Atrocities may fill Iraqi power vacuum
By Ali Kareem and Hemin H Lihony
BAGHDAD and SULAIMANIYAH - The post-election political deadlock following
Iraq's parliamentary elections on Sunday could lead to security problems and
deepen sectarian rifts, politicians and analysts say.
The Iraqi constitution states that a new government should be formed within a
month of election results being certified. But the usual delays caused by party
horse-trading over the creation of a ruling coalition will be exacerbated by
protracted deal-making over the appointment of a president who, unlike in the
past, will have substantial power.
Some politicians and analysts worry that the power vacuum could
be exploited by extremists.
"Al-Qaeda looks for any opening to commit attacks," Adil Barwari, a member of
the security and defense parliamentary committee, said. "The post-election
period is a perfect time for them. There will be a political vacuum, but
hopefully not a security one, because the government and especially security
ministries are tasked with handling security until the formation of the new
government."
The United States has pushed for a new government to be formed as soon as
possible, and its military officials warned this week that attacks could
escalate if political horse-trading stalled progress. US commanders have also
hinted in recent weeks that combat forces might remain in Iraq past the August
2010 withdrawal date if the elections are followed by bloodshed, as in 2005.
"If al-Qaeda commits attacks this time, then it is up to the next government to
decide whether it is necessary to ask American troops to stay and delay the
withdrawal plan or not," Barwari said. "It also depends on the next political
blocs in the parliament and their strategies and views. This is not just a
security decision, it is also a political one."
Because no one party is expected to win the 163 seats in Iraq's 325-seat
parliament needed to form a government, complex deal-making and
coalition-building will precede the selection of a prime minister and approval
of a cabinet.
"I am sure forming the new government will take months," Azad Chalak, a member
of the Iraqi parliament's integrity committee, said. "The reason is the
mistrust between Iraqi politicians. It will be very difficult for the new
government to get a vote of confidence in the next Iraqi parliament.
"Even a Shi'ite-led government cannot get through parliament easily. Before
they were united, but now they have different, separate lists, and it's the
same with the Kurds and Sunnis. Any delays in forming a government after the
poll [will] make the problems of Iraqis worse. The threat of attacks is one
thing, but Iraq also badly needs services and investment. Actually, the country
cannot bear deadlock again."
The government formation process will be furthered complicated with the end of
the so-called transitional phase of Iraq's constitution, which expired after
the March 7 elections. The 2004 charter, approved overwhelmingly in a 2005
referendum, provided for a three-person presidential council as a means of
stabilizing Iraq's ethno-sectarian disputes until 2010.
There was an unofficial agreement that the council, which had the power to send
new legislation back to parliament up to three times before it was passed,
would consist of one Shi'ite, one Sunni and one Kurd.
This council was due to be dissolved after the election. In the future, there
will still be one president and two vice presidents, but the three will no
longer make decisions by consensus. The president will assume the powers of the
council.
The president and his deputies will be elected separately by parliament with a
50%-plus-one majority of parliamentary votes, instead of two-thirds as was
required in the past. The removal of this super-majority approval was meant to
make the election of these officials easier and hence speed up the formation of
a new leadership.
But there's likely to be even more protracted negotiation over the post of
president than in the past because it will have more power, with Shi'ite, Sunni
and Kurdish politicians all vying to make sure that one of their own is
appointed.
"The single presidency will create more problems," said Sami Atrushi, member of
the Iraqi parliament's legal affairs committee, who believes the transitional
phase is still needed to maintain stability. "The Sunnis and Kurds have started
a fierce campaign to try to secure this position before the election. I worry
about what will happen after the poll."
Forming a new government took almost five months following the 2005 elections,
and some experts believe that this new political framework will not prevent
similar months of confusion and delay.
"I am not optimistic about forming government in one month as hoped for by the
constitution," said Atrushi. "This time many coalitions are after the prime
minister position, so it is not easy to form government and maintain the
relations of the different communities as well. I believe we will see a
political crisis after the poll. In fact, this change [to the presidential
council] may make sectarian and ethnic problems worse."
Ali Kareem is an IWPR-trained journalist in Baghdad. Hemin H Lihony
is IWPR's local editor in Sulaimaniyah.
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