WASHINGTON - In the wake of a botched Christmas Day airliner bombing claimed by
al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the direction of what used to be
called the "global war on terror" settled on Yemen this week, with the United
States slated to escalate economic and military assistance to the country's
beleaguered government.
Yemen has long been on the brink of failed statehood, plagued by corruption,
poverty and violence. More than a decade after civil war and reunification, a
secessionist movement in the south of the country still threatens stability, as
does an insurgency on its northern border with Saudi Arabia, led by the Houthi,
a powerful Shi'ite militia.
But Washington wants the government of President Ali Abdallah
Saleh to focus on AQAP, which President Barack Obama himself blamed this
weekend for the Christmas Day attempted bombing by a Nigerian national of a US
commercial airliner bound from Amsterdam to Detroit.
"Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula trained him, equipped him with those
explosives and directed him to attack a plane heading for America." Obama
declared on Sunday. "So as president, I've made it a priority to strengthen our
partnership with Yemen."
To spur Saleh to action, US officials have announced a doubling of the current
military and security aid package. According to General David Petraeus, the
head of US Central Command, who met Saleh last Friday in Sana'a, "We have, it's
well known, about $70 million in security assistance last year," said Petraeus.
"That will more than double this coming year."
Washington also plans to provide $63 million in development aid, US State
Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on Monday. This is in stark contrast to the
$8.4 million in the last year of George W Bush's tenure, 2008, and still a
marked increase from $40.3 million in 2009.
AQAP, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, was formally created in 2009 by the
consolidation of separate al-Qaeda affiliates in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It was
from the tribal areas of Yemen that al-Qaeda militants were able to launch
their first attack against US interests in the Gulf, with the 2000 bombing of
the USS Cole warship that claimed the lives of 13 US sailors.
AQAP has grown in strength in recent years, particularly after a February 2006
jailbreak that freed 23 militants in Sana'a, including its current leader,
Nasser Abdul Karim al-Wuhayshi.
Its ranks have been bolstered by the enlistment of former Saudi and Yemeni
Guantanamo detainees who were repatriated and enrolled in state-run
de-radicalization programs. Among them was Said Ali al-Shiri, now believed to
be al-Wuhayshi's deputy. AQAP has struck alliances with various tribal groups
that have historically defied the central government's writ and appears keen to
exploit the state's declining authority, which currently does not extend far
beyond the capital.
With Washington's strong encouragement, Saleh reportedly deployed 10,000 troops
last weekend to suspected AQAP strongholds in areas east of the capital. A
number of clashes were reported to have taken place on Monday as well.
This new campaign follows joint Yemeni/US air strikes on December 17 and 24,
which government officials claimed killed AQAP militants, including senior
operatives. Witnesses say the majority of those killed in the first strike were
women and children.
Some analysts believe the new offensive to be the latest example of the careful
balancing act practiced by Saleh - gaining strong support from Western
governments and Saudi Arabia, while pursuing only low-level al-Qaeda
operatives, in order not to offend influential tribal chiefs whose support he
needs to maintain power but who are also allied with AQAP.
Saleh has retained ties with a host of militant Sunni groups that he enlisted
to fight the southern secessionist movement in the country's brief 1994 civil
war, many of which were veterans of the mujahideen resistance to the Soviet
occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Some of these groups are sympathetic to
AQAP.
Faced with the Houthi insurgency in the north and the growing secessionist
movement in the south, Yemen's government "is worried about keeping Saleh in
power at any cost", wrote a Middle East analyst, Mark Lynch, on his widely read
blog on foreignpolicy.com this week. "The Yemeni government will no doubt be
happy to take American and international money and support [strikes] against
its enemies, but don't expect that it will do anything approaching what we want
them to do."
Saleh, whose government is also faced with falling oil revenues and rising
unemployment, is receiving critical support from Saudi Arabia as well. The
Saudis, eager to exert their influence next door while at the same time sending
a message to its own Shi'ite population, have obliged with military operations
against Houthi rebels and $2 billion worth of financial assistance.
In a report released last month, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
warned that Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, "rests today on a knife's
edge". It called on Washington to significantly increase both military and
development assistance as part of a larger counter-insurgency strategy to
ensure the state's survival and repel the growing AQAP threat.
CNAS, a think-tank from which the Barack Obama administration has recruited
heavily, also called for the US to seek a political settlement to the northern
"Houthi" rebellion so that "the government [could] take more seriously the
threat posed by transnational terrorists present on Yemeni soil".
Washington appears to be coordinating its efforts with those of Britain, whose
Prime Minister Gordon Brown called an international conference this month on
Yemen, as many Western governments fear it could become a staging ground for
terrorist attacks on their soil.
The conference, scheduled for January 28 in London, coincides with another on
the future of Afghanistan, also to be held in the British capital. Both
conferences will focus on how to deal with the threat posed by Islamist
radicalization through aid and reform.
British officials said London was expected to give $160 million to Yemen for
counter-terrorism purposes through 2011. However, both the US and British aid
figures are dwarfed by Saudi support last year.
The US, Britain and France closed their embassies in Sana'a on Sunday, followed
by Germany and Japan on Monday, citing intelligence reports that they were to
be targeted in further attacks. The missions were reopened on Tuesday after
Yemeni forces claimed the AQAP militants responsible for the threats had been
killed or arrested.
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday stressed the
importance of a multinational approach to Yemen, during a press conference in
Washington with Qatari Prime Minister Hamid bin Jassem al-Thani.
"We're going to listen and consult with those who have long experience in
Yemen, such as Qatar ... and work together to try and encourage the government
to take steps that will lead to a more lasting period of peace and stability,"
she said.
"It's time for the international community to make it clear to Yemen that there
are expectations and conditions on our continuing support for the government so
that they can take actions which will have a better chance to provide peace and
stability in the region," she added, alluding to the government's reputation
for corruption and collusion with militant Islamists.
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