Page 2 of 2 THE ROVING
EYE Bush's Turkey
shoot By Pepe Escobar
Kurdistan for northwest Iran.
That's what Osman Ocalan, brother of
jailed-for-life PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, and a
founding member of the PKK, told The Independent's
Patrick Cockburn in Irbil.
As Asia Times
Online has reported, the CIA has armed and
financed the Iranian arm of the PKK, the PJAK, in
its attacks
against the Iranian
government. Not only does Tehran share the same
plight with Ankara, it would also expect Baghdad's
cooperation on the issue. No wonder the Bush
administration - for which the PKK are
"terrorists" and PJAK are not - had to squash the
initiative.
But with 15 million Kurds in
eastern Turkey, 5 million in Iraqi Kurdistan, 4
million in northwest Iran and 1 million in Syria,
"the partition of Kurdistan works in our
interests", Ocalan said, referring to PKK's
extreme mobility. The Bush administration for its
part is not exactly dispirited by the PKK's
ability to "destabilize" Iran or Syria.
Erdogan's priorities, on the other hand,
as revealed once again this Monday in an interview
with Claudio Gallo from Italian daily La Stampa,
are admission to the European Union, Turkey's
territorial integrity ("if only Baghdad had the
will do dismantle the terrorist bases in the
north") and the Turkish public's feelings about
it. So between Bush and a hard place, he'd rather
choose the latter, in the form of a strategic
alliance with both Iran and Syria to combat what
Ankara sees as dangerous Kurdish separatism.
Turkey and Iran - commercially and now politically
- are getting closer and closer.
Washington is more the loser because
virtually no one in Turkey is shedding tears for
what happens to their 57-year-old alliance.
According to the June 2007 Pew Global Attitudes
Project, no less than 83% of Turkey's public
opinion had an "unfavorable view" of the US, ahead
of Egypt and Jordan (both at 78%) and Pakistan
(68%). All of these governments - but not their
populations - are US allies. It's fair to assume
these numbers are rising.
Russia for its
part cannot but applaud the newfound
Turkish-Persian entente. Non-stop Bush
administration heavy handedness is actually fast
erasing historical grievances and paving the way
towards a new Eurasian configuration, with
Turkey-Iran getting closer to Russia-China.
Dance, Pandora, dance Bush's
invasion and occupation of Iraq opened a Pandora's
box that only now starts to be seen for its true
incendiary potential. Turkey threatening to strike
Iraq to protect its national security is a carbon
copy of Bush invading Iraq in 2003. Moreover,
"Iraq" is actually no more; it's been smashed into
three virtually independent statelets - exactly
what Israel wanted in the first place.
Israel is so keen on an independent Iraqi
Kurdistan because this is the way towards a new
Kirkuk-Haifa oil pipeline (the old one was shut
down in 1948) - which will pass though three
American bases and cross US-friendly Jordan. A
complicating factor is that at the same time Tel
Aviv avidly coddles racist, Kurd-hating Turkish
generals.
Turkey badly needs oil, as much
as Israel. Turkey most of all cannot stand an
independent Iraqi Kurdistan because it is focused
on Mosul and Kirkuk's oil wealth. For any Turk
with an Ottoman Empire memory, Mosul's oil fields,
only 120km from the border, should belong to
Turkey; after all they were stolen by the British
Empire as it drew the artificial borders of Iraq
in the early 1920s.
Both the treaties of
Sevres (1920) and Lausanne (1923) did everything
to exclude Mosul and Kirkuk - both with a Turkman
majority - from Turkey, so the new republic would
be deprived of oil. It's not hard to imagine
Turkish generals dreaming of a modern Turkey
swimming in oil wealth as a certified regional
superpower, spreading its wings over the Middle
East, the Balkans, the Caucasus and as far as
Central Asia. The equation is inescapable: if
Washington could invade Iraq to grab its oil, why
not neighbor Turkey, who owned the oil in the
first place?
Bye bye
Washington The astute Erdogan knew even
before setting foot in Washington that the
solution to the Turkey-PKK crisis lay in a frank
Washington-Tehran dialogue.
But for that
to happen, he knew Bush and the neo-cons would
have to drop their faithful ally the KRG and their
useful destabilizing force, the PKK/PJAK. And they
would also have to abandon the pretence that Iraq
is "stabilized" while at the same time threatening
to attack Iran, which is a regional power not
interested in any destabilization.
Unlike
scurrilous President General Musharraf in failed
state Pakistan, Erdogan is an elected leader whose
public opinion will seriously fault him for not
caring about the national interest. So for the
moment he is "happy" with Bush's sound bite. He'll
wait - for just a little while. If nothing moves,
Turkey will strike. Hard. And Washington won't
even get a phone call.
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