DAMASCUS - As is customary on New Year's Eve, a colorful assortment of
astrologers, oracles and soothsayers appeared on Arabic satellite TV predicting
what 2010 has in store for the Arab world.
Some went full-board with what many people wanted to hear - predicting
annihilation of the State of Israel; others stated the obvious, claiming that
the Arab-Israeli conflict will not be solved and that Lebanon will remain
divided among its different sects in 2010.
One oracle stood out with relatively wise predictions: Lebanese Magi Farah. She
predicted Arab reconciliation in February, medical breakthrough discoveries in
April, and natural disasters following a lunar eclipse in June. Among other
things, she spoke
of another war in Lebanon, some time during June, July and August, in addition
to the rise and fall of heavyweights in the Arab world.
That prediction did not need a fortune-teller - all wars in Lebanon have
historically taken place in the summer, when the skies are clear and the soil
is firm for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to venture forth. What makes this
next predicted war possible is the rising tension between Hezbollah and the IDF
since late in 2009. The IDF has been carrying out military training for months,
bluntly saying that it is getting ready for another confrontation with
Hezbollah, to finish off business left behind by the war of 2006.
At that time, Israel promised to liberate its soldiers taken captive by the
Lebanese resistance, and to weaken and eventually break the military might of
Hezbollah. None of that happened four years ago, and by all accounts Hezbollah
is as powerful as ever militarily, having fully equipped itself thanks to the
backing of Iran. Politically, things have never been better for Hezbollah, now
that a cabinet of national unity has been formed to its liking, in which it and
its allies were given all the portfolios it had sought from Prime Minister Saad
Hariri.
Strongly represented in both the cabinet and parliament, it is now mending
fences with Saudi Arabia, ahead of an expected visit by Hezbollah secretary
general Hassan Nasrallah to Riyadh - pleased that Hariri has also mended fences
with the Syrians, in a landmark visit to Damascus in December.
The strength of Hezbollah is a nightmare for Israel, and nothing would please
the IDF and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more than a chance to strike at a
traditional enemy. Such a war, naturally, would spell disaster for Hariri,
given that Hezbollah is strongly represented in his cabinet, and would kill the
tourism season for Lebanon, which Hariri hopes will help attract tourists and
investment - mainly from the Persian Gulf - to his struggling country.
Nobody would want to go to or invest in a country haunted by war, even if it is
ruled by a pro-Western financial heavyweight like Hariri. That is exactly what
Israel wants: to punish Hariri for his newfound relationship with Hezbollah and
to launch a massive war that many predict will be the last for Hezbollah and
Lebanon, since the IDF will not settle for anything but total success.
Hezbollah seems undaunted by the prospect of such a war, claiming that it is
ready for it and that, this time, it is not going to take a defensive position
as in 2006, but will strike deep into Israeli territory - at Haifa and beyond
Haifa - and even occupy settlements in northern Israel, to bring down the
Netanyahu government.
What makes matters more complicated is the assumption that the US will no
longer involve itself at a micro level in Lebanese affairs, given that
Washington's focus is firmly on Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran. Going to
war, therefore, or preventing it, lies in the hands of regional players such as
Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. If war does happen, it will break either
Hezbollah or Netanyahu - signaling that a win-win scenario like 2006 is no
longer possible for the region.
There is nothing on the horizon to show that 2010 will bring any breakthrough
in Middle East peace, despite all the promising words by US President Barack
Obama last June. Obama has good intentions - no doubt about that - but he has
repeatedly failed to apply adequate pressure on Israel to get its leadership to
change course vis-a-vis settlement expansion in the West Bank or with regard to
the siege of Gaza.
A hardline Israeli government and a troublesome US Congress have both
incapacitated Obama, and rather than ruin his successful track record by
attempting to tackle a problem that all his predecessors have failed to resolve
since 1948, he will likely distance himself from any Middle East peace process,
preferring to get his troops back home from Iraq and right the wrongs done by
George W Bush in the Gulf.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton drowned the hopes of the optimists
in late 2009 by saying that a halt on settlements was no longer a precondition
for starting any peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis. That
stance, topped with a helpless Palestinian president who cannot deliver, a
Hamas leadership in Gaza, and an Israeli government that refuses to talk peace
with the Syrians so long as Turkish mediators are on board, makes a peace
breakthrough close to impossible in 2010.
Another obvious prediction for 2010 is that the troubled situation in Iraq will
not normalize. One reason is the March 7 elections, which will spark violence
before and during the vote and in their immediate aftermath. Sunni politicians
will struggle to get hold of parliament, learning from the boycott mistake of
2005, while Shi'ite statesmen will not relinquish the power that they have
enjoyed since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Regional heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Iran will have plenty to say in
the upcoming elections, each supporting its proxy in the complex web of Baghdad
politics, while non-state players such as al-Qaeda will exploit the predicted
violence, to strike at Riyadh, Tehran and the US within the Iraqi arena.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, currently on everybody’s radar, will
struggle to stay in power in March, although because of the horrific bombings
of August and October 2009, it is highly probable that he will begin his long
march into history two months from now. His Iranian allies have already made
success difficult for him by venturing into Iraqi oilfields in late 2009,
immersing themselves in Iraqi domestic affairs to cover up for the increasingly
unstable situation inside Iran.
If Maliki loses, all options are on the table as to who will replace him. One
option is the Iran-backed coalition that includes Sadrists and members of the
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. Another is a broad coalition of less powerful
Shi'ite parties, also supported by Iran, such as the alliance of current
Interior Minister Jawad al-Boulani. A strong Sunni comeback is not an option,
because of the divided Sunni front and the fact that Iran will never hear of
it.
Several regional figures are, therefore, going to make or break 2010:
Nasrallah, Netanyahu, and Maliki. They will hold the keys to security or chaos
in the Arab world, since anything that happens in Iraq or Lebanon will have its
ripple effects on Saudi Arabia, Iran, Palestine - and Syria.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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