SPEAKING FREELY Strolling out of Iraq
By Brian M Downing
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
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A year ago, the war in Iraq was raging and seemed certain to figure highly in
the presidential election. It didn't. Over the past year and a half, United
States casualties declined by about 80% and dire economic matters came to the
fore. The financial maelstrom is not likely to weaken as a political issue in
the next year or so, though of course foreign dynamics are even less
predictable than domestic ones.
Nonetheless, the war in Iraq is still a significant issue for the new
administration, as Iraq drains resources better allocated elsewhere and
policies there would demonstrate resolve to bring change. How will
president-elect Barack Obama handle it when he takes charge? Three forces have
opportunely come together and the new administration could take advantage of
them to
arrange an exit in a manner that benefits both American national security and
the new president’s prestige in the foreign policy realm.
Firstly, most of the American public wants a withdrawal from Iraq, or at least
a sharp reduction in US personnel there. The sentiment is rather tepid now amid
a failing economy, but it cannot be ignored without damaging the new
administration’s credibility.
Secondly, the Shi'ites, who make up over 60% of the Iraqi population, are
pressing the US to be out in three years. Shi'ite opposition to the US presence
has been present since the US crossed the sand berms along the Kuwaiti frontier
in 2003, though it was obscured by American self-congratulation on liberating
yet another land.
The Shi'ites naturally welcomed the ouster of Saddam Hussein but remained leery
of US intentions. In the summer of 2007, the nationalist cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr's representatives in parliament were building a bloc to demand a US
exit, which won considerable support though not a majority. When the troop
"surge" seemed to take sides with the despised Sunnis, Shi'ite suspicions
became more pronounced. To the US's dismay, the Shi'ite-majority government has
recently turned negotiations for a Status of Forces Agreement into a dialog to
schedule the departure of US troops.
Thirdly, Iran wants the US out, and to effect its departure has judiciously
changed its strategy from weaponry to diplomacy. The George W Bush
administration has consistently misread (or misrepresented) Iranian intentions
and failed to recognize that Iran and the US have parallel interests in the
region. Iran enjoys a great deal of influence in Iraq: its money goes to key
Iraqi politicians and parties; and its cadres assist various Shi'ite military
formations. Iran has abandoned its policy of wearing down US forces and now
works to stabilize the fractious Shi'ite parties and restrain sectarian
fighting - essential preconditions of a stable Iraq and a US departure.
It is improbable that Iran wishes to occupy Iraq. All parties in the region
know that this would lead to a devastating war and further destabilization of
the entire region. Iran seeks only stability and the absence of foreign troops
to its west. Iran looks at the US presence in Iraq much as most Americans look
upon the presence of a nearby petrochemical plant - "not in my backyard".
There are, nonetheless, many groups in Iraq that are not eager to see US troops
leave. The Kurds in the north would like to see a continued US presence in
order to defend them from numerous surrounding enemies. Indeed, some Kurdish
leaders have offered bases in their all but independent country. Sunni Arabs,
fearful of renewed sectarian warfare against the more numerous Shi'ites are at
least ambivalent about a continued US presence. But the Shi'ites are the
majority and the best organized. Having helped - albeit in a convoluted way -
to bring a measure of democracy to Iraq, the US will have to abide by decisions
reached in parliament, regardless of how they might cause administration plans
for an indefinite presence to go awry.
Against all expectation of a year ago, Iraq might not prove to be the most
arduous problems the new administration must deal with. An astute reading of
forces in the Middle East (which American foreign policy makers have only
rarely accomplished) could take advantage of these forces and make a US
departure seem like the achievement of a dexterous young president dedicated to
change and diplomacy over force.
Brian M Downing is the author of several works of political and military
history, including The Military Revolution and Political Change and
The Paths of Glory: War and Social Change in America from the Great War to
Vietnam. He can be reached at brianmdowning@gmail.com.
(Copyright 2008 Brian M Downing,)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
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