Fragile hope ahead of Iraqi elections
By Dahr Jamail
BAGHDAD - Uncertainty and tension are running high in Baghdad ahead of
provincial elections scheduled for January 31. But this time fears are also
tempered with new hope.
"Iraq is under transition into a more stable [country]," former Iraqi interim
prime minister Iyad Allawi told Inter Press Service (IPS). "The US is pulling
out soon because of the new administration, so Iraqis need to take matters into
their own hands," said Allawi, speaking at the headquarters of the Iraqi
National Accord party in Baghdad.
Allawi, who was said to have provided "intelligence" about alleged weapons of
mass destruction to the British MI6, is a former exile, and a controversial
figure disliked by many in Iraq. Nevertheless, he speaks for many of the
leading political figures running in the
upcoming elections.
"The first grave mistake of the Americans was to dismantle the Iraqi Army and
intelligence services," said Allawi, who has hardened his stance against the US
in hope of garnering support from Iraqis. "And their setting of the Iraqi
Governing Council along sectarian and ethnic lines also helped generate the
sectarianism we are still struggling with today."
Iraq is essentially not a sectarian country, he said. "This was the excuse
given for their [the US's] mistakes."
There is less violence in Iraq today than there was even six months ago, but
dozens of Iraqis continue to be killed daily. Critical infrastructure such as
supply of electricity and water remains insufficient. According to the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, there are still more people fleeing the
country than returning to their homes.
Many Iraqis hope that the elections will bring more stability and improve their
lives.
"I just hope the elections will not be corrupt, and that the good people will
win," said Ali Yassin, a day laborer in Sadr City, a sprawling slum area of
Baghdad home to roughly three million people.
Others have their doubts. "I'll not be voting for anyone," said Salah Salman,
another laborer in Sadr City. "We cannot trust any of the candidates, just like
during the elections of 2005. What have they done for us? What services have
they provided our country?"
The elections, for 444 seats in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces, will be contested by
14,431candidates from more than 400 parties. The agenda covers a spectrum: from
the central issue of federalism to a range of disputes along sectarian lines.
That puts someone like Fattah Sheikh on quite another side from Allawi. Sheikh
is a Sadrist, a follower of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. His constituency is
the impoverished Sadr City, the poorest area of Baghdad.
"I am going to make Sadr City Iraq's 19th province," Sheikh said while
campaigning along garbage-strewn streets choked with traffic. "We have more
people in need than most other provinces, and this is our time to get proper
political representation."
Sheikh, an energetic and charismatic politician, is campaigning actively,
kissing children and shaking hands with elders as he moves about. "There are
those running for office who do not talk to the people, but here I am, on foot,
no guards, among my brothers and sisters," he said.
Sheikh's politics differs greatly from that of Allawi, because Allawi has
worked closely with the US government through the occupation. Sheikh has
vehemently opposed the occupation from the beginning, and continues to call for
immediate withdrawal of all occupation forces.
Abbas Al-Dahbi, who is also running on Sheikh's political list, said "we have
hope for this election. We hope to achieve our dreams because this government
didn't achieve anything for us".
These leaders seem to be finding strong support in Sadr City. "The new people
from these elections will serve us better," said mechanic Aziz Sharif . "This
is because the Iraqi people know their candidates this time, unlike during
2005."
The US government has made it clear that this election is critical for the
future stability of Iraq.
A changed political landscape
IPS correspondent Ali Gharib reports from Washington that despite the
possibility of isolated violence and other problems, close watchers of the
elections say a relatively smooth process could be a bellwether for better days
ahead, according to a new report.
"Whereas the January 2005 elections helped put Iraq on the path to all-out
civil war, these polls could represent another, far more peaceful turning
point," said the report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) released on
Tuesday.
The report argues that at least some of the wrangling of the two-year sectarian
war (2005-2007) has now been put aside in hopes of nationalism and good
governance.
The most poignant example of this is Prime Minister Nori al-Maliki, who has
effectively reached out, made concessions, and won important military victories
in the past year.
That said, it is unclear whether any of the ruling parties will hold onto power
or not - and the uncertainty of Western observers is probably a good sign that
processes are being formed in which Iraqis are making their own choices about
government.
"The elections inevitably will have severe shortcomings," said the ICG report.
"Yet even an imperfect outcome is bound to begin to redress some of the most
severe problems associated with the 2005 elections - from corruption and
mismanagement to the enormous political imbalances generated by the boycott of
Sunni Arabs and many followers of Muqtada al-Sadr."
The start of that "redress" is especially well-timed with US President Barack
Obama coming to power. Obama campaigned on ending combat operations in Iraq and
"responsible withdrawal" of many of the US's 140,000 troops.
"[The provincial elections will] help shape the contours of Iraq's future
politics as the Obama administration begins to redeploy troops from the
country," said a second report called "The Fractured Shi'ites of Iraq" released
this week by the Center for American Progress (CAP).
In its recommendations to US policy-makers, the CAP report suggests that Iraqi
ownership of the process is of great importance by recognizing that Iraqis'
ability to "sort out their politics on their own terms", although it may come
with some fraud and even violence, is essential.
"[The US] troop presence continues to artificially shape Iraq's power
balances," said the report, noting the potential for a "disconnect" between
priorities of "security" and "sustainable governance".
Although these are provincial elections set up by a law passed last February,
as the first since 2005 they are likely to shed a great deal of light on both
political progress toward reconciliation and what is to come in the next
parliamentary contest later this year or early next year.
"Since the last elections in Iraq the political landscape has changed
dramatically. With the emergence of the Sahwa in the Sunni areas and the
constantly changing fortunes of the main Shi'ite parties, the provincial
elections represent the first concrete evidence of the state of politics in
Iraq today," Jason Gluck, a rule of law adviser at the congressionally funded
US Institute of Peace, told IPS.
Early voting is already taking place, and by the end of January 31 the
electorate will have chosen the make-up of the 14 provincial councils.
The reformation of those councils is important in several ways. For example,
inclusion that was missing from the last round due to the boycotts will likely
be corrected. The Sunni establishment, having for the most part cast away its
broad support for the insurgency with the formation of the Sahwa, or Awakening
Councils, will be looking to cash in its compromises for a seat at the table.
Another benefit will be a clear mandate from last February's election law.
Although this may not help ease the corruption that has been rampant in the
councils, it may help to give gravitas to local bodies of governance.
In the confusion and violence following the fall of Saddam Hussein, and the
building of these institutions from the ground up since then, many of the
proposed roles for the provincial councils went unfulfilled. The councils
"often felt toothless", said the ICG report, because they were given little
meaningful authority and deprived of capabilities like revenue collection to
build themselves up.
But all the problems with the nearly four years of dysfunctional councils may
also end up hampering the effort to bring legitimacy through turn-out. Those
disillusioned with the governance of the inept councils may hold out and
prevent a majority of the electorate from having their say.
In fact, it was similar disillusionment that caused the downfall of the last
round of elections. The utter lack of any sort of governance or political
system in the wake of Saddam's fall from power caused people to appeal to
religious authorities for voting instructions.
This voting on sectarian lines - or in the case of some Sadrists and Sunni
Arabs, not voting at all - hardened the fracturing of society and perhaps
contributed to the descent into all out sectarian war that has characterized
much of the past several years in Iraq.
But having those religious and sectarian parties and politicians in power may
provide a boon to the nascent democratic process in Iraq.
"Having experienced the failure of outgoing councils to deliver basic
services," said the ICG report, "voters have grown disaffected by with both the
religious parties and the clerics that sponsored them."
This prevailing disappointment with the outcomes of the 2005 election have
forced both ruling parties and challengers to retool their messages in what has
been a promisingly high level and intensity of campaigning.
"Facing an electorate disillusioned by mismanagement and corruption, the ruling
parties have been forced to adapt," said the report. "They are hoisting the
banner of patriotism, clean politics, and effective service delivery."
Furthermore, the pitfalls of the existing parties could force voters into the
hands of fresh candidates that could re-invigorate Iraqi politics.
"[V]oters appear willing to gamble on new faces to replace those who,
accusations notwithstanding, have at least gained valuable job experience,"
said the ICG report, noting something of a strange win-win for Iraqis.
"[T]he current experiment in democracy holds promise," concluded the ICG
report's executive summary. "A new generation of politicians, born through
grassroots support in the electoral process and bred in councils given new
prerogatives, may start to graduate to national office - if not as soon as
parliamentary elections that tentatively scheduled for late 2009, then surely
in four years' time and onward."
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