Gaza just one of many jihadi fronts
By Walid Phares
To Osama Bin Laden, the confrontation in Gaza is not a local national issue but
part of what he coins as world jihad against the kaffirs (infidels), or
more precisely, the "Crusader-Zionist enemy". This stark ideological reminder
came through a new audio message purportedly by the leader of al-Qaeda at a
time Israeli forces and Hamas jihadis were still fighting in the enclave. The
Bin Laden address was titled "Call to jihad to stop the aggression against
Gaza" and was addressed to the ummah (Islamic nation). The following is
my analysis of this latest tape.
The usual questions first
The media's first questions were about identification and timing. Is it really
Bin Laden on the tape and if so, why is he talking now after long months of
silence? While many question the survival of
the man who ordered the September 11, 2001, attacks until now, the
counter-terrorism community as a whole still believes that Bin Laden is alive;
this is his voice, but arguments are different and diverse.
In my view, the two salient indicators about him being alive are: the fact that
he mentions contemporary events (assuming this is indeed his voice) and as
important, the issue of leadership of the organization. If he dies, it will be
known internally, and thus claims for leadership would emerge. As far as the
timing of Osama's messages, it has now taken a different character as in the
1990s and just after the al-Qaeda retreat from the Tora Bora in Afghanistan in
2001.
The commander of al-Qaeda projects himself as the supreme leader of jihad, a
sort of an undeclared caliph. His interventions are often a "state of the
union" type, dealing with the global war against infidels, focusing on
battlefields here and there. His deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, a sort of undeclared
prime minister of global jihad, takes care of expanding on issues and
responding to arguments and "questions" from the base. However, as Gaza's
battle became unavoidably the most important topic in jihadi propaganda
over the past weeks, the "virtual caliph" was pressed to utter the sublime
position, and he just did.
Gaza in context
The first batch of remarks in Osama's message draws the "big image" of the
struggle. It is aimed at putting the jihad of Gaza in its historical global
context as seen by al-Qaeda. He begins by reminding jihadi audiences that the
current Arab and Muslim regimes are penetrated by the West and are incapable of
delivering a fight against the kaffir anywhere on the globe.
"In every capital today, there is a new [former US pro-consul in Iraq Paul]
Bremer, either openly or behind closed doors, and with him there is a [former
prime minister of Iraq Iyad] Allawi who is following his orders, and another
[Ali] Sistani [Shi'ite moderate cleric] or [Sheikh Mohammed Sayyed] Tantawi
[Sunni moderate cleric] backed up by scholars and intellectuals who promote
their agendas."
To Bin Laden, the ummah can't win the war with bad apples on the inside.
He goes on: "All of these elements are enemies to our nation and the rulers
allow them access to media outlets so they can speak to the masses and
regularly deceive them while the true scholars are not allowed to conduct a
Friday sermon in a small forgotten village."
Bin Laden's priority is to have the right jihadi leaders planning and waging
the war, not the "fake" ones. Here, one can see the difference between
al-Qaeda's strategic approach and the methods used by other Islamist and
pan-Arabist regimes and forces. In short, Osama is warning that unless the
struggle is fully led by his organization, the fights here and there under the
command of failed politicians and clerics are useless.
Gaza's jihad
Reframing the current fight in Gaza, Bin Laden says: "There is only one
powerful means to restore Palestine and that is jihad in the path of god, as we
have said before." Drawing from classical Salafi jihadi doctrine, he reasserts
that the ummah is "capable of defeating the Zionist entity with its
masses and enormous resources regardless of the rulers, and in spite of the
fact that the majority of them are in collaboration with the Zionist crusader
alliance".
As I underlined in my book Future Jihad (2005), al-Qaeda's strategic
doctrine is based on the perception that the jihadis have defeated the Soviet
Union, thus they can crush the United States and its allies.
"I want to remind you of two pieces of evidence that prove that you can defeat
our enemy with very limited resources. The first is the major defeat of the
Soviet Union in Afghanistan and its subsequent fall with the permission of
Allah and with the help of the masses without any help from your governments'
armies. Since then, the flag of the Soviet Union was snatched from the world,
and has been trashed in the basket of forgetfulness, thanks be to God."
Beyond the "Soviet defeat" claim, Bin Laden asserts that the 9/11 strikes and
its aftermath is a "second evidence" of success. He reminds his listeners that
"the leaders of our region surrendered to them more and more despite its
tyranny and its full support of the Zionist entity. Right then, a few of your
own sons decided to wage jihad against this sole power and confront the Hitler
of the century, the rhinoceros of his time but we broke its horn even though he
claims that he will bring the leaders of jihad dead or alive so he can restore
the pride of America and make them an example to follow but we have drawn his
limit, killed his soldiers and targeted his people with god's permission."
A gruesome description so that he can claim that "America is faltering because
of the strikes of the mujahideen and its fallbacks". Moving ahead in his
claims, he asserts also that because of the jihadi warfare, the United States
"is bleeding humanly, politically and also financially". Evidencing his
argument, he postulates that "they are now drowning in the financial crisis
that they are even begging from smaller nations in addition to bigger nations
and therefore America is no longer feared by its enemies and not respected by
its allies".
Therefore, stretches the commander of al-Qaeda, "The biggest loser when it
comes to this American decline is the Zionist entity because they will lose the
vital veins that support its life." The Bin Ladenist logic, which derives from
Salafi combat doctrines, is historicist. Since the al Qaeda-led jihad crumbled
the Soviets in Afghanistan and the 2001 attacks against the US weakened the
last infidel superpower, therefore the "quick and tremendous decline of the
American might is one of the main reasons that the Israelis rushed their
barbaric aggression on Gaza in a desperate attempt to take advantage of the
last days of the [George W] Bush's term and the neo-conservatives, this phase
where they received more support than ever to attack Muslims all over and press
on the American dominance in the region".
The explanation advanced by the "virtual caliph" is an internationalist
approach to jihadism. He is telling Hamas that Gaza was attacked because
al-Qaeda is winning the war on the infidels, so there should not be reasons to
be very concerned.
"The forces of the White House are being smashed on the rock of the mujahideen
in Afghanistan and is drowning in the swamps of Iraq and that is why the
Israelis are rushing to annihilate their opponents in Gaza and replace them
with [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas and his so-called authority so he
can protect their backs and that is why they carried out this horrible massacre
before the end of Bush's term and because the American weakness becomes more
apparent and the veto regime falls."
So, Osama's bottom line to his constituencies is that even if the Israelis are
moving inside the enclave for now, and even if the Arab and Muslim regimes are
incapable of coming to the rescue, jihadis have to look at the big picture:
America is falling, economically first.
Economic jihad is working
The massive argument Bin Laden wants to impress on his public is an impending
financial collapse of the American titan. Heavily influenced by the jihadis on
the inside of the US, the al-Qaeda argument is full of citations:
"Here is [Joe] Biden, the vice president of the elect president, saying that
the crisis is bigger that they expected and that the American economy, all of
it, is open to collapse. Even [former US Fed chairman] Alan Greenspan said that
the great depression will look like a nice picnic when comparing it to the
current situation. The world will never go back to the same way it was before
and the United States will lose its stature as a superpower when it comes to
the financial system."
The idea is to convince the jihadis in particular and as many people possible
within the sphere of radical Islamism in general that terror options are in
fact working. "The jihad of your sons against the crusader-Zionist alliance is
one of the main factors after the blessing of Allah, of the destructive results
to our enemy and that is now showing after the seven years war and I would like
to assure you, my dear ummah, that Allah had bestowed us with endurance
that will last us to keep on the course of jihad for seven more years and other
seven and seven so know, that patience is the best weapon and faith is the best
ammunition and the flag of jihad will never fall down until judgment day."
Bin Laden wants to take credit for the economic collapse in America due to the
costly war efforts on two fronts and beyond. From the Sunni triangle to
Waziristan in Pakistan, it is indeed al-Qaeda, the Taliban and their allies who
are leading the fight. Billions of dollars are spent to contain them, reverse
them, hopelessly, argues the man on the audio.
Can America continue?
The big battle is with the head of the snake - that is the United States - as
argued by the Salafist ideologues on al-Jazeera and in chat rooms. So why worry
about Israel's invasion in Gaza, seems to hint Bin Laden? It will all be
resolved when the United States collapses, followed by Israel:
"The question here is, will America be able to continue its war against us for
more coming decades. The reports and the signs show us otherwise. There are
reports that 75% of the American people are happy that the current president is
leaving office because he dragged them into wars that they had nothing to do
with and drowned them in financial abysses that reached their ears. And he left
his successor with a heavy inheritance and he left him between two issues, the
sweetest of them is still bitter. It is like someone swallowing a dagger with
double edges, no matter how he moves, it will cut him."
Drawing again from what may seem to be a pro-jihadi analysis inside America,
al-Qaeda's leader theorizes on Obama's fate with the "war on terror". Without
naming him (yet), he projects failures for the US under the new administration
either way. The legacy of the Bush administration cannot be circumvented. He
goes:
"The worst inheritance is when someone inherits a long guerilla war with a
tough patient enemy that is financed by divine loans so if he withdraws from
the war, it would be a military defeat and if he continues the war, he will
drown in the financial crisis and it is even worse when he inherited two wars
and not just one and he is incompetent in continuing them."
The message's gist is predictive: Israel may be unleashing its power inside
Gaza under the eyes of worthless regimes, but the real response to the "kaffir
aggression" is happening elsewhere. And it is al-Qaeda that will bring divine
victory on the big satan, the US, and thus ultimately on the regional satan,
Israel.
Other fronts will open
After reframing Gaza's war in the much larger context, Bin Laden promises the
jihadi fighters in the enclave (without naming Hamas) that the "virtual
caliphate" will relieve the besieged forces strategically. He goes:
"We are on the course of opening more fronts, with Allah's permission, so what
would be better my dear ummah than putting your hand in the hands of
your sons the mujahideen so we can continue jihad against the enemies of the
faith so we can continue bleeding them out in these two wars, these two open
fronts in front of you against the crusader Zionist alliance and their agents
in the region in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Waziristan, Muslim North Africa
and in Somalia. Your duty is to support them in all means. I have the expertise
of jihad all thanks to Allah."
So in sum, the difference between the two jihadi approaches in the Gaza war is
between extreme internationalists, that is al-Qaeda, and local jihadis backed
by the Iranian competitors, that is Hamas. To the Tehran-led axis, one battle
at a time, and this time it is about Hamas in Gaza. To al-Qaeda, it is all
battles at all times, including Gaza.
Money for jihad
Bin Laden speech had another urgent component: a direct call for fundraising.
He complained so much about petrodollars spent by regimes with little
efficiency while few dinars go to al-Qaeda that could finance jihadi miracles.
Not believing in regimes, he called on Islamist businessmen to help: "I know
the financial expenses, so one businessman's donation is sufficient to help in
any of these fronts."
He seems to argue that hundreds of millions of dollars spent by the Iranian
regime and the Wahhabis are not producing what al-Qaeda can "achieve" with much
more modest funds. If only a few emirs, businessmen and generous sympathizers
would transfer some bucks.
Conclusion
Unlike analysis that rails the speech, from a reading perspective of the jihadi
mind, the tape is rich in indicators and trends. It reflects accurately the
intra-jihadi debate. It shows that we're dealing with different jihadi
approaches to Gaza's war. However, they both end up in one path: killing the
peace process, defeating Arab and Muslim moderates, eliminating Israel,
weakening Europe and crumbling America.
Dr Walid Phares is the director of the Future Terrorism Project at the
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a visiting scholar at the
European Foundation for Democracy. He is the author of The Confrontation:
Winning the War against Future.
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