Page 2 of
2 Maliki thrown a political
lifeline By Sami Moubayed
fed up with al-Qaeda persecuting
members of the Sunni community for not waging war
on the Shi'ites and the Americans. One of the
founders, Abdul-Sattar al-Rishawi, had his
brothers and father killed by al-Qaeda.
Maliki originally opposed the idea, saying
it would be illogical to give arms and funds to
Sunni militias who would turn against the US and
the Shi'ites the minute they finished combating
al-Qaeda. US Marine Corps commanders were equally
uneasy about the
adventure, calling it "a deal
with the devil". It sounded similar to when the
Americans funded al-Qaeda to fight the Soviets in
Afghanistan in the 1980s, who immediately turned
against the US once their war with the Russians
was over.
Colonel Sean MacFarland
initiated talks with the tribal sheikhs, who
promised to do the fighting and gave birth to the
Anbar Awakening Council. Three emergency response
battalions were created and accepted by the
Ministry of Interior as legitimate defense forces.
They received cars, guns and ammunition from the
Iraqi police and US forces.
The movement
evolved into a coalition of 41 tribes from Anbar,
with a total of 70,000 members, and inspired
similar gatherings, the Salahuddine Awakening in
Salah al-Din province and Diyala Awakening in
Diyala.
The Iraqi Accordance Front dreads
the idea of being brushed aside by what it
considers Sunni lightweights like the Awakening
Council. They are new, inexperienced and have
questionable loyalties due to their links to the
Americans. Even worse, they are not the
first-class tribes of the Iraqi Sunni community.
The Front (composed only one year earlier,
in October 2005) is a coalition of three Sunni
parties; the General Council for the People of
Iraq (headed by Duleimi), the Iraqi Islamic Party
(headed by vice president Hashemi), and the
National Dialogue Council (headed by Khalaf
al-Ulayyan). It controls 44 out of 275 seats in
the Iraqi Parliament and six cabinet posts under
Maliki.
Fearing an Anbar Awakening
takeover, the Front decided to mend its bridges
with Maliki. Duleimi was sharp in outlining one of
his main conditions: there will be no ministers in
the upcoming government from the Anbar Awakening
Council. He added, "All tribes in the Western
region are in constant contact with us and
understand our position well. It is unlikely that
they will nominate names for ministerial
positions." A cabinet with some Front ministers,
Duleimi believes, is better than one that has no
Front ministers at all. It is certainly better
than having a cabinet with "imposters" from the
Anbar Awakening Council.
Meanwhile, there
is a very clear new tone in the Arab and
international press, spearheaded no doubt by both
the US and Saudi Arabia (which controls powerful
Arab newspapers and satellite channels) trying to
paint a "developing image" of Iraq, to make things
easier for the Accordance Front.
When its
ministers do return to the government, they can
tell their supporters: "Look. Things are
improving." The mass circulation Saudi daily
al-Hayat ran a story on November 11 saying that
peace and tranquility had returned to the streets
of Baghdad, thanks to Maliki's security measures.
Iraqis are now reportedly dinning at restaurants,
going to cafes and promenading the streets of
Baghdad at night, three "luxuries" they had been
deprived of since 2003.
Saudi TV channel
al-Arabiyya conducted an interview with Maliki,
giving him prime time to tell the world how
successful his security measures had been, leading
to a "77% drop in terrorist attacks" and how
harmonious his policies were becoming with those
of Iraqi Sunnis. The progress in Iraq, he said,
was "remarkable" and the country was now
"revived".
Cabinet spokesman Ali
al-Dabbagh appeared on the same channel, saying
Iraq has "defeated the forces of darkness" and
returned to "its glory as the beautiful city of
One Thousand and one Nights".
Several Arab
dailies have also emphasized the number of
detainees, mainly Sunni, who have been released
from US prisons in Iraq, thanks to the efforts of
Maliki. They currently stand at 75 prisoner
releases per day since July, well over 10,000.
Even Iran, which is watching Maliki's re-birth
with interest, although it is not pleased by the
rapprochement with the Front, noted, through
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Husseini,
that "Nuri al-Maliki has become stronger". This
strength, they believe, is behind "the improved
security situation in Iraq".
According to
official numbers, there were 323 violent attacks
in Baghdad in October, compared to 1,134 in June.
According to an Oil Ministry official quoted by
the Associated Press, "The days of violence and
chaos are numbered."
That might prove true
if Maliki manages to please the Accordance Front,
and continue to elicit support from the Awakening
Council - and reward them for it - without
upsetting other Sunni groups. He has to walk a
delicate tightrope between the two Sunni camps,
and if either party abandons him it could prove
fatal. A Front walkout - again - would be a
political crisis for Maliki (given their
parliamentary numbers) while an Awakening walkout
would spell chaos and a breakdown of security.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
(Copyright 2007
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