Page 2 of 2 IAEA's not-so-secret satellite game
By Peter J Brown
Specifically, Asia Times Online was hoping to contact Karen Steinmaus, head of
the IAEA Satellite Imagery Analysis Unit (SIAU), which includes a staff of
approximately 15 to 20 satellite imagery analysts. The SIAU is part of the
Information Collection and Analysis Section within the IAEA's Department of
Safeguards' Division of Information Management.
The SIAU, according to an IAEA document, is responsible for "the exploitation
of satellite imagery which involves imagery analysis, including
correlation/fusion with other sources (open source, geospatial, and third
party); the production of analytical reports and other supporting materials and
systems to assist field operations and State evaluations; imagery collection
specifications; image processing using specialized software/hardware; the
processing/maintenance of geographic
information; and, the production/maintenance of site layouts and related
attributes". The SAIU is rapidly augmenting its existing optical imagery
analysis capabilities with a radar imagery analysis component.
Long before SAIU was created, the need for some form of "UN satellite agency"
was recognized. As one the world's leading experts on this subject, Professor
Bhupendra Jasani, a visiting professor in the Department of War Studies at
King's College in London, started writing about creating an International
Satellite Monitoring Agency (ISMA) inside the UN in the 1970s. He was
subsequently appointed by the UN to serve as an independent expert to assist in
the process of evaluating and supporting such a proposal, and he was a
co-author of a report on ISMA that was submitted to the UN General Assembly in
1981.
"The US and then USSR rejected the idea. (After a successful regional satellite
organization was created in Europe) the next step was to suggest a specialized
agency within the UN to use satellite-acquired information. The IAEA came to
mind, and I presented a paper at the Agency in 1994 that led to several
studies. I carried on under the UK and German Support Programme for the IAEA,
and this led to the establishment of the IAEA's Satellite Imagery Analysis
Laboratory," said Jasani.
It must be remembered that when the ISMA concept was first formally presented
by France at the "First Special Session of the UN General Assembly devoted to
Disarmament " in 1978 - it had been in motion for almost five years at that
point. France had its own reasons for wanting ISMA to become a reality.
"At the time, such an agency may have been a way for France to get hold of some
space imagery. France did not have its Spot Image nor its Helios satellites
back then. In the 1980s, though, the proposal was dropped from the French
agenda," said Dr Laurence Nardon, head of the Space Policy Program at the
Paris-based French Institute of International Relations.
Today, this ISMA proposal is basically obsolete, according to Donn Walklet, the
founder and CEO of California-based Terra-Vista, Inc. A leading expert on
satellite imagery, Walklet worked in the 1990s on the team that designed and
built Ikonos, the first commercial high-resolution earth observation satellite,
and he served as an advisor to the US Office of Naval Research as well.
"There is no doubt that the UN and IAEA are effectively using and probably
could more effectively use satellite imaging technology if they had more
control over the methods of producing and delivering the raw data," said
Walklet.
"However, [ISMA] is not going to happen considering the expense involved. Other
than creating another bureaucracy that needs excessive funding, there may be
legal and diplomatic implications of having a separate agency involving arms
length rules to prohibit unauthorized use of imagery by other UN components,"
he added.
According to Jasani, commercial satellite imagery today meets the requirements
set forth when the original ISMA concept took shape - something that made
feasible the establishment by the UN Security Council of the UN Monitoring,
Verification and Inspection Commission, which for example, has used satellites
to monitor Iraq.
"Commercial satellite imagery with 0.4m ground resolution is what the ISMA had
recommended for monitoring multilateral arms control treaties," said Jasani.
"However, one of the IAEA's weaknesses is that it has not acquired an
independent satellite imagery interpretation capability as the interpreters are
often from the nuclear weapon states. It has to train its own independent
interpreters."
Jasani wants the IAEA to reduce its dependence upon US commercial satellite
imagery.
"It does not buy data from India, Japan, Russia and Europe, for example, all of
which operate their own satellite with equal capabilities," said Jasani. "The
IAEA still does not recognize that for its tasks, it does not need 10
centimeter resolution images which come from military satellites, and that 40
centimeter data is adequate for most of its requirements."
The IAEA should seek out expert assistance from academic institutions "where
much of the research and development work is carried out. A change in attitude
may help. Also while very high resolution panchromatic images are available,
the IAEA should use multi-spectral data," said Jasani. "While it is still in
the developmental stage, hyperspectral sensors will be of considerable use to
the Agency, too."
How quickly the IAEA can access high resolution satellite imagery from member
countries, and establish a viable path of least resistance through contracts
with commercial companies is another issue entirely.
"Receiving it in a timely manner is what ElBaradei is referring to when he
references the imagery 'which sometimes I get and sometimes I don't get'. I
could only imagine the politics behind such requests," said Walklet.
"Logically, the UN and/or the IAEA would establish preferred customer
relationships with [commercial satellite] companies. It is the exceptions -
sensitive military and political locations of concern to US intelligence
agencies - that would need to be resolved in advance so that data flow would be
unimpaired under any circumstances."
Asculai considers outsourcing of the IAEA's entire satellite imagery
procurement and analysis activity an attractive option, and he specifically
names - but not exclusively - the Institute for Science and International
Security (ISIS) in Washington DC in the process.
"ISIS has been doing excellent work in analyzing the situation especially in
Iran and Syria, including the information received from commercial imagery.
This would be much cheaper," said Asculai. "One must realize that in most
cases, imagery serves in a supportive role, and the verification of findings or
suspicions must be made on the ground by inspectors. If this is not done, the
value of satellite imagery becomes limited."
When Yukiya Amano of Japan becomes the new Director General of the IAEA in
December, things may change quickly because, mixed messages or not, it will be
his turn to deal with the satellites and secret sites in Iran.
Peter J
Brown is a satellite journalist from US
state of Maine.
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