Page 2 of 2 Clinton has her own problems
By Peter J Brown
Even if she wants to move more quickly as Webb and Dutton recommend, Clinton
cannot dictate how things will unfold inside Washington in terms of
interdepartmental relations. And all the talk of a "comprehensive strategic
communications plan" raises the important issue of how Clinton is going to
select the fires she intends to fight as well as how she goes about putting
them out, especially situations involving close interaction with the US
Department of Defense.
Despite the fact that Holbrooke has observed that the US is losing the
information war in Afghanistan, which he contends must be waged at the same
time as counter-insurgency efforts - the US is now launching another $150-plus
million "strategic communications campaign" there, too - chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, on the other hand, is saying the
opposite - enough is enough.
Mullen's view is that this sort of intensive US public relations activity
abroad is tantamount to a waste of time, and this puts him on a collision
course with Clinton.
"To put it simply, we need to worry a lot less about how to communicate our
actions and much more about what our actions communicate," said Mullen.
"Because what we are after in the end - or should be after - are actions that
speak for themselves, that speak for us. What we need more than anything is
credibility. And we can't get that in a talking point."
The State Department is listening, but is no doubt baffled at the same time by
the actions of the Defense Department's new African command, AFRICOM, which are
running counter to Mullein's comments. Somehow, AFRICOM ended up with a
strategic communications budget in Somalia estimated to be perhaps 20 times
larger than what the State Department has been allocated for the same purposes.
Strategic communications headaches aside, Africa is already a source of many
sleepless nights in the State Department. Morale and managerial performance may
be improving there, but Africa must now be seen in the context of someone
else's rapidly expanding sphere of influence. Because China is becoming
hyperactive in so many African countries, the US must be more responsive and
ready to execute programs more quickly.
Clinton's advisors are watching China as it maneuvers its way through Africa
and Latin America, knowing that she has gone to great lengths to be cautious in
her statements about China, both here and in Beijing earlier this year. With
each passing day, however, Clinton is exposed to many valid and meaningful
viewpoints, which serve to pull her in different directions simultaneously. For
example, in his August Pacific Forum CSIS paper, "Obama and East Asia: No Room
for Complacency" Professor Gerald Curtis of Columbia University wrote:
The
Obama administration went overboard in treating China as a kind of peer partner
during the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue held in Washington in July
2009. President Obama's statement that the US-China relationship "will shape
the 21st century" implies much greater Chinese power to influence global
affairs than it actually possesses or is likely to possess for many years to
come ... It is one thing to seek closer US-China relations - and continued
Chinese purchases of US Treasury notes - but quite another to suggest that
China in its relationship with the United States has the power to "shape the
21st century" or that it is in the US national interest to encourage it to
think that it has.
In addition, Curtis urged Clinton to pay
closer attention to East Asia because, "President Obama and Secretary Clinton
might find themselves treating East Asia with a kind of benign neglect,
camouflaged with ritualistic rhetorical affirmation of East Asia's importance
to the United States. Inattention and complacency, however, would leave the
administration in a position of constantly having to catch up with developments
in East Asia rather than do what it should do, which is to design a strategy
that can help shape those developments."
Such statements along with the signals being sent by Webb and his sub-committee
must drive Clinton's staff crazy. After all, she is not a figurehead or someone
who is content to sit on the sidelines.
Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and likely the
next prime minister, is not making things any easier for Clinton. His recent
article entitled, "My Political Philosophy" in the September issue of the
monthly Japanese journal Voice is, in effect, an attempt to prod Japan into
abandoning globalization and establishing a new sense of East Asian community.
"The East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality in its economic
growth and even closer mutual ties, must be recognized as Japan's basic sphere
of being. Therefore, we must continue to make efforts to build frameworks for
stable economic cooperation and national security across the region," wrote
Hatoyama. "As a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis,
the era of US-led globalism is coming to an end and we are moving away from a
unipolar world toward an era of multipolarity."
It is not clear how Clinton will respond. She may elect to immediately send
someone to convince the DPJ's senior advisors that Japan stands to win more
than it might lose by maintaining its strong support for globalization. Or
perhaps, she will prefer to do nothing, at least for the next month or so.
New US ambassadors have just arrived in Beijing and Tokyo. And while Hatoyama
sounds like a radical, he makes it clear that "the Japan-US security pact will
continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy". He goes on to
state, "China, which has by far the world's largest population, will become one
of the world's leading economic nations, while also continuing to expand its
military power."
Perhaps this is merely an attempt to catch Clinton's attention, especially now
that China has established itself as Japan's largest trading partner. The DPJ's
upset victory, and the toned down mood of North Korea might allow Clinton a bit
of time to reflect and reset in East Asia.
Unfortunately, she has little time to spare thanks to the deteriorating
situation in Pakistan, and the fact that President Hamid Karzai may emerge the
winner in a rigged election in Afghanistan just after he insulted Clinton with
his support for a measure which will compel women in Afghanistan to forget
their dreams of living free in the 21st century.
With all this swirling around her, there is still no question that Clinton is
firmly at the wheel of the US State Department. She must constantly check all
the dials to ensure that the engine is running smoothly as she hurtles down the
highway - hoping to avoid any roadside bombs around the turn.
Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the US state of Maine.
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