurdish families from Kirkuk to illegally change its demographics and make
it an Arab province. Allawi is not a fan of Kurdish ambitions in Kirkuk and if
he returns to power not only will it mean that Kirkuk members of parliament
will not be Kurdish, the chances of a referendum on Kirkuk's future ever being
held will be slim.
So far, neighboring capitals have been silent over the preliminary results.
Riyadh, Damascus and Tehran, however, are anxiously watching to see who will
become the new master of Baghdad. The Syrians and Saudis, many believe, want
Allawi back, dismayed with Maliki for his handling of Sunni demands and
relations with Damascus.
They believe the prime minister failed to bring about reconciliation or
stability, in fact cornering Sunnis into a helpless position in which, out of
government and power, they had little say in decision-making in Baghdad. Iran
wants Maliki back if it cannot secure the victory of one of its heavyweight
proxies in the INA.
Tehran certainly would not welcome Allawi back, given his strong secular
tendencies, Ba'athist history and strong relations with Saudi Arabia. Apart
from religious, political and strategic ties to Iraqi Shi'ites, Iran cannot
afford to lose its influence in Baghdad. It fought hard for this influence
during the 1980s, sending thousands of young men to die on the battleground
against Saddam's soldiers.
Since Saddam's downfall in 2003, Tehran has persistently tried to get its
allies into power - men like ex-prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the Hakim
clan that leads the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), both major components
of the INA. In 2008, Iran offered a loan of US$1 billion for projects in Iraq
($20 million of which went to Najaf) and in 2009 it awarded a $1.5 billion
contract for the proposed construction of a complex of houses, schools, hotels
and shops in Basra - which ironically has now voted for Maliki rather than the
INA.
Having said that, opponents of Iran should not get their hopes up too high and
speculate on an Iranian defeat in Iraq. Although the INA will probably fail at
taking over parliament this year, it continues to be the strongest force in the
Shi'ite community, thanks to the heavyweight influence of men like Ammar
al-Hakim of the SIIC and cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Maliki is not a Shi'ite
heavyweight in the same mold and comes across as a pan-Iraqi leader with a
combination of Sunni and Shi'ite support.
That is no surprise since soon after becoming prime minister in 2006 Maliki
decided that he wanted to market himself as an Iraqi leader, and not just a
Shi'ite one, explaining why he refused to join the Iran-backed INA this year.
Although these same politicians had brought him to power in 2006 and bolstered
his regime from 2006 to 2009, Maliki realized that he couldn't earn acceptance
or the respect of the Arab neighborhood if he remained the Maliki of the 1990s,
that is, the head of an Islamic political party that dreamed of an Iran-style
theocracy in Baghdad.
Maliki stressed that he was a spokesman for all of Iraq, and not just Shi'ites.
Originally, this put him in a difficult position, since Shi'ites, dismayed at
the change, refused to accept him and Sunnis, angry at his anti-Sunni past,
also refused to give him the benefit of the doubt.
For all practical purposes Maliki was seen as politically finished when three
massive terrorist attacks struck the capital in August, October and December
2009. Iranian, Saudi and Syrian anger with the prime minister was almost
certain testimony that his days as premier were numbered. But over the past six
months Maliki has managed to bounce back, dishing out political rewards left
and right and banking on the huge state apparatus under his control and under
that of his ministers, all of them members of the State of Law Coalition.
The Iraq that will emerge once the dust has finally settled will be one divided
between moderate Shi'ites (in appearance if not at heart) and seculars like
Allawi, who head a joint team with Sunnis. The era of radical political groups,
like the SIIC for Shi'ites and the Iraqi Accordance Front for Sunnis, is
clearly over.
And so is the heyday of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which not only failed at foiling the
elections but which will most likely have to deal with two arch enemies who are
likely to create a cabinet of national unity - Allawi and Maliki. Neither will
come out with a clear majority, judging by the preliminary results, meaning
that the two will get the lion's share of seats in parliament, and have to rely
on one another to form a cabinet.
It is likely that Allawi will propose any person other than Maliki if he cannot
secure the position for himself; Allawi will not tolerate Maliki again as prime
minister. This would leave the path open for a third name - probably an
independent - to rule under the watchful eye - and command - of Maliki and
Allawi.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward magazine in Syria.
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