Bubble bursts on Iran nuclear options
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
NEW YORK - A much-anticipated meeting of the "Iran Six" nations at the weekend
to discuss the next steps for sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program ended
without any progress.
The New York meeting's failure to reach a decision has been blamed on China,
which sent a low-level representative in an open gesture to oppose new
sanctions on Iran. It bursts the bubble of unity among the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council - the United States, France, Britain, China
and Russia - who, along with Germany, constitute the "Iran Six".
The stage is now set for non-UN sanctions by the United States, which, along
with Israel, has proposed "crippling sanctions"
against Iran in the belief that it could use its atomic energy program to make
nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and
in line with its rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
"There have been ongoing negotiations and messages are being exchanged so we
have to just wait," Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news
conference in Tehran on Monday. "There are some minor signs indicating a
realistic approach, so any probable developments or progress can be discussed
later."
At this stage it is unclear what the content of any new sanctions to be adopted
by the UN would be, and even the US has shown some signs of ambivalence. The
alternative to further sanctions is the recognition of Iran's rights as long as
it remains transparent and in full cooperation with the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA).
It is more likely than not that China kept the other powers from getting
carried away by rhetoric against Iran, as their words often do not match their
policies or intentions.
With the war in Afghanistan going badly for the US, and troubling signs
hovering over Iraq, the last thing the US government wants is worsening
regional security triggered by tough action against Tehran. The Israelis appear
to have recognized this, as they have downgraded some of their media blitz
against Iran lately, although Israel hasn't given up on the idea of the
"crippling sanctions" which their allies in the US Congress are seeking through
legislation banning the export of petroleum products to Iran.
That legislation, already passed in the House of Representatives, is now
pending in the US Senate and sources tell the author there is serious
opposition to it from senators who prefer giving diplomacy a longer chance,
instead of resorting to coercive tactics that may backfire with the Iranian
population, which would be affected by sanctions. Still, the bill may be
adopted, in light of the failure over the weekend and the determination of
pro-Israel US lawmakers to punish Iran for what they perceive to be its steady
march toward nuclear weapons.
However, that perception isn't shared by some key figures in the US
intelligence community, who recently said they had not seen any evidence that
Iran had decided to develop nuclear weapons. This, together with the unraveling
of disinformation on Iran's atomic energy program, such as the fake neutron
trigger document, have strengthened the arguments of those in favor of
"normalizing" the Iran nuclear dossier as long as the nation remains faithful
to its NPT obligations and the terms of its safeguard and verification
agreement with the IAEA.
"The West should stop this useless game of coercion toward Iran that has no
legitimacy," says a Tehran University political science professor who advises
the Iranian government on international issues. He added that a real "shift in
world public opinion" in Iran's favor was beginning to take place, despite
negative press over last June's presidential elections and the subsequent
suppression of street demonstrations.
"China is making this bold statement today about no more sanctions because they
are smart and they can see the new drift of public opinion in the international
community that says 'where's the smoking gun?' to support the sanctions or even
war with Iran," the professor said.
Whether or not world opinion is shifting, what is beyond doubt is that as of
today, the proponents of sanctions on Iran, especially neo-conservatives such
as John Bolton, who has set up the United Against Nuclear Iran, have failed to
provide tangible evidence to back allegations of a "nuclearizing Iran", and
instead rely on disinformation routinely published by Israel-friendly media in
the US and in Europe.
After the weekend meeting in New York, momentum for a more vigorous push to
normalize Iran's nuclear file is likely to be generated, putting the IAEA, as
well as the UN, to new tests. Barring the unforeseen, pressure on the IAEA to
take a stand in favor of normalizing Iran's file will most likely grow. It will
be a litmus test of the IAEA's new director general to withstand the full force
of contrary pressures. In his first press interview as the agency's new head,
Yukiya Amano said clearly that there was no evidence Iran was manufacturing
nuclear weapons. His predecessor, Mohamed ElBaradei, has been making similar
statements since leaving office last month.
For its part, Iran can take further proactive steps to assure the outside world
of its peaceful intentions, such as promising to adopt the intrusive additional
protocol of the NPT in return for the normalization of Iran's file.
The Tehran University professor tells the author that some members of Iran's
parliament informed him they would be willing to pass legislation on both the
additional protocol and the Iran-IAEA subsidiary agreement if world powers
agreed to treat Iran "equally and respect Iran's right have a nuclear-fuel
cycle like other nations around the globe". Logically, this should come as
welcome news to some Western diplomats who seek a mutually satisfactory
resolution of the Iranian nuclear standoff.
Yet, in the US nothing short of a complete dismantling of Iran's enrichment
facilities would satisfy hawkish politicians who take as an article of faith
the argument that Iran is pushing ahead with a nuclear weapons program. The big
question is whether or not President Barack Obama can withstand the pressure
exerted by these and the wealth of pro-Israel lobbyists who want the heat kept
high on Iran.
The evidence so far suggests that the mere fear of appearing weak or in
"appeasement" toward Iran will keep Obama away from the only viable option that
is not so far kept open on Iran, despite talk of having "all options on the
table". That option is the normalizing of Iran's file in the absence of any
evidence of militarization. That peaceful option needs to be brought into the
open now that efforts at the UN to impose more sanctions have fizzled, thereby
narrowing the range of options.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New
Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . For his Wikipedia entry,
click here. His
latest book,
Reading In Iran Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge Publishing
, October 23, 2008) is now available.
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