Page 2 of
2 Iran looms over Turkey crisis
diplomacy By M K Bhadrakumar
that is central to Israel's
strategy toward Iran. Without doubt, Israel enjoys
extraordinarily close ties with the Kurds of
northern Iraq who have lately been taunting and
bleeding Turkey.
No way to treat an
ally Erdogan told the Sunday Times, "We
have told President Bush numerous times how
sensitive we are about this [PKK] issue but
up
till now we have not had a single positive result.
America is our strategic partner. But in northern
Iraq we feel that both the terrorist organization
and the administration there are sheltering behind
America … It makes us sad to see American weapons
being found in the possession of the terrorist
organization acting against Turkey."
Erdogan couldn't be grandstanding. The
allegation is very serious. Thus, we have a
curious situation in which PKK terrorists,
equipped and trained by hidden forces, launch
operations inside Turkey and retreat to their safe
havens in northern Iraq. But the US opposes any
retaliation by Turkey that might affect the
stability and tranquillity of northern Iraq. Yet
Turkey has been one of the staunchest allies of
the US for the past half a century.
What
is slowly emerging is that Washington has begun
bargaining with Turkey. The timing of the raking
up of the controversy over the Armenian massacre
of 1915 in the US Congress reinforces suspicion
that there is a pattern here.
The fact
remains that Turkey's regional policies have
changed course under the Justice and Development
Party (AKP) government. Ankara has become
noticeably circumspect in the recent years toward
the US's regional policies. Apart from the
Islamist roots of the AKP government, other
factors have come into play. Turkey's resounding
"no" to the US request for support during the
invasion of Iraq in 2003; the chill in Turkey's
relations with Israel; the dealings of the AKP
government with the Hamas leadership in Palestine;
the warming of ties between Turkey and Iran and
Syria; Ankara's calibrated distancing from the US
strategy in Iraq; the strengthening of Russia-Iran
cooperation; the growing flexibility in Turkey's
relations with the West and a newfound proximity
between Turkey and the East: all these added up as
complicating factors in US-Turkey relations over
the past four years.
All the same, Turkey
remains crucial for US strategic interests in the
Middle East and the Black Sea regions. There is
added urgency if a US military strike against Iran
is to be mounted by Washington in the coming
months.
To be sure, the PKK raids from
northern Iraq are forcing Ankara to make an
existential choice. Ankara is on a painful
learning curve. Unseen hands are compelling it to
turn to the West and knock on Washington's door
for help.
There is no doubt that the
cascading PKK violence is beginning to hurt
Turkey. In the words of opposition leader Deniz
Baykal, "The knife has reached the bone." Ankara
is being made to realize that it simply cannot
afford to have an independent foreign policy in
the region. The bottom line is, Turkey forms part
of the Western security system and the bondage is
like a Catholic marriage. A divorce is simply
inconceivable.
Britain steps
in From such a perspective, it stands to
reason that in the true spirit of the good guy,
Britain is stepping in with loud affirmations of
sympathy for Turkey's suffering. On the eve of
Erdogan's arrival in London on Monday, and just
prior to emplaning for Washington, Miliband gave a
resounding statement of support to Turkey. He
said, "Let us be clear. The PKK is trying to
destroy the Turkish government's efforts to
improve the situation of people in the southeast
of the country, provide conflict between Turkey
and Iraq, and damage regional stability."
He called on "all in the region,
especially Iraq, to express their disgust at these
[PKK] attacks. I call on the international
community to be unequivocal in its condemnation of
PKK terrorism and to support Turkey in restoring
stability."
Following Erdogan's talks with
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the two
countries signed on Tuesday a strategic
partnership agreement, which inter alia commits
Britain to support and maintain the momentum of
Turkey's European Union accession talks. The two
sides have vowed to promote trans-Atlantic
partnership and improve cooperation in global
security, especially in the fight against
terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation; and
promote regional stability and peace, especially
in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
But
what remains unanswered is whether the Turkish
agenda and the Anglo-American agenda in Iraq are
fundamentally reconcilable. Any partition of Iraq
will impact on Turkey's national interests. Turkey
cannot but react to the emergence of a Kurdish
entity on its borders. There is no certainty what
form a Turkish reaction may take. Again, Turkish
public opinion will overwhelmingly remain hostile
toward a US military strike against Iran. The
Ankara government cannot remain impervious to the
public opinion. That means, in essence, Ankara
would have a problem meeting the expectations of
the US (and Israel) to become a "balancer"
vis-a-vis Iran on the Middle East chessboard.
A US settlement Least of all,
as Erdogan told the Sunday Times, "In our country
a serious wave of anti-Americanism is fast gaining
a momentum all of its own. This did not happen
overnight for no reason. The developments in Iraq
are very important here."
Erdogan went on
to explain why this is so: "The United States came
to Iraq from tens of thousands of kilometers away.
Why and for what purpose it came I cannot say. But
if you ask me my personal opinion, there is no
success that I can see. There is just the death of
tens of thousands of people. There is just an Iraq
whose entire infrastructure and superstructure has
collapsed. These need to be correctly evaluated."
That is why Bush's apocalyptic vision of
an impending World War III will not easily
convince Turkey. How to make Turkey bend to the US
regional policies in the Middle East remains an
open question. The PKK card may have outlived its
utility for the present. From now on, the law of
diminishing returns will be at work. The better
course will be the British way of doing harsh
things - first, completely identifying with
Turkey's sorrows, and then making an offer that
Ankara may be hard-pressed to refuse.
But
the buck ultimately stops in Washington. The key
meeting will be on November 5 when Erdogan sits
down with Bush. Erdogan will want to hear from
Bush that Washington is determined to rein in
Barzani and the PKK so that a new Iraq war can be
avoided. The pashas in Ankara, cautious by
temperament, will await the outcome of the
meeting. By beating the war drums in the meantime,
Turkey has called attention to its demand that PKK
leaders based in northern Iraq must be handed
over.
Tehran, too, will be watching
closely. Its worst fear will be that a
Bush-Erdogan settlement could always have a hidden
clause regarding World War III. The heart of the
matter is that unfortunately, Turkey and the US
are seeking mutual concessions rather than
addressing the real issues confronting the region.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
over 29 years, with postings including India's
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
(Copyright 2007 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
