DAMASCUS - Early indications from Sunday's parliamentary elections in Iraq
favor Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his State of Law Coalition, although
official results for the 325-seat parliament will not be known until Wednesday.
These are the second national polls since the downfall of Saddam Hussein in
2003.
Amid tight security and a ballot marred by terrorist attacks that claimed the
lives of 38 people, 70% of voters turned out in Baghdad, while there was a 50%
increase in voting in Sunni districts such as al-Anbar province. More than 120
international monitors oversaw the polls, in which 6,000 candidates
representing 86 political parties campaigned.
Maliki seems to be the luckiest of all Iraqi heavyweights, having
antagonized many players in the Iraqi political scene. However, the entire
state apparatus - and plenty of funds - were at his disposal ahead of the
elections, enabling him to dish out money and rewards. The State of Law
Coalition came out as the largest list in the provincial elections of 2009,
receiving 28.8% of the vote and 126 out of 440 seats. Back then, as is the case
today, the coalition presented a very non-sectarian agenda, promising to
provide clean water, better schools, cheaper hospitals and stronger security to
all Iraqis.
Sunni heavyweights on the State of Law Coalition (such asFawzi Abu Risheh and
Yawer al-Shummari) also helped polish the premier's image in the eyes of
ordinary Sunnis, helping to split the Sunni vote and minimizing contenders on
different electoral lists who were allied to his predecessor, Iyad Allawi, or
the Iraqi Accordance Front. Maliki was also served well for the Sunni vote on
Sunday by establishing clear distance from Iran with his refusal to stand in
the Iran-backed Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a feat that overcame Sunni
voters' reservations about his performance.
The declining popularity of other Shi'ite groups, like the Supreme Iraqi
Islamic Council (SIIC), could be another factor if Maliki is declared victor
after Wednesday. In the provincial elections of 2009, the SIIC lost eight of
the 11 provinces it once controlled. The SIIC-headed United Iraqi Alliance
(UIA), of which Maliki had been a member, originally won 48.1% of the votes in
2005, gaining 140 out of 275 seats. But strong ties to Iran and the UIA's
engagement in a civil war, through the Badr Brigade, shattered its image in the
eyes of many voters.
The fact that the UIA was unable to bring reconciliation or security to Iraq
added to Shi'ite setbacks, as did the visible distance that former patrons like
the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, kept from all candidates during election
campaigning. Ammar al-Hakim, who succeeeded his father, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim,
after the influential SIIC leader's death from cancer in 2009, is also by no
means as seasoned or as popular a politician.
According to a government-mandated poll, Hakim's list will secure no more than
17.2% of parliament in 2010, a drop of more than 30% from where it stood in
2005. The secular agenda of other contenders like ex-prime minister Allawi, who
won no more than 9% of parliament in 2009, makes him unattractive to both
religiously driven Shi'ites and Sunnis. This explains why, according to the
same government poll, he will at best get no more than 17.2% seats in the next
parliament.
Maliki was also helped by the weak popularity base of INA hopefuls like Adel
Abdul Mehdi of the SIIC and Ibrahim al-Jaafari of Da'wa. Abdul Mehdi was
written off by many because of his Iranian connection. Jaafarri's poor track
record when serving as premier in 2005-2006 is remembered only too well by
voters.
Not only did Jaafarri aggravate civil war by refusing to do anything about
armed militias roaming the streets of Baghdad, he happened to be in power when
a terrorist attack struck at a holy Shi'ite shrine in the mixed Sunni-Shi'ite
city of Samarah in February 2006. The attack infuriated Shi'ites, who accused
him of poor leadership, and Sunnis, who accused him of not lifting a finger to
protect them when revenge attacks struck at the Sunni community in the
immediate aftermath of the bombings.
The real tipping point in Sunday's election is the overwhelming vote of the
Sunni community, which learned from its mistake of boycotting the 2005 poll.
Hundreds of Sunnis, including top-notch businessmen and professionals who left
Iraq in large numbers five years ago, collectively decided on casting their
vote this time to prevent the creation of a parliament that is packed with
Iran-backed, religiously driven Shi'ite politicians.
Their vote will have been divided between the State of Law Coalition, the
Allawi list and the Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest coalition of Sunnis
which nevertheless is unable to create a cabinet on its own, or win a majority.
It is probable that Maliki will win no more than 30% of seats - a large bloc,
but one that nevertheless does not command a big enough majority for Makili to
form a cabinet on his own. This means that the prime minister will only be
given a mandate to rule if he reaches out and shares power with other powerful
elements like the bloc loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr (which is likely to be
the greatest victor in the INA) and Sunnis.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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