Page 2 of
2 Even more good news for
Maliki By Sami Moubayed
regime, the Kurds have been
demanding Kirkuk, something that both Sunnis and
mainstream Shi'ites curtly refuse.
Recently, however, after Maliki's main
allies in the Sadrist bloc and Iraqi Accordance
Front walked out on him, he was left with no other
option but to cuddle up to the Kurds and support
them on Kirkuk. He backed article 140, calling it
"mandatory" and called on 12,000 Arab families
brought to Kirkuk by Saddam to return to their
Arab districts. When that is complete, and the
census and
referendum are held, then
Kirkuk would become 100% Kurdish.
Saddam's
deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz once told Kurdish
politicians, "You [the Kurds] have one right: to
weep as you pass through Kirkuk [since it will
never become a Kurdish city]." But if Maliki and
Muqtada support article 140, then Kirkuk very much
might become "Kurdish".
Muqtada's
about-turn was expressed by Araji, who said: "The
article is constitutional and it should be handled
accordingly." When asked if this means giving
Kirkuk to the Kurds, Araji did not say, "No,
Kirkuk is an Arab city and will remain an Arab
city." He surprised observers by saying: "The
Iraqis are the ones who decide on this." Clearly,
Araji could not have made such a bold statement
without getting prior approval from Muqtada.
In the past, Muqtada has vehemently
opposed any division of Iraq, claiming that even
the Kurdish north (which is now Iraqi Kurdistan)
should be re-incorporated into the Iraqi republic.
Federalism was out of the question for Muqtada,
even if it meant granting another oil-rich
district in southern Iraq to the Shi'ites. Kirkuk
was - until this weekend apparently - a red line
for Muqtada.
It is doubtful whether
Muqtada really believes himself when saying,
through Araji, that article 140 is
"constitutional". That contradicts everything he
has stood for since 2003. On one level, however,
this certainly pleases Kurdish politicians like
Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani. On another, it
creates more common denominators between him and
Maliki. After a six-month divorce, the two men are
trying to find common ground, to combat the rising
influence of Sunni tribesmen in Iraqi politics.
Shortly before the heated parliamentary
debate, Maliki's security forces refrained from
arresting any members of Muqtada's Mahdi Army in
Sadr City in Baghdad. Muqtada received the message
and reciprocated from within the chamber. Both he
and the prime minister are terrified by the
American project of financing and arming Sunni
tribes to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq. The minute that
is over, Muqtada and Maliki believe, the Sunnis
will use these arms against the Shi'ites. That
explains why last week it was declared that Maliki
was bringing 18,000 militiamen (almost completely
Shi'ite) into the armed forces. He was doing this
regardless of their criminal records or military
background or lack thereof. Many of them were
members of the Mahdi Army. The argument went: "If
the Sunnis are legitimizing their arms, then so
will we."
In another gesture of goodwill
towards Maliki (who needs plenty of them to
bolster his image in the Iraqi street and among
ordinary, young Shi'ites), Muqtada's man Araji
failed to call for the downfall of the prime
minister. For more than four months, that has been
a common theme coming from Sadrist politicians,
who split from their former ally after he refused
to call for a timetable for US troop withdrawal
from Iraq, and for his close relationship with
President George W Bush. This time, however, when
asked about replacing Maliki, Araji said: "It is
possible to reshuffle this government and appoint
competent, independent ministers who are not
affiliated with parties."
There is an
enormous difference between "reshuffling" the
Maliki cabinet and replacing it altogether.
Details of this proposal, Araji added, are
currently being studied by Muqtada and will be
announced before the end of November, either from
within Parliament or from the holy city of Najaf.
If the proposal materializes, and Maliki
mends his ties with the Sadrists, amid talk that
he has already started reconciliation with the
Iraqi Accordance Front, which is planning to
rejoin his government, this would be good news for
Iraq.
It would also be good news for the
Americans, who are dying for a success story in
Iraq to prove to the world - and Democrat voters -
that Bush was right about the Iraq war in 2003,
and right about Nuri al-Maliki in 2006.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
(Copyright 2007
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