Iran's nuclear swap option revived
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Yukiya Amano, the new director general of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), has raised hopes that a "confidence-building" plan for a swap of
nuclear material between Iran and a third party could still be salvaged.
At the same time, Amano used his opening speech to the Vienna meeting of the
agency's board of governors on Monday to reaffirm that Iran hadn't provided
"the necessary cooperation" to confirm all such material in Iran is for
peaceful activities. He did not, however, repeat a February 18 report about
"the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities
related to the development
of a nuclear payload for a missile".
With regard to the fuel swap, Amano's statement read:
In a letter to
the agency dated 18 February, 2010, Iran said it continued to wish to buy the
necessary nuclear fuel or, if this was not possible, to exchange some of its
LEU [low-enriched uranium] for reactor fuel from abroad. Iran requested the
IAEA to relay its request to potential suppliers and to facilitate the
provision of the fuel. The agency circulated Iran's letter to member states as
requested. The arrangement proposed by the agency in October 2009 remains on
the table. I believe it would ensure continued operation of the Tehran Research
Reactor and serve as a confidence-building measure. At the same time, I am
following up on Iran's February 18 request, in accordance with the IAEA
statute, and have been in contact with the relevant countries.
Iranian
Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki threw some weight behind Iran's letter.
"The issue of a swap, it is possible to be carried out," he said at a press
conference in Geneva on Monday. "The agreement could be made now, but the
realization, the fulfillment of the swap, needs time."
Mottaki has repeatedly stated recently that Iran is willing to ship some 400
kilograms of its LEU in two stages, under IAEA custody, provided there is a
guarantee of delivery of fuel rods for the Tehran reactor by the other side.
Seeking to address Iran's concerns, the United States, Russia and France
pledged to the IAEA that they would fulfill their commitment to the terms of
the IAEA-proposed fuel swap.
According to unconfirmed reports, William Burns, the US's point man in the Iran
nuclear negotiations, carried a message for Iran in his recent visit to Syria
that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad delivered to President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad. Reports of the message ignited the question of whether Damascus is
now fully involved as a behind-the-scenes intermediary between the US and Iran.
Tacit confirmation of the role could be taken from a semi-official
commentator's view in Tehran that "an exchange of views through third parties
is not mediation".
Thus the "Syria factor" in the Iran nuclear talks carries double significance.
On the one hand, it bolsters US diplomacy indirectly, and on the other it adds
to Iran's leverage by essentially nullifying any US-Israeli hope of weakening
Iran by wresting Damascus away. The Ahmadinejad-Assad summit put to rest any
such illusions in the foreseeable future.
When the US is lobbying the Arab world for a united front against Iran (not to
mention similar effort regarding Iran's Latin American allies), improved
Iran-Syria relations should not necessarily be considered as a net loss for the
US, particularly if Damascus has a moderating influence on Tehran.
Much depends on the nature of the Middle East peace process and the growing
signs of trouble between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah - as well as Hamas in
Gaza, whose military commander was assassinated by Israeli agents in Dubai in
January.
On the eve of the IAEA meeting, both Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei and the head of Iran's parliament (Majlis), Ali Larijani, made
forceful statements against nuclear weapons, aimed at further assuring the
outside world that Iran's nuclear program has a peaceful purpose.
Khamenei threw a jab at Amano by criticizing his report on Iran (which was
leaked a few days ago) as one influenced by the enemies of Iran, while Larijani
in his Japan visit last week invited his hosts to an international conference
on disarmament.
In his speech on Monday, Amano, who has been in the job since December,
defended his report. "It is longer than previous reports because I wanted my
first report to be a stand-alone document,'' he said. "I tried to make it
factual, without overdoing the detail."
However, the report's uncritical adoption of certain information raises
questions over Amano's objectivity, given that in his first press conference
after assuming the IAEA's mantle he readily admitted that there was no evidence
of weaponization on the part of Iran.
On Monday, Amano repeated that after extensive IAEA inspection of Iran's
facilities: "The agency continues, under its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement
with Iran, to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran,
but we cannot confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful
activities because Iran has not provided the agency with the necessary
cooperation."
Responding to Amano's request, Mottaki in his press conference promised "full
cooperation".
The stage is now set for a meaningful multilateral dialogue on Iran's nuclear
program that may result in a mutually acceptable deal that would represent a
modified version of the initial "fuel swap" agreement unveiled last October.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New
Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . For his Wikipedia entry,
click here. His
latest book,
Reading In Iran Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge Publishing
, October 23, 2008) is now available.
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