Page 2 of 2 Iran's new satellite challenges China By Peter J Brown
exchanges by the US government. This stems from a reasonable interpretation of
a US decision made in June 2008 involving a prominent Chinese rocket and launch
service company, China Great Wall Industry Corp (CGWIC), which had been
punished repeatedly by the US and most recently in June 2006 for its role in
supplying Iran with certain missile components and related technical data. [2]
CGWIC was removed - or "de-listed" - in June 2008 from the US Treasury
Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control's list of Specially Designated
Nationals and Blocked Persons pursuant to Executive Order 13382. This order
relates to "Blocking Property of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators and
Their Supporters'' and it meant, that after a period of two years had elapsed,
China's
highly visible dealings with Iran under the above-mentioned trio of regional
Asian projects have been given a clean bill of health by the US.
But somehow, China is failing to make the world aware of this situation. And
that could have grave consequences for Iran as many in Israel see the launch of
Omid by Iran as now almost guaranteeing an Israeli attack on Iran.
Remember that Tarikhi's article appeared in Position magazine at almost the
exact same time that this CGWIC de-listing happened in mid-2008, "[Omid's]
launch is scheduled for mid-2008," wrote Tarikhi. "Omid will fly in near-polar
orbit 650 kilometers above the Earth. It will pass over Iran six times every 24
hours. It will be the country's second satellite. The first was the
Russian-made Sina-1, which was launched on 27 October 2005. At that time, Iran
became the 43rd nation to own a satellite."
Here, Tarikhi's published launch date for the Omid satellite is noteworthy
because, despite many recent assertions to the contrary, it confirms that
Omid's actual launch date was months behind schedule.
This article stands out particularly in light of the reaction worldwide to
Omid. Numerous governments seemed surprised by Omid's appearance, and strongly
voiced their serious, grave and troubling concerns. The latest twist comes over
the weekend from Dr Jeffrey Lewis and his team at www.armscontrolwonk.com. As
they go about analyzing launch and payload data from Iran's Safir two-stage
rocket, they are apparently encountering an Iranian launch vehicle far more
sophisticated - and therefore far more troubling - than they had previously
anticipated. Check it out.
"Like its 'civilian' nuclear efforts that remained undeclared for two decades,
long-range ballistic missiles are likely being developed under cover of Iran's
space program. Indeed, Tehran's space work could lead to the development of an
inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) able to reach all of Europe and the
United States with a WMD [weapon of mass destruction] payload," wrote Peter
Brookes, a Washington DC-based Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former
US D deputy assistant secretary of defense, in a widely published column last
week.
"Fact is, with this successful launch Tuesday, [President] Mahmud Ahmadinejad's
Iran has moved one step closer to developing that ICBM capability. More
launches are expected," Brookes added. "Another troubling sign is Iran launched
its satellite ahead of schedule. Just last year, Tehran said it would send its
first indigenously-produced satellite into space in mid-2009."
Again, Brookes is by no means alone as many observers in the West declared that
Omid has appeared months ahead of schedule, apparently overlooking or
disregarding entirely what Tarikhi had stated clearly to the contrary in
mid-2008.
There is no question that late arrival or not, Omid's impact on Israel has been
enormous.
"Iran has launched its first domestically made satellite into orbit; [this]
missile carrying satellite can be used to carry nuclear warheads to Israel -
and to Europe; the world has not found a way to stop or slow down Iran's
nuclear weapons program; this means an Israeli attack on Iran is becoming more
likely," wrote Ben Frankel on the day after Omid launched. "The countdown
toward [an] Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has begun." [3]
The US Department of State, mindful of Israel's finger on the trigger,
immediately issued this following brief statement hours after the launch of
Omid.
Iran's ongoing efforts to develop its missile delivery
capabilities remain a matter of deep concern. Recently, Iran's development of a
space launch vehicle (SLV) capable of putting a satellite into orbit
establishes the technical basis from which Iran could develop long-range
ballistic missile systems. Many of the technological building blocks involved
in SLVs are the same as those required to develop long-range ballistic
missiles.
Working with the United Nations, we have passed a number of UN Security Council
Resolutions, including Resolution 1737, which require states to take the
necessary measures to prevent the supply of, inter alia, specified
equipment and technology that could contribute to Iran's development of nuclear
weapons delivery systems. We will continue with our friends and allies in the
region to address the threats posed by Iran, including those related to its
missile and nuclear programs and its support of terrorism.
Only
a few days later, as he addressed security conference attendees who had
assembled in Munich, US Vice President Joe Biden softened the tone of the US
message as he reached out to Iran.
"We will be willing to talk to Iran and to offer a very clear choice: continue
down the current course and there will be continued pressure and isolation;
abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism and there
will be meaningful incentives," he said.
In the meantime, what is China to do? China must realize that all the chips are
down, and Iran's fate hangs in the balance. Of course, China has nothing to
lose here. Doing nothing entails no real political risk.
Yes, the ball is entirely in Israel's court, and China's actions may not affect
the outcome at all. That is the bottom line. And yet, timing is everything, and
China should act in a responsible fashion now. China can play its APSCO card,
and take a stand to possibly help avert widespread bloodshed, and a violent
confrontation between Israel and Iran which could spin wildly out of control.
India is too engaged with Israel in space to speak out, while Japan is bottled
up by North Korea's overall instability, and its increasingly hostile
statements lately. China's prolonged silence after having recently signed
timely cooperative agreements with Japan and South Korea to further regional
cooperation in space, would be unfortunate.
In this instance, such silence will only breed further distrust and suspicion.
In the days to come, we only can only wait and see how China reacts to North
Korea's next missile launch. Again, an important opportunity will present
itself, and China will once again be obliged to stand up and speak out,
hopefully. Of course, we can only hope.
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