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    Middle East
     Sep 26, 2009
Page 2 of 3
Missile madness targets the money
By Julian Delasantellis

The uniformed military hated this, for it drained funding from programs that could support and protect troops in the present battlefields, not in some future depicted only in adolescent boys' Popular Mechanics magazines. The scientific community knew that the technology for this didn't exist then, nor was it going to be near for a long time at best. But for Republican and right-wing ideologues and operatives, Star Wars was a godsend; it implicitly promised the voters a return to the inviolable Eden of those 1950s' barbecues. With school desegregation policies also being abandoned, all that was needed was for the boys to get haircuts and the girls to wear dresses and it was once again et in Arcadia ego.

Star Wars, formally called the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) Office, was launched in fiscal year 1984 with a US$4 billion

 
appropriation, rising sharply after that. Back then, the science pages of major newspapers were full of leaks describing the next technological advancement of the program; one, a proposal to create space-based laser x-ray battle stations to destroy Russian missiles foundered on the fact that the space-based nuclear explosions to power the station were illegal under international treaty; also, the explosions intended to power the station, under many simulations, actually destroyed the station first.

President George H W Bush was not a true believer in missile defense; he would have just as happily seen its budget go to battlefield defense of troop deployments from short-term theater range missiles. Star Wars might have died right there, had it not been for the evening of January 18, 1991, during the first Gulf War. Buffalo Springfield once sang a song that described what happened that night fairly accurately - "There's something happening here/what it is ain't exactly clear."

On January 16, Saddam Hussein began launching his 1960s-era Soviet SS-1 "Scud" missiles (which themselves were rough copies of World War II German V-2s) towards targets in Saudi Arabia, where the allied and coalition armies were marshalling their ground forces prior to the invasion. Later, he would shoot them into Israel, hoping to break up the anti-Iraq coalition by bringing Israel into the war and thus forcing the Arab states out.

Saddam was feared to have a chemical biological weapons capacity that could possibly have been fitted on the top of the Scuds, so nerves were certainly heightened by the launches. On January 18, alarms were raised at King Abdul Aziz Royal Saudi Air Base, in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, as it received reports of a Scud launch.

Immediately, the launch of a US Air Force Mim-104, an anti-aircraft missile known as The Patriot, now modified to be used against ballistic missiles, was seen on the outskirts of the base. A few minutes later, an explosion was seen high in the atmosphere, and no Scud was seen to fall. Had what the MAD-advocating critics of missile defense always said was impossible just happened? Had, for the first time, a ballistic missile been targeted, tracked and destroyed by another missile. Had a bullet just hit another bullet?

The Patriot's success on that evening, as well on other evenings during the war, tremendously inspired the by-then dispirited remnants of Star Wars survivors. Although a February 25 Scud launch resulted in 29 US deaths at Dhahran after the Patriot's onboard computer miscalculated the distance between it and the target, what was said to be impossible had just been done; surely, it could also be done for the country as a whole.

But what exactly had happened with the Patriots and the Scuds?

It took a very crusty, curmudgeonly old coot, Brooklyn-born Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Theodore A Postol, to find out the truth. Going back over all the data and the tapes of the interceptions, he found that the air force's initial estimate of the Patriot's success ratio, 41 Scuds destroyed out of 42 targeted with Patriots, was wildly overestimated; Postol said that the actual success ratio could have been under 10%.

For instance, no Scud had actually been destroyed on January 18; the launch warning was a false alarm. Other times, what seemed to be a Patriot kill was actually a Scud breaking up in mid flight, something not at all unexpected with missiles of the Scud's ripe vintage.

Begrudgingly, the air force also downgraded its estimates of the Patriots' success, and the Postol discoveries did provide the new Bill Clinton administration cover to keep funding of Star Wars to a minimum.

But for the Republicans now in the opposition, Clinton's opposition to a national missile defense system was like a kid being given a light saber for Christmas. They could, and would use it all day long to eviscerate and lacerate the opposition.

From the 1996 Republican presidential platform:
We face two scandalous situations. First, most Americans do not realize our country has no defense against long-range missile attack. Second, the current occupant of the Oval Office refuses to tell them of that danger. So we will ...

The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) of the last two Republican administrations has been dismantled by Bill Clinton, who - contrary to the national security interests of the United States - clings to the obsolete Cold War ABM Treaty. Clinton slashed the funding budgeted by past presidents for missile defense and even violates the law by slowing down critical theater missile defenses. He has pursued negotiations to actually expand the outdated ABM Treaty, further tying America's hands, and hobbling our self-defense. ... In a peaceful world, such limitations would be imprudent. In today's world, they are immoral.

The danger of a missile attack with nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons is the most serious threat to our national security. Communist China has mocked our vulnerability by threatening to attack Los Angeles if we stand by our historic commitment to the Republic of China on Taiwan. We are vulnerable to blackmail - nuclear or otherwise - from a host of terrorist states that are now trying to acquire the instruments of doom. In the face of those dangers, Bill Clinton has ignored his responsibilities. In the most egregious instance, he directed that a National Intelligence Estimate focus only on the missile threat to the continental United States, deliberately ignoring the near-term menace posed to Alaska and Hawaii by long-range missiles now being developed or otherwise acquired by the communists who rule North Korea.

... The Republican Party is committed to the protection of all Americans - including our two million citizens in Alaska and Hawaii - against missile attack. We are determined to deploy land-based and sea-based theater missile defenses as soon as possible, and a national system thereafter. We will not permit the mistakes of past diplomacy, based on the immoral concept of Mutual Assured Destruction, to imperil the safety of our nation, our Armed Forces abroad, and our allies.
In 2000, after Clinton's full complement of eight years, the Republican platform was pushing the panic button ever harder:
Ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction threaten the world's future. America is currently without defense against these threats. The administration's failure to guard America's nuclear secrets is allowing China to modernize its ballistic missile force, thereby increasing the threat to our country and to our allies. The theft of vital nuclear secrets by China represents one of the greatest security defeats in the history of the United States. The next Republican president will protect our nuclear secrets and aggressively implement a sweeping reorganization of our nuclear weapons program.

Over two dozen countries have ballistic missiles today. A number of them, including North Korea, will be capable of striking the United States within a few years, and with little warning. America is now unable to counter the rampant proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and their missile delivery systems around the world.

The response of the current administration has been anachronistic and politicized. Stuck in the mindset and agreements of the Cold War and immune to fresh ideas, the administration has not developed a sensible strategy that responds to the emerging missile threat. They have no adequate plan for how they will defend America and its allies. Visionary leadership, not the present delay and prevarication, is urgently needed for America to be ready for the future. The new Republican president will deploy a national missile defense for reasons of national security; but he will also do so because there is a moral imperative involved: The American people deserve to be protected. It is the president's constitutional obligation."
Then, suddenly, the US Supreme Court spoke on who should be the next president, and in 2001 the pro-Star Wars gang was back in power. There was just one little problem preventing the immediate resumption and refunding of the program to Reagan-era levels - who now had the missiles the program was supposed to defend against?

Certainly not Russia. The breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 left Russian nuclear arsenals at barely 10% of what they had been, and with that 10% frequently in disrepair. In the early months of 2001, neo-conservatives such as William Kristol tried to gin up a supposed threat from communist China; a springtime dustup between the US and Chinese navies over a US naval surveillance plane further focused these thoughts.

After all, in order to make the people feel safe, there had to be a threat that the brave knight, George W Bush, could defeat. One afternoon, national security advisor Condoleezza Rice was scheduled to give a pro-missile defense speech on the Chinese threat, but she never made it. The afternoon she was supposed to deliver the speech was September 11, 2001.

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