The US puts Turkey on center stage
By Patrick Wrigley
ISTANBUL - The arrival of United States President Obama in Ankara on Sunday
signaled the growing importance of Turkey for US foreign-policy interests.
The country, which has proved something of an enigma to the US over the past
five years, is now taking center stage as the potential key to unlocking the
issues which will define Obama's presidency overseas, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan
and Israel and Palestine.
Obama also reached out to the entire Muslim world. Addressing the Turkish
parliament, he declared that the US is "not at war with Islam", a clear move to
rebuild ties with both Ankara and the
Islamic world that have been strained over the past eight years.
Concluding his keynote address, Obama employed a homespun homily: "There is an
old Turkish proverb: 'You cannot put out fire with flames.' America knows this.
Turkey knows this. There are some who must be met with force. But force alone
cannot solve our problems, and it is no alternative to extremism. The future
must belong to those who create, not those who destroy. That is the future we
must work for, and we must work for it together."
Such balmy rhetoric, and the choice of Turkey for his first visit to a
Muslim-majority country, suggests that Obama has identified Ankara as a key
ally in rebuilding America's reputation in the Muslim world. According to Dr
Sedat Laciner, director of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research
Organization, "We hope that Turkey will be a real strategic partner in the
Obama term. There is no country like Turkey. It is Muslim, a NATO [North
Atlantic Treaty Organization] member and an EU [European Union] candidate ...
It is an antidote to al-Qaeda extremism [and] the best place to make a call to
the Muslim world for cooperation with the US."
While Obama is undoubtedly seeking a secular and democratic partner in the
Islamic world, he readily confessed that the two NATO allies have had a rocky
ride over the past few years.
Turkey's Islamist-orientated government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
perhaps aware of popular sentiment, has continually confounded the US on an
array of issues. In 2003, the government refused to allow the US to use Turkey
as a staging post for its invasion of Iraq. Erdogan has also been unfazed by US
pressure when signing energy and investment deals with Iran.
"The US has an opportunity to regain some lost ground in Turkey," Svante
Cornell, research director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road
Studies Program, told Asia Times Online. "But that is also hindered by Turkey's
foreign policy shift, most obviously expressed in Erdogan's policies on the
Caucasus and Middle East which suggest a sliding away from Turkey's traditional
position as a Western ally, and moving toward a position of equi-distance
between the West, on the one hand, and Russia or Islamic radical movements like
Hamas [in Palestine], on the other."
Turkey's European vocation
A pact for greater cooperation in dealing with the issue of the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK), viewed by both countries as a terrorist organization, was
last year's watershed event.
Washington's increased willingness to share intelligence on the PKK in northern
Iraq has improved both official and public sentiment towards the US, and Obama
sought to keep up the momentum. "There is no excuse for terror against any
nation. As president, and as a NATO ally, I pledge that you will have our
support against the terrorist activities of the PKK," he said.
But some analysts believe rhetoric alone will not suffice. According to
Laciner, "If the Iraqi Kurds continue to ignore the PKK in Iraq, Turkey may
declare some parts of the region, a 'no man's land'."
Obama will be keen to avoid this and has aimed to capitalize on the positive
noises coming out of Ankara, including the use of Turkish soil during the US
withdrawal from Iraq. According to Yusuf Kanli, an analyst for Hurriyet Daily
News, "If Obama is really for change ... which means that rather than acting as
a policeman, the US will be wielding soft power for the resolution of problems.
The US will want a stable, secular, democratic Turkey as a base and a role
model for the region."
It appears Obama recognizes this as he mends bridges with Ankara. On Sunday,
and again in his speech to the Turkish parliament, he urged EU leaders to
accept Turkey's accession to the European Union. Obama also looked to assuage
Erdogan over the potential appointment of Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh
Rasmussen to the top post of NATO. Turkey had opposed the nomination over
Rasmussen's support for Danish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed which angered
the Muslim world in 2005.
"What is clear is that the administration has observed Turkey's slide away from
the West and that it is operating from an assumption that many of America's
problems in the world were a result of the [George W] Bush administration's
image and policies. Hence it was considered that reaching out to Turkey may
help prevent a further deterioration in relations," said Cornell. "Moreover,
visiting Turkey on the end of a European, not Middle Eastern, tour suggests
American support for Turkey's European vocation."
The Armenia question
Despite the prevalence of symbolic gestures, Kanli of Hurriyet Daily News
believes the trip did highlight a willingness between the two nations to
refresh and renew cooperation.
"There are lots of issues to discuss, but it all boils down to the future of
Turkish-US relations. "Will it be a rough ride with the Armenian genocide bill
and the potential closing of the Incerlik [military] base, or will it be a
chance to come out of the traumatic residue of the Bush era?" he said.
The US wants a secular, democratic partner in the Middle East, but Washington
must tread carefully on certain issues, none more so than the question of
Armenia. Obama sparked unease in Turkey with his campaign pledge to support a
Congress resolution to recognize the acts of the Turks in 1915 against the
Armenians as genocide.
Obama's stance on Armenia has already had certain implications. According to
reports, Erdogan may be preparing to announce a protocol for establishing a
joint commission between Turkey and Armenia to discuss border issues, trade and
a historical commission to look into the events of 1915.
Obama has welcomed the approach and sought to assuage Turkish fears. "I know
there are strong views in this chamber about the terrible events of 1915. While
there has been a good deal of commentary about my views, this is really about
how the Turkish and Armenian people deal with the past. And the best way
forward for the Turkish and Armenian people is a process that works through the
past in a way that is honest, open and constructive," he said on Monday.
Still, many Turks remain resentful of US pressure in this area, not least
because of the Armenian occupation of Nagorno Karabakh, an area claimed by
neighboring Azerbaijan. "The borders have been closed because Armenia does not
recognize Turkey's national borders and occupied about 17% of Azeri territories
which is bigger than occupied Palestine territories," said Laciner.
Kanli believes that Obama's approach to the Armenian question will present a
"headache" and could lead to a deterioration in relations.
As in many of the bilateral issues, the minutiae of touchy policy issues could
still present stumbling blocks between the two countries. Obama must be aware
that the US needs Turkey for two reasons: as a model of Muslim democracy and as
a base for US troops and military equipment.
But Kanli and others remain optimistic that US foreign policy is taking on a
more pragmatic bent. "The US will put before everything else its real
interests. The vital importance of Incerlik [military base in eastern Turkey]
for the US should not be underestimated. How could the US antagonize Turkey?
Turkey is very important for the US," he said.
Patrick Wrigley is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul. He writes
extensively on Turkey and the Middle East.
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