Now it's all about Iran sanctions
By Mohammed A Salih
WASHINGTON - If there were any doubts about what exactly United States
President Barack Obama meant when he warned Iran of "growing consequences"
during his State of the Union address last month, they seem to have been
dispelled by recent statements from top administration officials now beating
the sanctions drum loud and clear.
When US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates spoke of sanctions on Monday as the
sole remaining option in dealing with Iran's nuclear ambitions, he was echoing
another more outspoken colleague - Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
"The only path that is left to us at this point, it seems to me, is that
pressure track but it will require all of the international
community to work together," Gates said during a news conference on Monday in
Paris with French Defense Minister Herve Morin regarding the need for tougher
sanctions.
Herve was in "complete agreement" with his US counterpart. But should Iran have
a last-minute change of heart and concede to Western demands, the US and its
allies would be open to "a peaceful way to resolve this issue", the Pentagon
chief said.
Clinton told reporters last Friday, "We think it is important that we move now
toward looking at what pressure, what sanctions can be brought to bear on the
Iranians."
Talk of sanctions does not hurt in Washington and to a lesser degree in Western
European capitals, where many are weary of what they see as Iran's mind games
and perceived intransigence. In fact, as Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iran expert at
New York's Syracuse University, says, it has become "a popular sport in
Washington" to bash Iran.
The remarks by two senior officials of the Obama administration came after
recent contradictory messages coming out of Iran with regard to its nuclear
program. On February 2, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad told Iranian state
television that he had "no problems" with a deal with the West to swap Iran's
low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel rods.
Although Ahmadinejad's remarks were largely met with skepticism, they sparked
some hope that Iran might be pursuing a different course of action. However,
ending any enthusiasm that he might have generated in the outside world, in a
180-degree change, Ahmadinejad ordered the country's nuclear energy
organization last Sunday to start enriching uranium to 20%.
Iran needs 20% enriched uranium to operate a medical research reactor in the
capital, Tehran.
Obama made unprecedented overtures to Iran when he took office last year to
encourage Iran to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. The
US and its allies set a deadline for last December for Iran to respond to a
proposal for a nuclear fuel exchange deal, but Iran did not accede to Western
demands.
"The window for diplomacy is quickly closing. The language of the Obama
administration has changed dramatically and the actions of the Ahmadinejad
government hardly help build confidence," said Trita Parsi, president of the
National Iranian American Council. "At this stage, a period of punitive and
confrontational measures may be politically unavoidable."
Now, with additional sanctions promoted as the new tool for confronting Iran,
the key question is how and when the US can get two of the other members of the
"Iran Six" club, China and Russia, on board with other Western powers. The
group is made up of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security
Council plus Germany.
Although Russia has recently been more in line with Western powers over
imposing further sanctions on Iran, China has remained a serious opponent of
further punitive measures. The United Nations has imposed two rounds of
sanctions on Iran while the US has imposed its own, with more in the pipeline.
Many analysts attribute Beijing's position to the growing commerce between the
two countries. A recent Financial Times report says China is now Iran's number
one trading partner, overtaking the European Union (EU).
The volume of Iran's commerce with China stood at US$36.5 billion in 2008,
according to the FT, while the EU's trade with Iran totaled $35 billion for the
same year. In return, Iran supplies 11% of China's energy needs, according to
the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce.
"I am not holding my breath that these sanctions will work," Boroujerdi told
Inter Press Service. "It's really hard to sanction an oil-rich state that has
something that the rest of the world needs." Boroujerdi sees the ongoing
smuggling activity conducted through the country's borders as another factor
that could challenge the success of sanctions.
Many experts are deeply skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions and
consider them a failure in general. Although the US and its allies have spoken
of "smart sanctions" mostly aimed at Iran's military institutions, such as the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its affiliate businesses, there is a lot
of doubt as to whether a sanctions policy could bring an end to Iran's nuclear
program.
The US has imposed a ban on US companies dealing with Iran for the past three
decades but, in effect, the sanctions are considered largely ineffective as the
Islamic Republic has looked elsewhere for business.
Iran's nuclear program has not been only a source of controversy in the Western
world but also among Middle Eastern countries, particularly Israel. They doubt
Iran's nuclear activities are for peaceful energy purposes and charge that Iran
is seeking a nuclear bomb.
Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected this claim and say the program is
solely geared toward peaceful purposes, such as producing electricity.
As a deal between Iran and the West appears far-fetched at this point, calls
for regime change and use of force against Iran are on the rise. Richard Haas,
head of the Council on Foreign Relations, in an article entitled "Enough is
Enough", called on the Obama administration to work for regime change in Iran,
a policy former president George W Bush unsuccessfully pursued for years.
Daniel Pipes, a neo-conservative, has called for bombing Iran, saying it was a
way for Obama to "salvage his tottering administration" and protect the US and
its allies.
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