BAGHDAD - Despite mixed appraisals of the turnout for its provincial elections
on Saturday, Iraqis still see the relatively peaceful vote as a sign of
political recovery from the United States-led invasion and occupation.
Polling picked up after a slow start on Saturday in the 14 provinces of Iraq
that are voting after the 2005 poll, and figures from Iraq's Independent High
Electoral Commission show that 7.5 million or 51% of the more than 14 million
registered voters took part.
The national turnout was lower than the 55.7% registered in the 2005 provincial
elections. But US Ambassador Ryan Crocker
characterized the turnout as "large", and members of the election commission
said Sunday that they were pleased with the results, reported the Los Angeles
Times.
Security was tight, and violence successfully kept to a minimum. A curfew was
in place from 10pm Friday until 5am to block all traffic in the main cities,
and Iraq's borders with Syria and Iran were closed.
Five candidates were assassinated in the runup to the election - three just two
days before the vote, and in Tikrit, the hometown of executed dictator Saddam
Hussein, four flash bombs exploded near polling centers, without causing
injuries.
But election day was generally free of major attacks, marking the security
gains that have been made in the country. Across Baghdad young boys took
advantage of the vehicle curfew to play football in the streets using boxes and
rocks as goal posts.
Iraqi, United Nations and US officials have hailed the elections as a success,
with Barack Obama, the US president, praising the polls.
The provincial elections were originally scheduled for October 1 last year, but
delayed due to disagreements over electoral procedures for Kirkuk, which is
hotly contested between Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomens. Polls were not held
there mostly due to the controversy over control of the oil-rich region.
Provincial and legislative elections were last held on January 30, 2005. The
focus in that election was on voting for the 275-member Iraqi National
Assembly, but they led to an increase in power struggles, sectarianism, and
fragmentation of the country.
Most Sunni Muslims boycotted the 2005 elections in the face of persecution and
violence at the hands of the US forces and Shi'ite militias, and Sunnis have
disproportionately small representation on provincial councils since. Sunni
participation in the 2005 election was around 2%, but has been estimated by
some to be as high as 60% this time around.
A total of 502 political parties were registered for the election, fielding
14,431 candidates - including 3,912 women - contesting 440 seats. Most of the
parties have been established since the 2005 elections.
The provincial councils have the power to make laws and allocate funds for
finance and reconstruction projects, and provincial governors can appoint and
dismiss provincial police chiefs and senior security officials.
The 2005 elections were held under a "closed list" system, where voters
selected a party or coalition and the party or coalition then selected the
individual parliamentarian. This time, the election was "open list", where
voters could select either a party or an individual candidate.
But the new procedure led to thousands of people being unable to vote, as they
failed to find their names on voter registration lists, reported Reuters.
Another potential contributor to the low turnout was the 2 million Iraqis
internally displaced by the war and ensuing violence - though they were given a
choice between voting in their original areas or where they now live. Another 2
million who have fled the violence in Iraq could not vote.
Two parties supported by the majority Shi'ite Muslim community won a majority
of seats between them in 2005, and parties representing the Kurdish community
were also strongly represented. While there are no accurate figures, an
estimated 60% of Iraq's population are Shi'ite Muslims, 20% Sunnis and 20%
Sunni Kurds. Iraq has a population of about 26 million.
Within Sunni groups, differences have arisen between the Iraqi Islamic Party
(IIP), an Islamist party that holds council seats already because they
participated in the 2005 vote, and the pro-US Awakening Councils, some of which
have threatened to use "any means necessary" to fight the IIP if they take the
elections by fraud.
In Shi'ite areas, particularly in southern Iraq where they are the clear
majority, there is expected to be even more volatility, with rival Shi'ite
political groups contesting for power. Fierce competition surfaced also between
the government Islamist parties and the opposition Sadrist movement, which
considers itself non-sectarian. Many analysts believe the Sadrists will win a
majority of seats across southern Iraq and parts of Baghdad.
Many expect a backlash against the incumbent religious parties in favor of more
secular parties, and although official results are not expected for a few days
early forecasts show Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has strengthened his
position as the country's leader after a strong showing by his allies in Iraqi
provincial elections, reported al-Jazeera.
His State of Law coalition appeared to have won in all nine southern Shi'ite
provinces, as well as Shi'ite East Baghdad, and was "competing for second or
third" place in other provinces, a government official close to the prime
minister told the news agency.
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